I was looking over Ben Duronio’s 10 Bold Predictions the other day and while I may disagree with some of his calls, nothing inspired me to put pen to paper (fingers to keyboard?) quite like his last prediction that Chris Iannetta “puts it all together” this year.  I’m sure there are a number of my predictions that people will criticize and I’m happy to see it, but to me, Iannetta has been one of the most overvalued catchers in fantasy over the years and I don’t see a move to the Angels being the answer for him.

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One of the keys to winning at fantasy baseball, especially in deep leagues, is to have players that will actually, you know, spend time on the field. No matter how much ability a player possesses, they are useless if they aren’t getting playing time. I am going to look during this preseason for possible changes in playtime for various players.

Todd Helton –- The Rockies plan on playing Helton in only 100 to 110 games in 2012 even if he is healthy.

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The Milwaukee Brewers may have expected to go into the regular season without one of their key players. While the Brewers will have Ryan Braun for the entire season, Corey Hart might miss some time at the beginning of the year following arthroscopic surgery on his knee. Though the outfielder is expected to only miss three-to-four weeks — and might even be ready for Opening Day — there’s also a chance he’ll miss a few games to begin the season. While that doesn’t seem like much, it could have an impact on the transitioning Brewers.

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Last Wednesday, I look at the most overvalued hitters at every position (sans catcher), comparing the positional rankings inferred from the ADPs at Mock Draft Central to my dollar values. Avoiding the players that are unlikely to earn their draft slot or auction price is important, but winners also usually end up with a chock full of players that were undervalued as well. Last time, I looked at the top 10 at each infield position and the top 24 outfielders. This time I will look at every starter expected to generate positive value in a standard, 12-team league.

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1. Cliff Pennington will be a top-five AL SS.

Pennington was a line drive machine last season, finishing sixth among all qualified hitters in both leagues with a 24.8 percent rate. The season before, Pennington still checked in at a solid 21.5 percent, which would suggest ‘11 wasn’t a total aberration. Thus, coinciding with his excellent plate discipline in the minors (nearly 1:1 K/BB rate), Pennington would seem to have a solid chance to improve quite a bit on his .302 wOBA in ‘11, especially if he can start using his non-line drive powers for good (as in, more grounders). Read the rest of this entry »

From Garrett Richards to Wily Peralta.

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Everybody’s doing it! Scattered across the RotoGraphs pages are ten bold predictions by individual writers, so here are mine. Some of mine are out there, and I should get double if No. 2 hits. But I digress, here are my ten bold predictions for the 2012 season.

1. Colby Rasmus will be a top 15 outfielder. I wrote about Rasmus earlier this week, and feel strongly about his ability to bounce back. His average will never be too great, but Toronto is a great park for left-handed home runs (114 on StatCorner) and the Blue Jays finished eighth in the league in steals. A 30-20 season is possible for the 25-year-old.

2. Jayson Werth and Jason Bay both bounce back. Big contracts and lackluster results, that’s been the story for both of these NL East outfielders. I think that changes this year. Bay destroyed lefties last year, 156 wRC+, and I like him getting it together against righties this year. Werth had most of his power disappear, but he is just one year removed from a 146 wRC+ season. I think both finish with marks near 120 this year.
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These aren’t so much predictions as foretellings. I’m not guessing here, I’m cluing you in on what’s to come for the immediate future. Ignore these warnings at your own peril!

1. Josh Johnson will make fewer starts than Johan Santana

There’s a temptation to put Johnson in a category with Adam Wainwright as guys who missed a lot of last season, but shoulder injuries tend to be far more insidious than elbow injuries do. Just ask Chien-Ming Wang. Santana’s on an upward trend, but I fear Johnson won’t be nearly so lucky in 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

Hey, you know me. You know I’ll talk beer or sandwiches or mustaches anytime. But you also know that it’s now MARCH and that means that you’ll be drafting your next fantasy team any minute now. So let’s call this a RotoGraphs chat. I’ll open the window at 1215.. and I’ll actually chat at 1215, for one hour. That’s it. So come and do your thing quickly!

Indeed, I’ve gazed deeply into my crystal ball to present to you yet another set of RotoGraphs bold predictions for 2012. I eagerly anticipate your commentary wrath.

1. Dan Haren wins 20 games. He had pretty rotten run support in 2011 and the Angels did a little something in the off-season that might affect run production. Haren had nine no decisions in which he posted a 2.90 ERA, 0.952 WHIP and an 8.0 K/9. There were 11 games in which the Angels scored two or fewer runs in and Haren won just three of them — but he posted a 2.12 ERA, 0.769 WHIP and a 7.8 K/9. Something’s gotta give, and I say he gets the better end of the wish bone in 2012.

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