Time To Worry About Sergio Santos?
Sergio Santos is a reliever I have been touting all winter, and a few bad performances are not going to change that. There are, however, some concerns after his first three outings as a Blue Jay.
His command has been non-existent in the two save attempts and one other appearance he has had this year — walking four batters and striking out just one. His fastball velocity is also down a mile per hour, which is worth noting but likely will not be an issue going forward.
Thankfully, Santos will get a bit of a breather and will be out until Saturday as his child is being born. A bit of time off might help him clear his head and hopefully he will come back strong.
His lack of a choke hold spot on the closer role is at least somewhat disconcerting. If Santos were closing games Blue Jays for the past three years, the poor performance over this small stretch might not be as worrisome. The Blue Jays possess a number of relievers who could reasonably fill the role of closer, so it is not as if Santos has no competition. Francisco Cordero is not necessarily a quality pitcher, but he has closer experience which managers are often attracted to. Jason Frasor has 36 career saves with the Blue Jays, and Casey Janssen is a sturdy reliever. Santos is easily the best option of the bunch if he is on, but these pitchers could all feasibly take over the role if Santos fails.
Instead, this is John Farrell’s first look at him on a regular basis and a slew of bad outings could force Farrell’s hand. Last year, Frank Francisco was removed from the closer role at times due to poor performances. This is just Santos’s fourth year as a pitcher, so it would be understandable for the Blue Jays to closely monitor the situation. If he blows a few more saves upon his return to the team, how could anyone blame the Jays for at least temporarily removing him from the position?
I still have faith in Santos, though. His walk rate will likely never be too impressive, which will lead to the occasional blown save, but his strikeouts should help counter that balance. I will be monitoring his velocity to see if the slight drop continues, and paying close attention to his command is also recommended. Do not lose faith in him just yet, but pay close attention to see if his poor performance is an aberration or a continuing trend.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
The one thing that you didn’t mention which is relevant here is that the Blue Jays traded for Santos over the winter, and that they presumably see him as their long term closer – the Jays have him under control for the next six seasons if they want. I think it’s pretty unlikely that they give up on that because of a couple of poor outings early on. Even if they are forced into a change, I’d guess it may be a short term thing until Santos gets back on the rails.
I agree with your close, but the Jays signed Cordero for a reason. They wanted a proven closer in the mix in case Santos has some issues. Sure, Santos is their long term guy, but the article is about the current situation, not a dynasty league.
And to Ben, Cordero was actually pretty good last year, so saying he is ‘not necessarily a quality pitcher’ seems like a reach.
Did you mean velocity here?
“His fastball command is also down a mile per hour, which is worth noting but likely will not be an issue going forward.”
I agree with Simon; I think this is a bit early to be concerned, though I’d agree that from a fantasy perspective one must concern oneself with these situations earlier than in real life.
“Thankfully, Santos will get a bit of a breather and will be out until Saturday as his child is being born. A bit of time off might help him clear his head and hopefully he will come back strong.”
I’m disappointed to find this type of narrative writing on fangraphs. Any reason to believe he would be better off with a couple days away than he would be going right back out there?
You obviously don’t have children.
“Might” plug
Its at least plausible that a guy could be nervous around the birth of his child and might come back from the birth in a better state of mind for a high pressure situation assuming all goes well.
It is plausible, but I don’t think that it’s any more plausible than simply needing reps to work things out.
Thankfully, Santos was not out until Saturday, and had a strikeout and a groundout against Youkilis and Ortiz to convert a save today.
I love this site, but this comment is correct.
Suggesting that we can predict how anxiety effects a given player at given times should raise the antennae for anyone looking for objective analysis. I’d wager that most people reading my comment couldn’t tell me something as basic like whether Santos’ primary language is english or spanish, but we’re ready to comment on his mental health status? No thanks…there’s just no need for that and the exercise itself seems antithetical to what a site like fangraphs tries to acheive.
Dude, statistical analysis cannot have any value in a vaccum like you’re suggesting. It is absolutely okay to infer that the impending birth of a child is having psychological affects on someone and thus, potentially impacting performance on the field. First language has nothing to do with it. Whether you speak Spanish, English or Japanese, children impact your life and therefore your work.
@ Chill I suggest that his positive performance in yesterday’s game resulted from the impending birth of his child because he was so excited he realized that baseball was trivial.
Prove me wrong.
@jcxy I don’t understand how language plays into it unless you’re saying something about different gender roles in different cultures.
The Blue Jays’ broadcasters had GM Alex Anthopolous in the booth last night and they discussed Sergio’s struggles for a bit. AA said, and I’m paraphrasing, “I’ll go to war with guys that have [Santos’] stuff any day.”
So if it were solely up to the GM, I think Santos is looking at a decent-sized leash here. The organization know he has the talent to be successful and they want to be patient with him.
This is good intel, thank you.
I’m disappointed to find this type of narrative writing on fangraphs comment boards. (jk)
Then this is a man I would likely want to go to war against because my soldiers with their weapons would would wipe out his pitchers with their stuff.
The time to worry about him was last season. He sucks.
You worried about him through a lights-out seaason? You must have a very carefree life..
Not to mention Ozzie being Ozzie’s retarded platoon despite the fact Santos had serviceable numbers vs. LHB and lights out numbers vs. RHB.
Seems I misunderstood what the report was — he is out from Thursday to Saturday due to the birth of his child but is pitching as I type this. My apologies. Looking good also.
he snuck into the game today, whiffing Youk, and getting Pappi to ground to SS with runners on 2nd and 3rd
Seems like everybody whiffs Youk now, but still impressive bounce back.
guess that ends that debate
yep