Grant Balfour Named Oakland’s Closer

Grant Balfour, the man with the awful baseball name and two consecutive sub 2.50 ERAs has been named the new closer in Oakland. Balfour has had stellar performances in three of the past four years and is finally being rewarded with a ninth inning gig. Oakland made the wise call here baseball wise, as Balfour is the better pitcher than Brian Fuentes and now Fuentes can become more of a situational pitcher, which will in turn make him a more valuable member of their bullpen.

Balfour did run into some good fortune last season, stranding 89% of his runners and recording a BABIP of .232, but he also had the highest HR/FB rate of his career, minimum 30 innings pitched, at 11.0%. Balfour is no guarantee for another sub 2.50 ERA, but I could certainly envision him around the 2.80-3.00 mark that he has averaged over the past four seasons.

As a strict two pitch pitcher who generates above average whiff rates with both pitches, Balfour certainly has the stuff to finish with more than a strikeout per inning pitched. Also helping in Balfour’s resurgence over the past few seasons is his walk rate, which has sat at 7.7% and 8.3% over the past two years compared to his career average of 10.9%. His lower walk rate has come with fewer strikeouts but an improved K/BB ratio, which have been his second and third highest of his career over the past two seasons.

Projection systems have his ERA in a wide range, with Bill James expecting a 2.40 and ZiPS expecting a 3.60 mark. I am a bit more bullish on Balfour than ZiPS is, but take that for what it is worth. Looking at shutdowns and meltdowns, last season Balfour finished with 32 and 6 respectively. That was good for a rate of 5.33 shutdowns per meltdown, which ranked him tenth among qualifying relievers. His consistent performances should allow him to hold down the closer spot for the entirety of the season, barring any odd setbacks or injuries.

So, with Balfour now officially being named closer, where does he rank among the herd? In the consensus reliever rankings, our team had Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Joe Nathan, and Kyle Farnsworth ranked 16-19 when excluding projected starting pitchers. I would slot Balfour right in between League and Nathan, as League’s performance last year and lower FIP over the past two seasons gives him the slight edge over Balfour in my eyes.
Despite the middle tier ranking, Balfour is a solid closer to add to a roto roster.

If you were wise enough to speculate on Balfour eventually winning the job, then you likely got him at a very nice discount on draft day. If you are drafting in the near future, target Balfour as he is likely still a bit undervalued due to his inexperience as a closer. I do not place much value in a pitcher having closer experience, but in many cases your league mates will. Take advantage of the players in your league by looking at Balfour’s solid numbers over the past few seasons and expect quite a good year in his first attempt as a full time closer.





Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.

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uncle remus
12 years ago

Grant ballfour! how did i miss that?!
anyways, nice to see things go my way in fantasy