Today’s Roto Riteup features a guy with bad knees, someone who can’t hit, and a man who’s older than the earth himself. Sadly, all three of people are different and not one pathetic man.

–  Chase Utley is not going to be ready for opening day, as his knee problems keep on keepin’ on. I had suspicions that Utley was going to have issues both staying healthy and producing this year, ranking him 20th among second baseman while my compatriots place him an average of 9th. Utley is going to have these problems the rest of his career, so it’s not like you should be expecting a bounceback in keeper leagues.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last few days, Howard Bender, Chad Young, and Ben Duronio have been writing about three players they will each avoid this season (parts one, two, three, and four), and now I’m going to join in on the fun.

Read the rest of this entry »

When, in the course of formulating the starting pitcher consensus ranks for the 2012 fantasy baseball season, it becomes necessary to rank a relief pitcher as as starting pitcher before he makes start number one in the new season, a decent respect to the opinions of RotoGraphs readership requires that a little more attention be paid to the causes that led to the exclusion of said starter-slash-relief pitchers from the rankings — and how they’d be ranked otherwise.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all pitchers are mostly divided into two groups; that they are thus endowed by the game with different kinds of value and to be judged separately; that inherent to each value is the pursuit of saves or wins but not usually both; that it is much more difficult to gain starting pitcher eligibility and actually start than it is to be a starter-eligible reliever; that the penalties associated from moving from the bullpen to the rotation (17% degradation in strikeout walk and home run rate, as well as a .7-2 mph drop in fastball velocity, on average) often make newly-minted relievers-turned-starters a shaky proposition; that therefore most years it makes most sense to rank reliever-eligible pitchers with the relievers.

But whenever any form or ranking encounters a destructive force — as it has this year in the form of Men like Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz, and Chris Sale — it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish the old ways and to institute a new form of rankings.

Read the rest of this entry »

Andy Pettitte

Andy Pettitte will be joining the Yankees tomorrow to see if he can be a useful starter. Don’t get caught up in the recent hype. The 39-year-old will have a lower than expected fantasy value for a few reasons.

First, a production level needs to guesstimated. To get an idea of his possible production level, here are his K/9 and BB/9 levels over the last three years he pitched:

Year, K/9, BB/9
2008, 7.0, 2.4
2009, 6.8, 3.5
2010, 7.1, 2.9

We should expect a K/9 value near 7.0 and BB/9 near 3.0. For reference, here are 3 pitchers from 2011 with similar K/9 and BB/9 rates:

Read the rest of this entry »

Piggybacking off of Howard Bender’s post from earlier last week, I am going to follow up with three more players that I wouldn’t draft this year either. Sometimes guys fall to you and you have almost no choice but to take them, but these are three guys I won’t be following closely on draft day.

Adam Lind: While I like his opportunity to rack up the RBIs in the middle of what should be a potent Toronto lineup, most of Lind’s game is lackluster and worrisome. Yes, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past three years, but his dwindling average and poor on base skills lead to plenty of easy outs on Lind’s end. In leagues that account for average he is bad and if they account for OBP he is worse. With only one season with a wRC+ over 100, Lind is a below average hitter compared to the league and is far below average compared to first basemen. His best traits, his homers and his RBI total, are not even tremendously impressive.
Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday afternoon, Royals closer Joakim Soria left the game with a sore right elbow. But this doesn’t sound like any sore elbow as a result of just shaking off some spring training rust and he’ll be fine in a couple of days. This appears more ominous. His performance this spring certainly backs up the fact that he has been pitching injured, as he has now allowed 7 runs and 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings. Of course, it’s a tiny sample size and typically should be ignored. But when elbow soreness is involved, we have to take that performance more seriously.

Read the rest of this entry »

Your Monday edition of FanGraphs’ Roto Riteup is just around the corner. Hey, there it is now!

–  Bryce Harper has been sent to minor league camp, which means he will not start the season with the big league club. Harper looks to be a great major league player, but he just wasn’t quite ready yet. I’d like to see if he can drop his strikeout rate in the minors while maintaining his power stroke before calling the greatest prospect who ever lived, but he’s about as talented as they come, and far advanced for his age. Nationals’ manager Davey Johnson has stated that Harper will get work at CF while in the minors, potentially making him insanely valuable in leagues that differentiate outfield spots.

Read the rest of this entry »

Our contribution to FantasyPros’ consensus rankings was filed today, and while my own tiers are still forthcoming, now is as good a time as any to take a look at my colleagues’ rankings. Having pitching as deep as it is this year is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, it affords players the luxury of waiting until the middle or late rounds to build their staffs and means that an error in the first couple rounds — losing someone like Clayton Kershaw to injury for example, not that I think Kershaw is terribly risky — isn’t likely to be a fatal blow.

On the other hand, it makes doing these rankings virtually impossible. Who is the fifth best pitcher in the NL? Matt Cain? Zack Greinke? Cole Hamels? Solid candidates all, but picking The One is a tough ask. Generally speaking, I’m in line right with Eno, Jeff, Mike, and Zach, but here are a few things I wanted to highlight ahead of my own contribution. Read the rest of this entry »

Tiers seem to unearth the mighty wrath of fantasy baseball enthusiasts, but since we’ve already seen the third base consensus rankings and my general reactions to them thereafter, it’s time to categorize the gentlemen at the five into tidy little compartments of descending desirability.

As you well know, the tiers are not hard and fast — they change (sometimes dramatically) over the course of the first few months of the season. In fact, there’s been movement in these tiers even before I had a chance to publish them! It’s important to remember that these are not keeper tiers — they simply attempt to arrange rough approximations of value in standard 5×5 leagues as you prepare for what might be your final draft(s).

Read the rest of this entry »

Consensus Ranks: OF, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, and RP and SP.

Tiered Ranks: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, NL OF, AL SP, NL SP, Holds.

Matt Moore. Yes, he’s not in here. We’ve been over it. He’s not a starter yet, even though he’ll be a starter later, and so he’s not in there right now. But you know what, we ranked him in our mind pieces, and we got around a 28 all together. So that puts him ahead of Shaun Marcum and Brandon Morrow on the rankings, and given some uncertainty about his innings (and performance, as much as is the case with any young player) this year, that might be around right. That said, I have no such reservations about his innings, since he managed over 180 last year and could do a full slate this year without bumping up 20%.

The rest of the list? Maybe you like Felix Hernandez more, or Zack Greinke. Or Dan Hudson gets your panties in or out of a bundle. Brandon McCarthy spoke today at the SABR analytics conference and some of you were giving him the stank eye, maybe. I loved Derek Holland last year, but now I’m the one that hates him. I hate Johan Santana more than most non-Mets fans, and I like Tim Stauffer more than most Padres fans perhaps. But maybe no-one caused more consternation than Josh Collmenter — do you believe in deception or not?

And, before you get too upset about the rankings at the bottom, know this: by the time you get down there, it’s all approximation. Treat that as a list of pitchers we like in deep leagues. It’s better than assuming that we really think that Jerome Williams is demonstrably better that Jorge De La Rosa.

Read the rest of this entry »