You can tell we’re all itching for pitchers and catchers to report when multiple RotoGraphs writers start jumping all over a trade between the A’s and the Astros that doesn’t really have any marquee talent to discuss. But hey, we’re almost there. Just days away, in fact. But while others handle the power bat of Chris Carter, the potential of Brad Peacock and the dregs of what’s left in Houston, I’m going to take a look at how Jed Lowrie’s arrival in Oakland is going to impact the A’s, and how, for fantasy purposes, the outlook isn’t so good. Read the rest of this entry »

Jurickson Profar has a strong chance at being the consensus best prospect in baseball entering the season. Both MLB.com and ESPN’s Keith Law agree, ranking him in the top slot. And while Baseball America hasn’t divulged their list yet, Profar graces the cover of this year’s Prospect Handbook. For FG+ this season, which you should buy if you haven’t already, I did an article looking at whether it’s worth it to draft prospects in a re-draft league. Since I found playing time to be a major factor in whether a prospect can be successful during their rookie year, I did not look at whether the elite prospects were more likely to have a successful fantasy season. Profar may enter the year as baseball’s best prospect, but does that mean anything for his fantasy value?

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In what is likely to be my last hitter Pod Projection, Desmond Jennings topped the list of remaining vote getters. The sophomore was a bit of a disappointment last season and was hampered by a knee injury that cost him nearly a month. I have been a big fan of Jennings in the past. Let’s find out if we can expect him to rebound this year and enter the upper echelon of fantasy outfielders.

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Monday’s surprising Oakland/Houston trade has generated a lot of buzz in baseball circles. While most of the discussion centered around Jed Lowrie and Chris Carter, one interesting name headed out of the Bay Area is Brad Peacock, former Nationals blue-chipper who was moved to Oakland last offseason in the Gio Gonzalez deal. Many may remember there was a fair amount of sleeper buzz last spring surrounding Washington’s former number one prospect, even after he was slated to start the season in Triple-A. Unfortunately, he just never seemed to put it together. Peacock, who seemed to be a candidate to be the first recall after the Athletics broke camp, eventually struggled to a 6.01 ERA for the Sacramento River Cats, never getting the call to make the trip short trip west down I-80.

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In the two drafts the Rotographs staff has done so far this winter, James McDonald hasn’t exactly been a hot commodity. In the snake draft, he was skipped entirely and he hardly fared better in the auction, where he went for just a dollar. Mike Minor, on the other hand, came off the board in the 15th round in the snake and was one of the intriguing $9 pitchers from the auction. Simply put, were a majority of drafts to happen in this week, Minor would be rostered in pretty much every applicable league while McDonald would probably enter the season as a waiver wire option.

Looking solely at the duo’s final numbers, that wide of a split seems odd. Minor looks the better of the two in this light, but the difference looks like it should be measured in rounds or dollars not drafted or not. Take a look: Read the rest of this entry »

The Houston Astros’ shortstop is gone! Long live the Houston Astros’ shortstop.

In all honesty, Jed Lowrie probably wasn’t the kind of guy you build a dynasty around. Call him Edward VIII — to avoid the problems that might arise from entrusting your rebuilding team in the hands of a capable, but oft-injured shortstop, Lowrie abdicated his throne as Edward once did. Then again, his successor may not last long either. Well, Tyler Greene, Jake Elmore and Marwin Gonzalez are all under team control until the end of the 2016 season, but there’s the matter of the other challengers for the title. The Houston Astros have at least three top prospects at the position, including their number one (or two) prospect and last year’s number one overall pick, Carlos Correa.

No matter. In order to put one foot in front of the other and keep an orderly society, all we need to know is who will be on top of the heap this year.

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Last night the Athletics and Astros agreed to a five-player trade that, in fantasy essence, swapped Jed Lowrie for Chris Carter. Mike Podhorzer already looked at what the move to Houston means for Carter earlier this morning, but the trade also impacts the first base situation in Oakland. Based on their success last year, it seemed likely that manager Bob Melvin would again platoon Carter (a right-handed bat) with Brandon Moss (a left-handed bat). Now he’s left without an obvious right-handed first base bat.

I wrote about Moss last week, explaining why I’m pretty skeptical about him heading into 2013. It’s not that he’s a bad player or anything, just that I don’t expect him to perform anywhere near the 40+ homer, 162 wRC+ pace he played at in the second half. He is a nice fantasy bench piece given his 1B and OF eligibility, but not someone I would stick in my lineup everyday because he himself was not going to play everyday for the Athletics. The trade could change that.

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Before diving back into this, after our long weekend away, I want to let you know what to expect this (hopefully this) week: Part 5 is clearly here right now, and Mike and I are working on parts 6 and 7 as we speak. In Part 6, I’ll be looking at the equations Mike came up with the other day along with one other equation that smarter statistical minds than mine are currently developing. Ideally, part 6 will be something of a wrap on our attempt to find an equation for expected HR/FB within a season. In Part 7, Mike will take a deeper look at a handful of players, and see how useful this new equation really is.

Today, I’ll be looking at another piece of the puzzle – what happens in future years to guys who show breakout distance on their fly balls.

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The ottoneu keeper deadline was jam-packed this year, at least judging by the activity in my deadline chat, the questions popping up on Twitter and all the action in my leagues. Across the Original ottoneu league, the second FanGraphs Staff League, and the FanGraphs Experts League alone, 223 players were cut on January 31, and 29 more players changed hands via trade over the final couple days of roster action.

As you all recover from what I am sure was a similarly hectic deadline rush, I am going to try to provide some insights into what happened a) in my three leagues and b) across the universe of leagues to give you a sense of what the ottoneu-verse looks like today.

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Yesterday, seemingly out of nowhere, the Astros acquired first baseman Chris Carter from the A’s. Carter was a one-time top prospect in the White Sox system, boasting elite power and above average plate patience. Of course, that came with its share of strikeouts, making Carter the prototypical slugging first base prospect. Carter is no spring chicken though, he is already 26 years old as he moves onto his third team. Sadly, last year represented his most expanded audition in the big leagues, even though he recorded just 260 plate appearances. His massive power was on full display, though, as he launched 16 homers to notch a .275 ISO. So now in Houston, does he shoot up sleeper lists?

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