The season is barely more than a week old, but let’s quickly take stock of two first baseman headed in opposite directions…

Stock Up: Carlos Pena | Rays | Owned: 74! Yahoo! and 100.0% ESPN

Moving back to Tropicana Field after a one-year stint in Wrigley Field figures to take a bite out of Pena’s numbers over the long haul, but the first week back in the old digs has been a productive one (.536 wOBA in 22 PA). What I like most about Pena’s situation is his new batting order spot, second behind Desmond Jennings and ahead of Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, and Ben Zobrist. It’s a prime RBI and runs scored spot, where his power and patience will play well. We know Pena won’t hit for average and his platoon split is an issue as well, but if he can’t get back over 100 RBI this season, he might never do it again.

Stock Down: Mike Morse | Nationals | Owned: 94% Yahoo! and 99.4% ESPN

A lat strain kept Morse on the shelf while the rest of the team broke camp, and the diagnosis has only gotten worse. Morse is now in “total shutdown mode” according to GM Mike Rizzo, and he won’t do anything for six weeks. If all goes well, maybe he’s back in the lineup in eight weeks, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Like oblique strains, lat issues can linger if not properly healed. Adam LaRoche’s job is safe for the foreseeable future, and Morse remains will remain a question mark until June.

Six games into the 2012 season, Kyle Seager has a .333/.360/.417 line and is owned in approximately 40% of ottoneu leagues. And that rate is dropping.

Seager is playing every day right now, but with Mike Carp on the verge of a rehab assignment and Franklin Gutierrez on his way back, the Mariners outfield is about to get awfully crowded, which will push the resurgent Chone Figgins back to third, and Seager to…probably the bench. On top of that, his bat probably isn’t good enough to play everyday at 3B. But I am not ready to sell.

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When you write a fantasy baseball column that recommends players, your number one priority is accuracy.  You can make all the suggestions you want, but if you’re making bad calls, no one is going to listen to your advice.  And even if you do happen to get one right eventually, there’s always someone out there to tell you that even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut.  You need to know what you’re talking about.

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It’s time for our first American League starting pitcher update! Let the small sample size analysis begin. I was bored at work today and decided to compare fastball velocity with last year already. Not surprisingly, there were a ton more pitchers with down velocity than up. I think this simply reminds us that pitchers are still building up arm strength and it should not automatically trigger alarm bells if your ace is not throwing as hard as last year. Of course, it’s something to monitor since it should gradually creep up through the rest of the month.

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Today’s Roto Riteup features an inordinate amount of hispanic names.

• Scott Baker is done for the 2012 season after being forced (at gunpoint) to have surgery on his throwing elbow. Baker has never been the most durable starter in the world, but he has been somewhat of an undervalued fantasy asset for the past couple of years. It looks like Liam Hendricks will be getting a chance to stick in the big leagues as a starter, but don’t run out and snag him off the waiver wire. Hendricks’ minor league numbers were pretty good below Triple-A, and the right-hander posted a FIP and SIERA around 4.00 in four starts last season.

• Buster Posey has shingles. In other news, Buster Posey is cursed and will never be allowed to be happy. Posey should be back in a day or two, so don’t be overly concerned about this specific injury. You should be worried about hunting down and killing the witch who cursed him, though.

• It’s early, but Edinson Volquez is doing exactly what fantasy owners should have been hoping for. Volquez is the major league strikeout leader through Tuesday’s action, but his BB/9 is above 5.00 for the fourth season in a row. Volquez isn’t going to be able to keep up a K/9 above 11.0, but he could have one between nine and ten. If he can keep the walks under control, especially on the road, Volquez could once again post an ERA under 4.00.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here are a couple matchups you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Today: None
You could make an argument for Jeff Karstens again the Dodgers or Chris Capuano, who is facing off against him, but I don’t want to put my eggs in their basket.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Luke Hochevar (KC) vs CLE
Hochevar is going to be very good this year. Just you watch.

A Hitter for Today: Adam LaRoche (WAS) vs CIN (Bronson Arroyo)
Arroyo likes to give up big time dingers.

A few closers seem to be on shaky ground with their starts to the season, most notability Chris Perez and Sergio Santos. Both have started out horribly, but how horrible do they need to be to lose their jobs? Today, I am going to look at how bad a pitcher needs to suck to lose their closer role.

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Edinson Volquez

Part of me is still uncertain about whether Volquez is the type of pitcher who will see a big change pitching in PETCO, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned in my years playing and writing fantasy, it’s that Padre pitchers are usually worth giving the benefit of the doubt. Volquez pitched well in his first two starts this season, both at home, notably striking out 15 hitters between the two starts, but perhaps more importantly, he generated a fair amount of groundballs in both starts.

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Sergio Santos is a reliever I have been touting all winter, and a few bad performances are not going to change that. There are, however, some concerns after his first three outings as a Blue Jay.

His command has been non-existent in the two save attempts and one other appearance he has had this year — walking four batters and striking out just one. His fastball velocity is also down a mile per hour, which is worth noting but likely will not be an issue going forward.

Thankfully, Santos will get a bit of a breather and will be out until Saturday as his child is being born. A bit of time off might help him clear his head and hopefully he will come back strong.

His lack of a choke hold spot on the closer role is at least somewhat disconcerting. If Santos were closing games Blue Jays for the past three years, the poor performance over this small stretch might not be as worrisome. The Blue Jays possess a number of relievers who could reasonably fill the role of closer, so it is not as if Santos has no competition. Francisco Cordero is not necessarily a quality pitcher, but he has closer experience which managers are often attracted to. Jason Frasor has 36 career saves with the Blue Jays, and Casey Janssen is a sturdy reliever. Santos is easily the best option of the bunch if he is on, but these pitchers could all feasibly take over the role if Santos fails.

Instead, this is John Farrell’s first look at him on a regular basis and a slew of bad outings could force Farrell’s hand. Last year, Frank Francisco was removed from the closer role at times due to poor performances. This is just Santos’s fourth year as a pitcher, so it would be understandable for the Blue Jays to closely monitor the situation. If he blows a few more saves upon his return to the team, how could anyone blame the Jays for at least temporarily removing him from the position?

I still have faith in Santos, though. His walk rate will likely never be too impressive, which will lead to the occasional blown save, but his strikeouts should help counter that balance. I will be monitoring his velocity to see if the slight drop continues, and paying close attention to his command is also recommended. Do not lose faith in him just yet, but pay close attention to see if his poor performance is an aberration or a continuing trend.

Lots of roster tweaking going on right now as fantasy owners everywhere are trying to put together the perfect squad.  But while most of your league has scooped up the top post-draft talent remaining, there are obviously a few strays lying around that could serve as quality bench guys for you to plug in when needed.  With the middle infield positions sitting so thin, you might want to start there. Read the rest of this entry »

In his Minor League career, Danny Duffy had a 10.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, and generally blew the doors off the hinges when he was in the game. A short stint away from the game dinged him in some scouting reports, but when he returned, it was all systems go for the young lefty with mid-90s gas and multiple secondary pitches with bite and break.

Then Duffy spent 2011 putting up 105.1 innings of 7.43 K/9, 4.38 BB/9, 1.28 HR/9, and generally blew goats when he was in the game. Even a short offseason away from the game couldn’t undo that ding, and he came into the season mostly un-noticed in fantasy circles. He went into Tuesday night’s game against the Athletics owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues.

Should his six innings of eight-strikeout, four-walk, one-hit ball in a pitcher-friendly park against a pitcher-friendly lineup erase the memory of a half-season like Duffy had in 2011? Probably not. But unpacking why Duffy did well might help us decide if he is capable of doing so more often this season.

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