Why I Like Delmon Young This Year
Delmon Young has a had an up and down career with more downs than ups, but I think he can provide more value to a roto team this year than most initially assume. He is coming off a year in which he played in 124 games and netted just an 88 wRC+, but I still believe he can produce in a potent Tiger lineup.
Delmon is just one year removed from a .298/.333/.493 line in which he hit 21 homers and drove in 112 RBI. That was a stellar fantasy year, as he produced well in many standard categories. While he will always have a very poor walk rate, his bat control is decent and he should not kill your team’s average. In fact, there’s a good chance he improves it, as his career .288 average is rather respectable.
His season last year was poor, but he is in a better situation in Detroit. In his 40 games in Detroit last season, he hit 8 home runs and batted .274. This was a small sample, but it shows that his power really came on late in the season. According to StatCorner, Detroit’s home ballpark has a 108 home run factor for right-handed hitters compared to 95 for Minnesota’s. Comerica Park is pitcher friendly, but right-handers are able to push the ball out of the stadium at an above average rate, which should help Young’s home run total.
Also greatly helping Young this year will be his placement in the lineup. Batting directly behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder should give Young a great opportunity to hit with men on base and drive in runs. For reference, the league average line with men on base last year was .261/.332/.403 compared to .255/.321/.399. There is not a huge uptick in numbers with men on base, but there is a good opportunity for Young to be in that position more frequently than most hitters since two hitters who are expected to produce OBPs near or above .400 hit in front of him.
ZiPS projects a .283 average, 18 homers, and 86 RBI for Young, which is serviceable for a fantasy lineup. Delmon is one of the rare breeds whose fantasy value likely trumps their actual on field value. Delmon has only appeared in 20 games at DH in his career, so his .316/.345/.494 line as a DH does not guarantee success in that position. The 10% discount in production given to pinch hitters is assumed by designated hitters as well, so there is reason to be cautionary in regards to Young’s move to primary DH. It is worthwhile to keep track of how the Tigers use their DH position though, as Miguel Cabrera or Prince Fielder may end up with more plate appearances at DH than Young as the season advances.
In short, there are plenty of reasons to dislike Young but there are also reasons to expect him to produce well. He is the type of hitter I take a flier on in the later rounds, as he can produce well in four categories for a cheap price. He may bust, but he is in a good situation, in a stadium that should help his home run total, and is still just 26 years old. Your team won’t be devastated if you pass up on Delmon, but you could be missing out on good fantasy value at a very cheap price.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
Agh, I hope Miggy’s right about being ready for Opening Day, but I’m worried!
Pure guess but I think Delmon intentionally sucked with the Twinkies last season to get the hell out of boring Minneapolis. Not sure if Detroit is more exciting, but it’s not hard to be bigger and better than Minneapolis. The downtown is pathetic. I’d hate to be a millionaire athlete in the Twin Cities. Not enough nice places to spend your money. He’s a former top draft pick, 26 years old, great AVG at younger ages. And he has great #s when batting with runners on. Great late round value. Oh yeah, and he’s playing for his next payday…
Not even Delmon is that stupid.
80-30-100-290
Delmon will also have three solid hitters behind him in Avila, Peralta, and Raburn. So, he should reach decent run totals too.
I think 80-17-100-.290 is possible. Depends how much Carbrera and Fielder’s speed clog up the base paths.
The Tigers line-up being very top heavy also helps Delmon. People forget that Delmon actually did not get that many plate appearances in his “break out” year for the Twins. His Twins line may be comparable since he should actually play alot more.
Do they have any substantially better options vs righties than Delmon’s .280/.312/.407 career line?
I was on this guy months ago… Now the hype is rapidly growing with his spring. Sigh.
Detroit isn’t exactly a hitters park, and any manager who would bat someone with as little plate discipline as Young has should be managing in the rookie leagues, if at all. Skill doesn’t rub off on people, as far as I can discern.
Comerica is an above-average hitting environment for RHB. Also, no one is saying that he will magically become a better player. He is just in a perfect situation to accumulate solid fantasy value.
I really, really, REALLY wish people would stop trotting out this stupid lineup placement stuff like it actually has a predictable impact on counting stats. If Young hits the way he did last year it wouldn’t matter if they dug up Babe Ruth’s corpse, cloned it twice and batted all three ahead of him. Keith Law has tried to drive this point home repeatedly – there’s no causal relationship between lineup placement (whether that’s better hitters in front or behind) and statistical output. At best there’s a weak correlation, but even that’s stretching things if I remember correctly.
Max, the one thing you are forgetting is that what you state is true in regards to useful real-life stats but fantasy is big on runs and RBI which are both heavily influenced by the batters in front and behind you. My guess is that Young puts up a sub 300 obp but still gets 100 RBI and a huge extension.
So, tell me, why do players in poorer offenses drive in and score fewer runs? Better offense = R/RBI. That’s 2 out of 5 categories.
How can lineup placement NOT have an effect on counting stats? Someone hitting first is going to have more runs than RBI – someone hitting 6th or 7th is going to have more RBI than runs. If you have two .400 OBP hitters in front of you, you will have more RBI than if you had two .330 OBP hitters in front of you.
Didn’t he hit behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez last year? Didn’t Victor Martinez have a .370 OBP? Let’s be generous and assume that Fielder repeats his .415 OBP from 2011. That’s, what, twenty more runners for him to cash in than he had last year? That’s going to make a significant impact on his counting stats?
Delmon hit in the 3-hole when he came to Detroit, hitting behind Austin Jackson, and a mix of random guys that Jim Leyland would throw in the 2-hole on any given day.
If spring training is any indication. ……
Every year people refuse to give up on this guy, and all they offer is his youth and lineup placement rather than his actual hitting metrics. What is he but a slightly better AL version of Lastings Milledge? Or the batter equivalent of Scott Baker?
He is a career league average hitter, who sports a solid average (but never walks, which is less important in fantasy anyways), and is now batting behind two guys likely to combine for a ~.410 OBP.
This article is not claiming that Delmon will have a real life breakout. rather, it is saying that he is in a great position to have solid fantasy value.
Do people realize that Young is a sucky baseball player? His career wRC is 96 and he’s a terrible outfielder and baserunner.
He’s been a bad player for a while and really has only had that “almost” league average season two years ago.