On Saturday, I looked at the pitcher leaders in F-Strike% in an attempt to identify those who may see better walk rates ahead. Today I will look at the opposite side of the coin. These are the pitchers who throwing the lowest percentage of first pitch strikes. A pitcher showing up on this list with a league average walk rate or better is likely going to experience an increase in the near future.
Happy Birthday, Grandma. Now, I know you said no presents, but I’m giving you a Roto Riteup anyway.
• Roy Oswalt made his 2012 debut in Triple-A this weekend, throwing two innings and tossing 34 pitches. Oswalt was reportedly sitting at 91-92 mph, but then again, he only threw two frames. Don’t expect to see Oswalt in the big leagues for about three weeks, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be stashing him away in AL-only leagues if he’s available.
The latest updates on bullpens around the league since our last Bullpen Report:
• As Colin mentioned the other day, Aroldis Chapman is pretty good at his job right now and he continued to pitch well on Saturday striking out three batters (while walking one) en route to his fifth save of the year. Aroldis Chapman has yet to give up a run this season and it’s certainly not all smoke and mirrors as he has underlying numbers that are as eye popping as his perfect ERA: 16.07 k/9, 5.56 k/bb, and a 1.38 xFIP. Chapman also has 1.7 WAR so far this season, a number that would have made him one of the top-10 most valuable relief pitchers all of last year, and it’s only the beginning of June which should tell you the kind of season he is having right now. Colin said it first but it’s worth repeating, Aroldis Chapman is the best relief pitcher in baseball right now and so long as he’s getting saves for Cincinnati he’s likely the best closer as well. The one knock on Aroldis was that he may not be able to pitch many back-to-back games or three games in a row, but before today’s game Reds manager Dusty Baker said that Aroldis would be available to pitch after having pitched in the previous two games. This news should only increase Chapman’s value but be sure to monitor his workload because as we all know – pitchers are pretty fragile creatures.
According to the people who have too much time on their hands, June 3rd has been named national Repeat Day. Have no fear, I won’t repeat yesterday’s Roto Riteup.
• The experiment with Ichiro Suzuki batting third didn’t apparently didn’t impress Seattle Mariners manager Eric Wedge, so he moved Ichiro back to his customary lead off role for just the second time this year on Saturday. Ichiro immediately hit a home run in his first plate appearance. He also tacked on another solo shot in the third inning. I’ve touched on how Ichiro just isn’t the same elite player anymore, but he is still an above average player. Don’t expect this kind of power out of him regularly, but it is nice to see him contribute to the fantasy squad more than just steals for the first time in over a year. Read the rest of this entry »
As intuition would suggest, F-Strike% has a high correlation with a pitcher’s walk rate (though I can’t seem to find the article that studied the relationship). One of the obvious reasons is because a first pitch strike is a strike, so you already know the pitcher is starting with an 0-1 count. Whenever I analyze a pitcher, I like to compare his F-Strike% with his BB/9 or BB% to see if those last two numbers are sustainable. Today I look at the leaders in F-Strike%. These are the guys who should also be atop the leader boards in walk rate. This is where we search for those who may see an improved walk rate in the future.
As stated last week, RotoGraphs will now be bringing you the best most comprehensive fantasy news and advice on the weekend too. So sit back, watch some cartoons in that bathrobe that you wear once a month and catch up on some of fantasy baseball relevant news from yesterday in today’s edition of the Roto Riteup.
• The St. Louis Cardinals activated Allen Craig from the 15-day disabled list yesterday. His season triple slash is an impressive .345/.397/.456. No doubt that that line is inflated by his .359 BABIP, but Craig is no stranger to offensive success. Success at the major league level should not come as a surprise, as Craig has long been a pitcher’s nightmare, posting a .320/.379/.548 line in over 900 Triple-A plate appearances. In Yahoo! leagues Craig is already eligible at 1B, 2B and OF, making him a versatile bat to plug in almost anywhere in your lineup. Craig is owned in 62% of Yahoo! leagues and 70% of ESPN leagues. For anyone in a 12×12 mixed league, go pick him up.
• Fellow Bullpen Report contributor Benjamin Pasinkoff shot out an e-mail the other day mentioning that the Mariners quietly called up Stephen Pryor this week. While not considered a blue-chip prospect in scouting circles, Pryor has never whiffed less than 10.7 K/9 at any stop during his minor league career. While his walk rate (4.6 BB/9 career, 5.2 in his brief stop at AAA this year) leaves much to be desired, Pryor’s 6’4″ frame and mid-90s heat are certainly worth noting in any bullpen with a shaky pecking order. While he is expected to work in middle relief for the foreseeable future, his is a name owners should keep in mind in case he eventually impresses his way to the late innings. Dynasty and deep keeper owners with roster flexibility might even consider a speculative add in the hope of striking “closer gold” down the line.
With a limited slate of action Monday, it’s a pretty lean week for two-start hurlers. This week, we examine a trio of left-handed hurlers, and take a brief look at a righty whose struggled outside of throwing a perfect game. Just a reminder: Team wOBA versus the handedness of that particular starter is what’s listed. Read the rest of this entry »
The Colorado Rockies’ record stands at 21-29. They are 11 games back of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ve just put their star Troy Tulowitzki on the disabled list and recently designated for assignment the warm-the-cockles-of-your-heart story, Jamie Moyer. The latter move is ostensibly to to keep space available for Christian Friedrich or Drew Pomeranz when Jorge de la Rosa ultimately returns.
The Rockies would need to go 69-43 for the remainder of the season, a .620 winning percentage, in order to get to 90 wins. 65-47 for 86 wins, if you think that would do the trick for the second wild card, which would mean a .580 win percentage from here on out. Neither are particularly likely.
So the move towards youth might be on (or on the close horizon) and the next logical place to look for the Rockies has to be third base.