• When the Yankees took the field in the top of the ninth inning up six runs, I don’t think Rafael Soriano was expecting to be finishing the game tonight, but finished he did. After Cory Wade gave up four runs, Soriano came on to get the final out, recording his 16th save of the season. Soriano has done a great job closing for the Yankees this year but his ERA (1.63) is lower than you would expect (3.84 xFIP) because he has been very fortunate with fly balls leaving the park. Soriano has yet to give up a home run in 2012, a trend which certainly won’t continue in Yankee Stadium for a pitcher who isn’t particularly great at killing worms (38.1% GB%). Still, Girardi has confidence in Soriano who maintains a firm grasp on the job and should hold onto it even if and when regression hits him. David Robertson has pitched well in his first four games back from the DL, giving up one run in 3.2 innings pitched while striking out six batters and although he may be the better pitcher, Soriano is the one who will continue to get saves for the rest of the year.

• After blowing three saves in his last six outings, Aroldis Chapman looked right on track tonight, striking out three batters while walking one in the ninth inning for his ninth save of the season. Chapman’s peripherals remain jaw dropping with a 15.85 K/9 and a 1.88 xFIP and while baseball fans may drool at the thought of Chapman’s skills in the starting rotation, it looks like he will remain closing games for Cincinnati. Sean Marshall owners speculating on a closing controversy stemming from a few bad outings by Chapman can stop speculating as he’s not likely to gain the job. However, for ratios and strikeouts, you will struggle to find a better reliever than Marshall this year– Marshall has a 2.14 xFIP and a strikeout rate over 11 (11.17 K/9), numbers that may pale in comparison to his teammate Chapman but still rank in the upper echelon of the league.

• Addison Reed gave up two runs in the ninth inning against the Twins tonight but was still able to hold on for his 10th save of the year. Reed has been a little disappointing since taking over closing duties in Chicago with a pedestrian 4.09 xFIP but he still has a 10.00 K/9, and his competition (Matt Thornton and Hector Santiago) isn’t exactly breathing down his neck, so Reed’s grasp on the job remains fairly firm.

• Jose Valverde has declared himself OK after his wrist sprain and entered tonight’s game in the bottom of the eighth inning down two runs pitching a perfect inning against the Rangers. While Valverde looks to be healed, it will be interesting to see if Jim Leyland goes to Valverde in another low leverage situation before putting him back in for the ninth inning. For now, I would be sure to hold onto Joaquin Benoit until Valverde is converting saves consistently again.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Jason Grilli (PIT) vs. PHI

The Pirates have their ace on the hill tomorrow in Jason McDonald and while the Phillies may be starting the 34 year old journeyman Raul Valdes, a pitching machine would fair pretty well against the Pirates lineup which is a long way to say that this game should be another close matchup with Jason Grilli getting a chance to pitch tomorrow night. Grilli has been sensational this year with a 2.69 xFIP and a fantastic 14.13 K/9 that is supported by his top notch SwStr% (15.2%) which ranks sixth in the majors among all qualified relievers.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Jared Burton (ESPN: 1 percent owned; Yahoo!: 6 percent owned)

On Monday alone, Glen Perkins was added in nearly 9000 Yahoo! fantasy leagues as the Twins’ usual closer, Matt Capps, hit the DL with shoulder inflammation. It was a reasonable move to make, Perkins was the Twins’ set-up man both this season and last season, so it would make good sense for him to get the bulk of the save chances… except for the fact that the Twins just do not seem to trust Perkins at the end of games. There isn’t a good statistical reason for it, but when closers are involved, the numbers seldom add up. Perkins has been solid as a set-up man, striking out just shy of a third of the hitters he has faced this season and while, at 1.34, his WHIP isn’t what one might hope out of their closer, there’s no reason to believe he couldn’t do the job an inning later than he has been. Read the rest of this entry »

The love of getting things on the cheap is built into all of us. Garage sales. Half-off department store blowouts. Clipping coupons. We love it. It makes us feel like we got away with something. It’s almost a badge of honor. Oh, you like these jeans? They were $100.00 but I got them on sale for $49.99. BOOM. The same feeling exists in the world of fantasy sports as well. You’re happy with the production of Edwin Encarnacion, but you’re really happy that you got him in the 10th round, and tell your friends as much.

On that note, there are deals out there. Today we’re focusing on speed, where several players can provide stolen bases for the bargain hunting consumer.

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Look at Jesus Montero. You probably aren’t excited by the .263/.301/.406 work, or the eight home runs. It’s just not a strong package, not after all that hype.

As that hype creates the context that has led to disappointment — an emotion that’s running high among his owners if twitter is to be believed — there are other ways to place Jesus Montero that make him more attractive. Context is key.

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Other than perhaps Baltimore’s Dylan Bundy, there’s maybe no pitching prospect in the minors more highly touted than Arizona’s Trevor Bauer, the third pick in last year’s draft. After being pulled from his Triple-A start following only 50 pitches on Sunday, Bauer is reportedly on his way to the bigs to start for Arizona against the Braves on Thursday, kicking off what is sure to be years of me confusing him with Diamondback rotation mate Trevor Cahill.

Bauer comes up to replace the recently disabled Joe Saunders in an Arizona rotation which is suddenly in need of help. Cahill’s been fine, and Wade Miley has been a shocking success story, but Daniel Hudson has been injured & ineffective while Ian Kennedy has been unable to recreate his magical 2011. That’s after Josh Collmenter flamed out early in the season, and with Saunders on the shelf, there’s great opportunity here for Bauer to take advantage of.

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At this time last year, well actually about a week earlier, we did a series of Bullish/Bearish articles where we each picked one side or the other on a particular player of note.  My Bearish on Carlos Santana piece wasn’t convincing anyone and some even pointed out that perhaps yours truly was just taking one for the team here and picking a side he may not wholeheartedly believe in.  But here we are a little more than a year later and while I still have hope for confidence in another second half surge, I look back on that article and can sympathize with the guy who wrote it. Read the rest of this entry »

Without any major news impacting the ottoneu player pool this week, no one is attracting the kind of attention afforded to Lonnie Chisenhall or Matt Adams the last two times I wrote this column. But there are auctions on-going and four players have stepped out ahead of the pack.

Two relievers, a starter and an outfielder are atop the list of most current auctions, and if you are deciding whether or not to bid on this fab four, I’ll let you know what I am planning for each of them.

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Did you notice the new FanGraphs Q&A? There’s a fantasy section and everything, so you should go ask questions there after you read today’s Roto Riteup.

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• As Colin mentioned in the Bullpen Report last night, the “late scuttlebutt” is true and Matt Capps has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.  It is unknown how long Matt Capps will be out, but what we do know is that shoulder injuries can get pretty tricky, so we can’t assume Capps will be back in action as soon as he’s eligible to return from the DL. We also know that Matt Capps hasn’t been that impressive this year (4.21 xFIP) and has actually been far worse than the new co-closers in Minnesota, Glen Perkins (2.98 xFIP) and Jared Burton (3.26 xFIP). Glen Perkins is the better pitcher and has more closing experience both this year and at the end of last year, but it’s been Jared Burton who has received and converted the last two save opportunities, including tonight’s game against the White Sox. Perkins may be the better pitcher but the lefty closer is a rare breed as managers often side with the right-handed part of a closing platoon like we have seen Mike Scioscia do with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs.

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Here is a look at some data for Jurrjens and Oswalt, who both returned to the majors last Friday night.

(Ownership rates are ESPN and then Yahoo!)

Jair Jurrjens (11%, 21%) – Jurrjens started the season in the Braves rotation, but was sent down to the minors after 4 starts and a 9.37 ERA. While in AAA, he made 10 starts and struggled with 5.18 ERA, 4.7 K/9 and a 1.43 WHIP. Due to injuries with other Braves starting pitchers, he was forced back into their rotation. On Friday night, he had a good outing with 4 K, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 3 H and only 1 Run.

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