It probably didn’t escape too many people’s attention, but it bears repeating: Adam Dunn had a terrible year.

If you knew he was struggling, but didn’t own him, it may not have sunk in just how bad his year was. His line tells much of the story: at .159/.292/.277 he did contributed for the White Sox — nor indeed for fantasy owners. Every one of those statistics was a career low, and his .569 OPS was .250 points lower than his previous career worst. His ISO of .118 put him in league with the likes of Jemile Weeks, Michael Brantley, and Rafael Furcal, which would be fine…if he were a defensively-minded middle infielder instead the third highest-paid DH of all time. He was caught stealing more times — one — than he was intentionally walked; it was the first time in his career he had failed to draw a single intentional pass.

I can understand the excitement for Dunn going into the season in light of his move from Nats Park to US Cell, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, but he was probably still a slight reach at 37. At the end of the day, it matters little whether his projected production would have merited a choice in the early rounds, his actual production made him virtually unplayable.

He won’t be taken in the 30s next year, that much I will guarantee you, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll slip into a range where he could plausibly be called a sleeper. I’m guessing most fantasy players will be willing to write off 2011 as a fluke and look at his career numbers when drafting, but that could still push Dunn into the 50s or 60s in mixed drafts.

My early sense is that he’ll be 2012’s Justin Morneau, who was the next first baseman drafted after Dunn in most leagues. He was taken about 25 picks after Dunn and 20 picks before Kendrys Morales, clearly setting him away from not only the top tier first baseman, but also from the perceived weaker options. Like Morneau in 2011, there is uncertainty about what Dunn will do, but there is an expectation of improvement.

So the question is: Was Dunn’s miserable 2011 a fluke?

2011 was Dunn’s second straight year of declining production, and while the difference between 2009 and 2010 wasn’t nearly so drastic as the drop between 2010 and 2011, it does mean that 2011 isn’t isolated or counter to Dunn’s career arc. The difference between Dunn’s useful 2010 and his painful 2011 comes down to the contact he was making, which manifested itself in two major ways: his BABIP and his flyball rate.

While Dunn will never be a high average hitter, the time spent waiting for his power to show up would have been less painful if he had hit above .250. Instead, his BABIP fell 89 points from 2010 to 2011 and sat 50 points below his career average. He actually had a good line drive percentage, but his flyballs seemed drawn to gloves. His BABIP will rise next year, the conditions for it failing to do so are hard to imagine, but that won’t help Dunn’s home run numbers.

Dunn hit fewer flyballs this year than he had in any season since 2008 and had less than 10 percent of them leave the yard. The low HR/FB rate is the bigger issue, but it was compounded by the fact that he gave himself the fewest chances to hit a home run ever. Prior to last season, Dunn had never hit fewer than 130 flyballs, but in 2011, he hit just 114. His 47.5 percent flyball rate was his lowest since 2008. Add in his highest pop-up rate since 2003 and it would seem that Dunn simply struggled to make good contact. Few balls in play were hit hard enough to turn into hits and even fewer were hit squarely enough to leave the park.

His swinging rates and contact numbers would seem to support this idea. While he swung at fewer pitches overall than he did in 2010, he frequently made contact on pitches that were out of the zone — a career high 57 percent in fact. He made contact on pitches in the zone, pitches he could actually drive, at his worst rate since 2004. Pitchers certainly weren’t looking to give Dunn any help as he saw the lowest number of pitches in the strike zone in his career. A bit more patience might have given Dunn and tremendous AVG/OBP split fueled by a huge walk rate, but he swung at pitches out of the zone and threw opposing pitchers a lifeline.

Unless Dunn simply lost his ability to identify pitches — doubtful — I don’t see him having the same issues again next year. Whether he was pressing because of his new contract or for some other reason, I find it somewhat hard to believe that it’ll be present again next year. If he’ll challenge for 40 HR again, I can’t say, but with his BABIP bouncing back and a little better pitch selection, there’s no reason to believe Dunn can’t get his OPS back into the .850-.900 range.

Last season, there was plenty of fanfare when Anthony Rizzo was brought up by the San Diego Padres.  He was the prized, power hitting lefty acquired in the Adrian Gonzalez deal and with the Padres removed from playoff contention and looking to save a little face, it was time to see what he could do.  Unfortunately for him, the team, and his fantasy owners, the call-up turned into just a quick cup of coffee as Rizzo ultimately flopped.  Granted it was just 153 plate appearances, but with a K-rate of 30.1% and a triple-slash line of .141/.281/.242, the 22 year old Rizzo looked over-matched.  This year, as we head into spring, the Padres will likely give him every opportunity to win the first base job and while his owners are hoping for him to succeed, Jesus Guzman just might have something to say about it.

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Few things excite fans more than mega pitching prospects. Sizzling fastball velocity, sinister breaking pitches, off-speed stuff that makes grown men look like dizzy, blindfolded kids slashing at a pinata. Every spring, there’s a short list of elite starting pitching prospects on the cusp of the major leagues who are considered must-haves. It’s hard not to get swept up in the quest to draft The Next Big Thing. Hit on one of these picks, and you’ll not only climb the standings, but you’ll also look cool, trendy and sage. Prophetic, even. I knew he’d be a star right away, you brag to your friends as your young ace crushes their dreams of victory and empties their pockets.

That’s if putting down a high pick on that top starting prospect works out, however. And, as anyone who once saw stardom for the likes of Nick Neugebauer, Carlos Hernandez or Adam Loewen can tell you, young arms are anything but predictable. For every Stephen Strasburg, there are dozens of Jesse Fopperts and John Van Benschotens.

To add some clarity to the top pitching prospect conundrum, I sought to answer the following question: Just how good are these young guns during their first extended run in the major leagues? Do they tend to dominate from Day One, or are they merely average? Answering that question goes a long way toward determining when to pop that elite pitching prospect.

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Let’s finish up the fourth tier since we managed to get past the two most polarizing players (Shane Victorino and Matt Holliday) without starting a land war in Asia. These are the last National League outfielders that you can keep and feel comfortable about it — and they have their own discomforting details. You might describe both parts of this fourth tier as the group you’d like to trade if you can get strong (younger) value back in your keeper leagues.

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Well, Tuesday was certainly a busy day in the AL Central. And while I’d love to drop 1500 words or so on Bill Smith’s exit and the return of Terry Ryan, unless you’re in an AL-Only front office league, that’s not exactly fantasy relevant. Also, if you’re in a league that counts front office members, tell me in the comments, I’d love to see that.) The Sanchez-for-Cabrera swap, on the other hand, is worth looking into.

I love this deal, not for either team per se, but as an observer with no rooting interest. This is a deal that could make either GM look really good, and while I have my suspicions as to who will look better come this time next year, I wouldn’t bet much money either way. Jonathan Sanchez is a high strikeout arm who can’t keep runners off base, while Melky Cabrera hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency throughout his career either. It will be an interesting story line to follow next year.

From a fantasy perspective, I don’t see Sanchez being an option except in very deep mixed and by default in AL-Only. His strikeout rate — the 11th highest in baseball (min 100 IP) — makes him alluring, but he was owned in just 44 percent of Yahoo! leagues last year because of his substantial downside.

In 2010, his .252 BABIP kept his hit rate down, which meant he posted a WHIP you can live with, 1.23, despite a BB/9 of nearly 4.5. In 2011, his BABIP didn’t even fully regress to his career average, but a jump of 20 points up to .272 was enough to pull his hit rate back into the 7s. In and of itself, a H/9 of 7.1 is fine, but when it’s paired with a BB/9 of 5.9, his resulting WHIP of 1.44 is tough to swallow. He’s never been particularly good at run prevention, and he matched his career ERA of 4.26 precisely in 2011. The strikeouts and walks are part-and-parcel of Sanchez at this point, and while perhaps a new pitching coach will know how to help him, I’m not banking on that happening. A change of scenery will be nice, I’m sure, but it’s not going to help him a lick statistically speaking.

A good rule of thumb when a pitcher switches from the NL to the AL is to add half a run to his ERA — as of 2008, the actual number was .41 runs, but if your just looking for a ballpark figure, .5 is easier to remember — which would give Sanchez an ERA of nearly 4.75. He’s also moving from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors to a relatively even park in KC. Home runs haven’t been one of his major issues in the past, but he’ll need to be a little more careful in a stadium that doesn’t suppress them the way AT&T Park does. If his HR rate does jump with the park switch, his walk rate will make those bombs all the more costly.

One thing working in Sanchez’s favor, and it isn’t much, is that he was injured for a large portion of the 2011 season. Biceps tendinitis and an ankle sprain caused him to miss nearly 80 days of the season, limiting him to just 19 starts, his fewest since he became a full-time starter in 2008. It isn’t too much of a stretch to suggest that the biceps injury may have been causing him trouble before it pushed him to the disabled list, but suggesting that it made a profound difference is going too far. He should be healthy next year, which is a good foundation, but it’s not going to solve his location issues.

It may seem odd, given the rather grim take I’ve presented above, but I like this deal for the Royals. To understand what they see in Sanchez, I think it’s important to look at what they gave up. Part of the reason I like this deal for the Royals is that they’ve essentially purchased two lottery tickets with found money. They grabbed Cabrera last offseason for $1.25 million, and by moving him at what was almost surely peak value, have now turned him into two players who could be useful parts. Yes, both have serious flaws and Cabrera could well prove to be the best player in this deal, but with Lorenzo Cain waiting in the wings, it’s an interesting gamble to take.

If the choice was a player like Sanchez, who may or may not be valuable or someone like Bud Norris, who will be more consistent at a similar WAR level, I think the Royals made the right call. Sanchez is likely to give them at least a handful of starts where he has his good stuff and shuts down an opponent, but I just don’t see them coming often enough for him to be worthwhile in most fantasy contexts. Anything he produces above and beyond that is found money once again for KC.

I know a lot of you have been asking about Hanley Ramirez’s whereabouts in these tiers. I’ve purposely excluded him simply because I honestly don’t know where to include him. I’ll have a whole discussion on his rank come Friday. You can hurl your insults at me then. For now, on to Tier Four.

Alexei Ramirez $9

There may not be a more consistently mediocre hitter than Ramirez. Over the last three seasons his wOBA’s are .319, .322 and .319. He’s hit 15, 18 and 15 home runs. He’s driven in 68, 70 and 70 runs. His stolen base total was cut in half this past season, but from 2008-2010 it was 13, 14 and 13. It’s safe to say he likes duplicates. His plate discipline and batted ball numbers have been steady as well. He’s not a star and really doesn’t have the potential to be one. What is he? He’s an average shortstop who benefits from playing in a hitter friendly park. There will be no surprises one way or another in keeping Ramirez.

Yunel Escobar $5

Speaking of average shortstops, Escobar fits that bill nicely. Where Alexei Ramirez is lacking in average and on-base-percentage, those are areas Escobar does well. I’m overlooking his 2010 season for a number of reasons. Excluding that year he’s never hit below .288 nor had an on-base-percentage under .366. His career 54.9 percent ground ball rate takes away any power potential he may possess. He was greatly helped by the Rogers Centre in 2011, hitting .321/.416/.480 there; a .226 point difference in OPS from his road games. Escobar was a pleasant surprise in 2011, flying under the radar and going later than he probably should have in most drafts due to his rocky 2010. He’s the last of the shortstops you should consider keeping.

Alcides Escobar $4

The only asset Escobar possesses on the offensive side of things is his speed. He stole 26 bases last season and has stolen as many as 42 at the Triple-A level. He had some hot streaks last season, posting a .357 wOBA in June and a .372 in September. In the other four months he failed to muster anything higher than a .278. If you’ve drafted properly Escobar shouldn’t be starting over any other shortstop you have in a standard league. Unless you’re desperate for steals, he’s more of a bench player and profiles to a fringe starter in deeper leagues.

Ian Desmond $4

Being a slightly better version of Alcides Escobar isn’t a compliment. They each cannot hit for average or take a walk, but Desmond hits for more power, granted he’s not exactly Tulowitzki-like in that category. Unlike Escobar he failed to have any exceedingly good months, peaking with a wOBA of .348, otherwise riding along in the sea of obscurity. He has a minor league track record of hitting success, but in his two full MLB seasons that has yet to translate. There’s double digit home run potential and he’ll steal you ~20 bases, but he’s below par in runs, runs batted in, average and on-base-percentage.

Using Zach Sanders’ super-fantastic-shiny-new Fantasy Value Above Replacement auction value tool, we’ve covered just about every last third baseman worth his salt. This will be the last installment of the third base keepers as we’re pretty well out of keepers to discuss.

To recap, Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria made up the very thin first tier.

The second tier looked like this:

Brett Lawrie
Pablo Sandoval
Ryan Zimmerman
Adrian Beltre
David Wright
Aramis Ramirez
Kevin Youkilis

Third Tier:

Alex Rodriguez
Mark Reynolds
Michael Young
Chipper Jones
Edwin Encarnacion
Ryan Roberts
David Freese
Mike Moustakas
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Allow me to state up front that this was easily the most difficult tier to get a handle on. Within this volatile batch lies a smorgasbord of youngsters on the rise and vets on the decline, as well as versatile across-the-board accruers and single category studs.

Before we unveil this tier, I must first extend my appreciation to Dayton Moore for swooping in to my rescue — just in time, no less — so I wouldn’t have to rank my arch nemesis, Melky Cabrera, who for the record would have slotted in at the end of this crop. I think.

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With Melky Cabrera being trade from the Royals to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez, Lorenzo Cain became the everyday center fielder for the Royals. His fantasy value has skyrocketed with this move.

Lorenzo was traded to the Royals from the Brewers as part of the Zack Greinke trade. With the 2010 Brewers, he played in 43 games hitting .306 with 1 HR and 7 SBs. Besides, 6 games played with the Royals at the end of the season as a August call up, he has spent the rest of his career in the minors.

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So by now you have certainly heard and/or read about the off-season’s first blockbuster. This time, two general managers typically panned by stat nerds locked horns. Yesterday, Jack Moore looked at the Giants acquisition of Melky Cabrera from a real baseball perspective. Today, I will dive into the fantasy impact of Cabrera’s move to the land of Rice-A-Roni. Will Melk(y) do a Giants fan’s body good?

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