Roto Riteup: March 30, 2013
Two things that are generally overrated: Five Guys and Nutella
Two things that are impossibly underrated: The weekend and naps — especially naps on the weekend
On the agenda today:
1. Mike Fiers officially announced as the fifth starter
2. Brian Roberts‘ role in Baltimore
3. Detroit’s closer carosel
Mike Fiers to the rotation
In the wake of the Kyle Lohse signing, some were wondering which current member of the Milwaukee Brewers rotation would get a demotion to the bullpen. As it turns out, Mike Fiers is safe and it is Chris Naverson to the pen. I’ve been touting Fiers almost all off season, so this is the right move in my eyes. Fiers can be grabbed in over 70% of Yahoo! leagues and nearly all (97%) of ESPN leagues. By the time the All-Star break rolls around, I fully expect his ownership rate to be in the mid 70’s.
Brian Roberts in Baltimore
For a trip down random fantasy lane, I will always remember Roberts for his peak ranging from 2004-09. Over that span his worst season had him at 85 runs and 36 steals, with a .286 batting average to boot. Injuries have taken their toll on him over the years, and this year we have Roberts healthy for opening day, but he now finds himself in the 9-hole as opposed to his customary lead off position. Roberts hasn’t hit anything than first (outside of a pinch hitting role in 2010) since 2009 — where he hit three-hole three times in September. He is largely unowned (just 10% in Yahoo! and 5% on ESPN) and will have to work his way up the Baltimore batting order before he finds his way on to fantasy rosters.
Closer by committee in Detroit
With Thursday’s demotion of Bruce Rondon to Triple-A, the Detroit Tigers will be doing a closer by committee for the early going. Joaquin Benoit may have the inside track to be the primary closer, as he has generally pitched in the eighth inning in his time in Detroit. Benoit’s strikeout numbers have been impressive — particularly last season — where his strikeout rate was 25.3% powered by his incredible 17.3% SwStr%, the third highest mark among qualified relievers. That being said, it is my belief that Al Alburquerque will end with the most saves this season. Al-Al underwent elbow surgery (not Tommy John’s, but a stress fracture) and missed the majority of the 2012 season, but came back successfully enough to earn a playoff roster spot. The club clearly has faith in him as a high leverage reliever and it isn’t hard to see why. Alburquerque’s career 15.8% SwStr% is thanks in large part a combination of his 95 mph fastball and wipe out 85 mph slider. If we’re judging who has the best “stuff” in the bullpen, my vote would go to Al. The sole concern regarding him is that he hasn’t even pitched 15 game innings since his surgery. How they utilize him in the early going will tell an awful lot on how much faith Jim Leyland has in him this season. Grab Al where you can and expect some saves and great strikeout numbers. His walks will hurt, but despite a career 5.88 BB/9 he has just a 1.13 career WHIP. He doesn’t limit the free pass but he tends to strikeout enough batters or induce a ground ball to nullify erase the base runner.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
I like Fiers. This season will be interested to see how he performs. Another young pitcher I like is Archer from TB. What do you think of his chances to contribute this season? Late season call up? By May?
I really like Archer, the problem is, it is Tampa Bay. They are notorious for keeping MLB ready talent in the minors, particularly pitching. Given that they started Archer’s service clock last year, I don’t expect him to up until well past May. Maybe mid July?
You, sir, are 100% correct about Five Guys and Nutella.
I tip my cap to you sir. I like the cut of your jib!
I question the author’s bias towards people with five letter names ending in “iers”.
And I would’ve gotten away with it too, if it weren’t you meddling kids!
Any thoughts on Bryan Villareal in Detroit? Seems to have great stuff and numbers but gets no mention at all.
Good point, yeah, he should be in the discussion to get some saves too.
Nutella cannot possibly be underrated because it is the best. If anything it is underrated.
I disagree, my good sir. Good, but nothing to write home about.
How dare you slander the good name of Nutella in the Roto Riteup!
I still think Phil Coke has a decent shot at that job. He closed last year after Valverde shit the bed, so he’s earned some cred in that role.
I see Coke has more of a LOOGY type than a closer. His numbers vs RHB were ugly last season.
I liked Fiers going into my drafts too. As soon a Lohse signed, Yahoo updated Fiers’ status as being moved to the ‘pen. I, being the prudent owner impatiently waiting for the season to start, quickly dropped Fiers and grabbed Vargas. 24 hours later, Vargas just put up his final outing where he got rocked for 8 runs (I know it doesn’t mean much, but it doesn’t help my psyche) and Fiers is officially in the rotation. Now it’s pray for Fiers to pass through waivers or burn my 4 spot on the wire.
I shall burn a candle, for your loss. We’ve all done that sort of thing before.
Yahoo got me on that too. I ended up picking up Peralta and now I’m waiting to see what happens. Got hung up with Andrew Cashner too.
The worst part is when you’re absolutely sure that the big league club won’t make the one decision that bones you. Like owning Ben Revere for three dollars in an AL-only league, only to see him get shipped to the NL. Sigh.
I’ll give you five guys, that’s pretty spot on. But your disparagement of nutella is unforgivable
Nutella isn’t as bad as the What-A-Burger of spreads, but it is the Five Guys of spreads. For sure.
I thought this Roto Riteup had a suspiciously large number of comments, but then the first line of the article explained why!
Is Bauer a contributor,this season? 130 innings?
Sounds about right. We’ll see if Kazmir is for real or if he turns back into a pumpkin. Honestly, it isn’t like Bauer doesn’t have things to work on in the minors. His walk rate won’t cut it in the show.
Brandon Maurer? Is he the real thing?
I think he’ll be a “better in real life than in fantasy” type player. His strikeouts plummeted in High-A and Double-A, I assume a bit of game theory caught up to him. More disciplined hitters will tattoo his mistakes and lay off of pitches that he might be used to getting swings from. I’d hold off on grabbing him.
Any idea why Maurer isn’t available in Yahoo formats but he’s available in ESPN and CBS?
No idea, maybe Yahoo! is just slow to add him? I know that ESPN and Yahoo! calculate ownership rates differently, so maybe it’s just one of those things.
Cashner? Will he be a worthwhile starting option? How can SD keep him out of the rotation?
Eventually (in my opinion right now) yes, Cashner is a viable MLB starter. The Padres want to slowly work him up to that, but I really don’t think it will take too long. Tyson Ross isn’t go to be in his way for too long.
Dave,
Thanks for your responses. You always have a lot of interesting observations. Look forward to reading more of your articles.
Thanks for the kind words Jay! Zach and I will be bringing you the Roto Riteup everyday this season!
impossibly underrated: In n Out Double Doublesfollowed by naps on the weekend
“Is this heaven?”
“No sir, this is In-n-Out.”
“Ehh, close enough.”
You know how to make a Five-Guys burger much better? Cover it with Nutella, of course.
Interesting comments on Fiers. Got him in NL-only auction league and hope you are correct. I have him as a number 5 SP’er even in NL-only auction league, however.
Why are you so confident in his 2013 production?
Both his FIP and xFIP were below his ERA. I worry about this HR/FB rate, as he is a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher. Of course, his BABIP should be lower, as fly balls have a lower BABIP than grounders. All in all, I expect a mid 3.60’s ERA with about 160+ strikeouts.
I don’t know how highly rated Five Guys is at large, but I really like ’em. Mostly it’s the ability to mix and match from a variety of toppings, and the giant greasy bags of fries they give you. Peanuts are mostly just a gimmick, but nice to keep you occupied while you wait. And, especially in NJ, the way they yell “two patties!” is hilarious.