Bullpen Report: June 25, 2012
• As Colin mentioned in the Bullpen Report last night, the “late scuttlebutt” is true and Matt Capps has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation. It is unknown how long Matt Capps will be out, but what we do know is that shoulder injuries can get pretty tricky, so we can’t assume Capps will be back in action as soon as he’s eligible to return from the DL. We also know that Matt Capps hasn’t been that impressive this year (4.21 xFIP) and has actually been far worse than the new co-closers in Minnesota, Glen Perkins (2.98 xFIP) and Jared Burton (3.26 xFIP). Glen Perkins is the better pitcher and has more closing experience both this year and at the end of last year, but it’s been Jared Burton who has received and converted the last two save opportunities, including tonight’s game against the White Sox. Perkins may be the better pitcher but the lefty closer is a rare breed as managers often side with the right-handed part of a closing platoon like we have seen Mike Scioscia do with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs.
One last point regarding Matt Capps — he has a team option for $6 million next year meaning Capps isn’t a guy the Twins are invested in long term. So, if Capps has an extended DL stint and either Burton or Perkins does well in his place, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner of the closing gig to hold on to it for the entire season, even when Capps returns.
• Before tonight’s game, Marlins closer Heath Bell had pitched in 10 consecutive games without allowing a run. Naturally, Bell then decided to give up four runs against the Cardinals tonight, blowing his first save since May 4th. Bell had a disastrous April leading to a 7.98 xFIP, but improved in May (4.27 xFIP) and even more so in June (1.28 xFIP). The problem for Bell was his lack of control and an inability to miss bats but after striking out only 12.5% of the batters he faced in April, Bell was mowing them down in June, striking out 41% of the batters he faced with a 10.00 K/BB. If this outing happened a couple of months ago in the midst of Bell’s awful start I would be screaming for everyone to grab Steve Cishek and/or Edward Mujica, but Bell has gotten himself back on track this year and this bad outing should be seen as just that — a bad outing, not a budding closer controversy.
• The Padres and the Rockies won’t be competing for the NL West title this year but they each have closers that could be dealt this summer and both Huston Street and Rafael Betancourt looked good tonight nailing down saves for their respective teams. Trade rumors should be monitored as we start getting closer to the deadline and we’ll be sure to report what we find here because Street or Betancourt could become set-up men on a different team and if they are traded, you’re going to want to know who will be replacing them.
For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.
A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Jonathan Papelbon (PHI) vs. PIT
The Phillies are having a disappointing year thus far but the Pirates offense is one of the worst in the league (30th in the league in wOBA) and this game figures to be a close one with Vance Worley facing off against Erik Bedard. Although Papelbon has done poorly in his last two appearances, he’s still one of the best in the business, he’s well rested and he should have an opportunity to nail down a save against the Pirates.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
technically it wasn’t a blown save for bell
What (if any) advice would you have for those of use who scooped up Perkins when Capps first went down? Dump Perkins for Burton or hold him and see how the closer situation shakes out?
Although Burton has received the last two chances, I say Perkins is the better pitcher and has the larger contract so I would hold on to him. Also, in the 8th inning tonight, Perkins faced the top of the lineup with De Aza and Dunn both lefties due to bat indicating the Twins still trust him most at the end of the game.
The situation is obviously fluid and you should still keep an eye on how it plays out like you said, but for now I wouldn’t drop Perkins.
I own Perkins and Benoit; should I drop Benoit for Burton? How’s Papa Grande been looking since that little injury?
Valverde has said he’s ready but I would wait to see how he does before dropping Benoit. But, this is probably dependent on the context of your team and league. .if it’s important for you to maintain your level of saves then I would say getting Burton might be the best since you’re assured more saves. If you could use a lottery ticket then I would keep Benoit since it gives you the potential to have 2 closers.
This came in after I published the post, but just wanted to briefly mention Ryan Cook having a nice bounce-back game tonight pitching a scoreless ninth inning, striking out two batters (with one walk) against the Mariners.
I just put in a claim for league for Burton. I think you roll the dice on the righty. A lot of times in these situations managers stick with a guy when he converts a few in a row. Maybe the Twins do just that. Agree that Perkins is better but the better pitcher often doesn’t pitch the 9th.
“A lot of times in these situations managers stick with a guy when he converts a few in a row.”
Then why did Gardy switch from Perk to Burton after HE converted two saves?
Not that it really matters since Jim Johnson has been so good, but it’s pretty funny that you still have Lindstrom listed as second in line even though he’s been on the DL since May 11th. Even though he’s coming back soon, you gotta figure both Ayala and O’Day are ahead of him.
Who can be dealt this summer: Not only Betancourt and Street but Meyers as well. I’m going Rex Brothers and Brandon Lyon (assuming he doesn’t get traded and Lopez is still on the DL) as the likely respective replacements. But I’m not sure of Street. Maybe Gregerson, or Boxberger if he pitches better.
Who do you think is the best speculative pickup?
Matt Belisle might have some say in Colorado if Betancourt is traded so I think I would prefer a guy like Gregerson who has a clearer path to saves if the current closer is traded.
Jon Broxton and JJ Putz are other closers who might be traded and each team has an obvious replacement in Holland and Hernandez. I like both of them a lot and would recommend rostering them if you have space or a need since they get a ton of Ks and have decent saves potential in the 2nd half.