Grant Balfour, the man with the awful baseball name and two consecutive sub 2.50 ERAs has been named the new closer in Oakland. Balfour has had stellar performances in three of the past four years and is finally being rewarded with a ninth inning gig. Oakland made the wise call here baseball wise, as Balfour is the better pitcher than Brian Fuentes and now Fuentes can become more of a situational pitcher, which will in turn make him a more valuable member of their bullpen.

Balfour did run into some good fortune last season, stranding 89% of his runners and recording a BABIP of .232, but he also had the highest HR/FB rate of his career, minimum 30 innings pitched, at 11.0%. Balfour is no guarantee for another sub 2.50 ERA, but I could certainly envision him around the 2.80-3.00 mark that he has averaged over the past four seasons.

As a strict two pitch pitcher who generates above average whiff rates with both pitches, Balfour certainly has the stuff to finish with more than a strikeout per inning pitched. Also helping in Balfour’s resurgence over the past few seasons is his walk rate, which has sat at 7.7% and 8.3% over the past two years compared to his career average of 10.9%. His lower walk rate has come with fewer strikeouts but an improved K/BB ratio, which have been his second and third highest of his career over the past two seasons.

Projection systems have his ERA in a wide range, with Bill James expecting a 2.40 and ZiPS expecting a 3.60 mark. I am a bit more bullish on Balfour than ZiPS is, but take that for what it is worth. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, last season Balfour finished with 32 and 6 respectively. That was good for a rate of 5.33 shutdowns per meltdown, which ranked him tenth among qualifying relievers. His consistent performances should allow him to hold down the closer spot for the entirety of the season, barring any odd setbacks or injuries.

So, with Balfour now officially being named closer, where does he rank among the herd? In the consensus reliever rankings, our team had Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Joe Nathan, and Kyle Farnsworth ranked 16-19 when excluding projected starting pitchers. I would slot Balfour right in between League and Nathan, as League’s performance last year and lower FIP over the past two seasons gives him the slight edge over Balfour in my eyes.
Despite the middle tier ranking, Balfour is a solid closer to add to a roto roster.

If you were wise enough to speculate on Balfour eventually winning the job, then you likely got him at a very nice discount on draft day. If you are drafting in the near future, target Balfour as he is likely still a bit undervalued due to his inexperience as a closer. I do not place much value in a pitcher having closer experience, but in many cases your league mates will. Take advantage of the players in your league by looking at Balfour’s solid numbers over the past few seasons and expect quite a good year in his first attempt as a full time closer.

I was involved in a 15-team keeper league auction the other day and after staring at Adam Dunn in my queue for what seemed like and eternity, I finally made a move on him.  It wasn’t until very late in the draft and I had held back some extra cash but when I ended up shelling out $14 for him, I questioned whether or not I overpaid.  Did I not think that Dunn was worth that kind of money so late in an auction or was it simply just a temporary case of buyer’s remorse after strapping myself for cash with another few roster spots left to fill?  Then I remembered my rationale after taking him in the 13th round of the KFFL Baseball Analysis Draft & Experts League and Mike Axisa’s 10 Bold Predictions and mental order was restored.  Dunn is headed for a big rebound this year and if you can get him on the cheap (and yes, $14 for 40 HR certainly qualifies as cheap), then you make that move.

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We’ve got your consensus outfielder ranks, but it helps to put guys in tiers, especially for your NL-only players out there. So, just to make sure we have you covered, here are your National League Outfielder tiers.

All is well here. Shortstops get one guy in the top tier and outfielders in the National League alone get four. How do you like your 30/30 outfielder served?
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You’ve read the consensus rankings, complained about them and have been no doubt counting down the minutes until the tiered rankings are released. Well, it’s your lucky day, as your final 2012 rankings sit below. Yes, my crystal ball is that good, it already knows how the season will play out.

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Today’s Roto Riteup talks primarily about closers. Closers, closers, closers.

–  Grant Balfour has been named the A’s closer, beating out Brian Fuentes. Balfour’s home run rate last season was certainly worrisome, but another season with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.15 is extremely attainable. Balfour is in the last guaranteed year of his contract, so a mid-season trade isn’t out of the question, even though the A’s hold a club option for 2013.

–  With Joakim Soria having big-time elbow problems, Greg Holland should be on everyone’s draft board. While Jonathan Broxton is the experienced closer, Holland is a more effective pitcher and less likely to break down in the process. Projecting where Holland should be drafted is tough, but if he is the full-time closer, there’s a chance he could actually end up in the top-ten at his position thanks to his massive strikeout rate. Mike Podhorzer has more on the subject.

–  Dr. James Andrews alert! Orioles’ starter Zach Britton is going to see the noted baseball mortician after inflammation returned to his throwing shoulder as of late. Britton was the subject of fantasy debate last year over whether or not he was a relevant roto option, but this should help squash any remaining ideas that he should be owned in anything but dynasty leagues. If your keeper deadline already passed, you should be kicking yourself in the face for being so silly.

A Pitcher For Today/Tomorrow
During the season, you’ll be finding recommendations for starters you could stream for the day after the notes, but this being spring training, I’m going to assume you aren’t playing some strange high-stakes spring fantasy game.

If you have anything in particular you’d like to see in this year’s Roto Riteup, please say so in the comments. Feedback is appreciated.

Managing the disabled list isn’t often the difference between winning and losing a league, but if it’s done poorly, it can leave owners hurting for bench space and restrict the ability to grab sleepers or move out a slumping player. This time of year, if used well, the DL can be used almost as an extra draft slot. Grabbing an already injured player, then using that vacated spot to pull a top option off the wire gives owners a way to fill a weakness that emerged during the draft.

There is a huge caveat here: I don’t recommend this plan for those who only have one DL spot. At all. The unpredictability of injuries — I see you Miguel Cabrera — means that giving over the only injury refuge on the roster to someone like a Brett Anderson or Dallas Braden produces the wicked choice of dropping the newly injured player, dropping the long-term injury despite the sunk cost already incurred, or playing with a shortened bench. Survivable? Sure, but far less than ideal. Read the rest of this entry »

Yestrday, Skip Schumaker suffered a torn right oblique muscle that will keep him out of action for the foreseeable future. An oblique injury caused Evan Longoria to miss a month last season, so we know these injuries are nothing to take lightly. The news won’t affect a large swath of the fantasy population as Shumaker and his 2010-2011 OPS of .676 are usually found in the free agent scrap heap. However, the Cardinals can’t go without a second baseman, so we’re presented with our latest, and perhaps least interesting, spring training position battle.

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Delmon Young has a had an up and down career with more downs than ups, but I think he can provide more value to a roto team this year than most initially assume. He is coming off a year in which he played in 124 games and netted just an 88 wRC+, but I still believe he can produce in a potent Tiger lineup.

Delmon is just one year removed from a .298/.333/.493 line in which he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 RBI. That was a stellar fantasy year, as he produced well in many standard categories. While he will always have a very poor walk rate, his bat control is decent and he should not kill your team’s average. In fact, there’s a good chance he improves it, as his career .288 average is rather respectable.

His season last year was poor, but he is in a better situation in Detroit. In his 40 games in Detroit last season, he hit 8 home runs and batted .274. This was a small sample, but it shows that his power really came on late in the season. According to StatCorner, Detroit’s home ballpark has a 108 home run factor for right-handed hitters compared to 95 for Minnesota’s. Comerica Park is pitcher friendly, but right-handers are able to push the ball out of the stadium at an above average rate, which should help Young’s home run total.

Also greatly helping Young this year will be his placement in the lineup. Batting directly behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder should give Young a great opportunity to hit with men on base and drive in runs. For reference, the league average line with men on base last year was .261/.332/.403 compared to .255/.321/.399. There is not a huge uptick in numbers with men on base, but there is a good opportunity for Young to be in that position more frequently than most hitters since two hitters who are expected to produce OBPs near or above .400 hit in front of him.

ZiPS projects a .283 average, 18 homers, and 86 RBI for Young, which is serviceable for a fantasy lineup. Delmon is one of the rare breeds whose fantasy value likely trumps their actual on field value. Delmon has only appeared in 20 games at DH in his career, so his .316/.345/.494 line as a DH does not guarantee success in that position. The 10% discount in production given to pinch hitters is assumed by designated hitters as well, so there is reason to be cautionary in regards to Young’s move to primary DH. It is worthwhile to keep track of how the Tigers use their DH position though, as Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder may end up with more plate appearances at DH than Young as the season advances.

In short, there are plenty of reasons to dislike Young but there are also reasons to expect him to produce well. He is the type of hitter I take a flier on in the later rounds, as he can produce well in four categories for a cheap price. He may bust, but he is in a good situation, in a stadium that should help his home run total, and is still just 26 years old. Your team won’t be devastated if you pass up on Delmon, but you could be missing out on good fantasy value at a very cheap price.

A week from tomorrow, the season officially begins. It will begin and end while I’m likely still asleep as first pitch is 3:10 a.m. Pacific Standard Time, but it will be fun to awaken to statistics that actually matter.

But with still a week to go, things can go right and wrong in a hurry, and while the news below may not be anything new to you, dedicated sports reader, it affects the third base landscape and thus I present it to you with my brief commentary.

Miguel Cabrera has indeed been playing third base despite the consensus opinion that it may very well make Doug Fister have a hissy fit. On Monday, Cabrera decided to try and field a hot grounder off the bat of Hunter Pence not with his glove, but with his face. The video is worth watching if only to see Max Scherzer get a bona fide case of the heebee-jeebees upon seeing the wound.

The news this morning is he has a small fracture under the eye and he received several stitches and will be re-evaluated in a week. At first blush, I can’t see this derailing the third base experiment heading into the season. But, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here – he does not qualify at third base yet – and strange things can happen in Spring Training. Another liner off the noodle, and perhaps the Tigers decide to protect their slugger and let him DH the majority of the time? If you draft him as your every day third baseman and he doesn’t gain eligibility until June, you’re probably going to grow weary of having to watch Josh Donaldson man third for two months.

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So we’ve been through the Catcher Consensus Rankings and we’ve heard some of my initial thoughts on said rankings.  Well, now it’s time to put these guys into tiers so that you can see which players are most comparable to each other in expected production and where you can likely find them in your draft.  I’ll also chime in with a few thoughts here and there…

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