Just a couple of quick hitters on the final evening of the 2012 regular season:

• Fernando Rodney dished one-third of an inning tonight for his 48th save of the season. In doing so, Rodney lowered his ERA to 0.60 — the lowest ERA for a relief pitcher in MLB history with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. He just edged Dennis Eckersley’s 0.61 ERA effort in 1990. The Rays hold a $2.5 million option for Rodney’s services in 2013, which will likely be picked up.
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Like many of my fellow RotoGraph writers, I attempted some bold predictions before the season began. Here is how I failed.

Brennan Boesch will be a Top 30 fantasy player.

I missed big here. Using ESPN’s player rater, it has him at #190 among just hitters. I liked the idea of the player before before Fielder and Cabrera having a good season. The problem was that no one on the Tigers wanted to step up. Eight Tigers batted in the #2 hole with Berry, Dirks, Boesch and Infante all hitting there in at least 20 games. As a group they hit .258/.313/.400. What a wasted opportunity for some fantasy player to be a Run producing machine. 0-1

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Depending on how close a race you are in, whether it’s a roto league or head to head, this is your last-ditch effort to finish on top. If you need strikeouts to scratch out a point, then you load up on potential strikeout pitchers. If you need to add a few ticks to your team OBP, then so long as it isn’t a keeper league, ditch everyone that isn’t contributing and get someone else in there who is. This is obviously nothing new and I’m not offering up some secret advice. I’m just trying to encourage you to keep the fight goign for one more day. Do everything you can and walk away from the season with your head held high. Read the rest of this entry »

Alrighty then, let’s just get the self-flagellation out of the way so I can enjoy the playoffs. Back in March, I was cajoled into providing my ten bold predictions for the 2012 season, and looking back on them, I think we can successfully get me out of the bold prediction business.

This will be quick and painful for me, but perhaps it will give you some amusement to take your mind off of any fantasy baseball related failures that this day concludes.

1. Dan Haren will win 20 games.

Since I’m going to take a beating here, I might as well tell you that I picked Dan Haren for the AL Cy Young too. It was an argument wrapped up in his rotten luck with run support in 2011, and figuring the addition of some guy named Al might help that, I thought he’d have a darn fine chance of racking up the wins. He rewarded me with 12 and what was probably his worst season since he was a rookie with the Cardinals. Super.

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A week ago I identified several American League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests an imminent strikeout rate surge. I then took a detour to look at both sides of the coin for National League starters, and now I’m back for the potential K/9 decliners in the AL. As a reminder, the league average for American League starting pitchers with a minimum of 120 innings pitched this year is a 7.0 K/9 and 8.5 SwStk%.

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Today marks the last day of the fantasy baseball season. To those of you who are in the finals of a head-to-head league or are in a neck and neck race in a roto league, I wish you the best of luck.

• Someone who I feel is consistently under-rated — even by me — is Denard Span. He had a two hit game yesterday afternoon and now his average sits at .285 on the season. He has also stolen 17 bases and while his runs scored is lower than I’d like from a lead-off hitter, he still makes for a useful fantasy cog. Cheap steals and average? Where do I sign? I can usually count on Span being available to grab after a draft, and he is available right now in 87% of Yahoo! leagues and 80% of ESPN leagues.
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• Andrew Bailey wasn’t too effective this evening, letting five batters reach base and giving up two runs en route to a blown save against the Yankees. In fact, since returning to the Red Sox from surgery on his thumb Bailey hasn’t really pitched well with a 5.05 xFIP in 15.1 innings pitched thus far. However, with only one game remaining in the season, I don’t think Bailey is in danger of losing his job in 2012 and should receive a save opportunity if one arises tomorrow night. Also, based on the Red Sox roster, it should be Bailey’s job to lose in 2013.

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The season, sadly, is drawing to a rather rapid close for everyone, but for some players, it has already ended. In April or May, season-ending injuries bring to mind things like a torn UCL, a horrific knee injury, or a blown out shoulder; now that it’s October, a bruise in the wrong place could be enough to shelve a player until spring training starts. It’s a little depressing, frankly, but all good things must end and this end means the playoffs are nigh.

Before we get there, however, there is a little matter of the fantasy season to finish. For anyone still contesting a title, here are the players I would avoid playing if at all possible.  Read the rest of this entry »

Personally, I hold the old-school belief that the well-rounded player with speed and defense is the best selection for the MVP hardware, but that’s of no concern until I have a vote. In the meantime, I’m left wondering what this debate means for fantasy.

We fantasy-obsessed know that this debate foreshadows a more important one: who should be the number one pick next year. Maybe the things we know about the players now can help us make that decision a little easier, but the conversation can still tell us something about the things we value in the fantasy game.

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As Eno pointed out yesterday, streaming on the final day of the season can be a tricky proposition. Teams headed for the playoffs might pull back a starter or at least give him an early hook while team that are out of it could leave a pitcher in far longer than he should be left in (rember Edwin Jackson’s last start?). But if you can grab even the slightest advantage in your final head to head match-up or you can eke out another point or two in your roto league, you’ve got to do whatever it takes to give yourself the best possible chance to win. Here are some names to consider here at the end… Read the rest of this entry »