Lorenzo Cain and the Royals Lineup: Trade Aftershocks

by
November 8, 2011

With Melky Cabrera being trade from the Royals to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez, Lorenzo Cain became the everyday center fielder for the Royals. His fantasy value has skyrocketed with this move.

Lorenzo was traded to the Royals from the Brewers as part of the Zack Greinke trade. With the 2010 Brewers, he played in 43 games hitting .306 with 1 HR and 7 SBs. Besides, 6 games played with the Royals at the end of the season as a August call up, he has spent the rest of his career in the minors.

Early in his minor league career, he had a K% around 25%. In 2010, the level dropped below 20% and has not gone above that point since then. It will be key for him to keep his K% low because he has not shown any power until 2011 in AAA, when he hit 16 home runs.

One of Cain’s best fantasy attributes is stealing bases. He averaged nearly 20 SBs a season in the minors. This trend will continue in the majors for a couple of reasons.

1. No matter where he his in the lineup, he will have the green light from manager Ned Yost. The Royals got 26 steals from Jeff Francoeur last season. Anyone and everyone attempts steals for the Royals.

2. He could be batting lead off on opening day. Dayton Moore has stated that he would like a more traditional lead off man (fast with some on base skills) than Alex Gordon (who will probably be moved to the 2nd spot in the lineup). If he gets the lead off spot, the chances for SB goes up substantially.

Besides increase SB chances, being the lead off hitter will mean that he has more of a chance to accumulate runs. With Gordon, Hosmer and Butler hitting after him, he will get a plenty of Run opportunities. Gordon and Cabrera hit 1st and 2nd this last season and each scored over 100 runs.

For 2012, I see Cain hitting around a .280 to .300 AVG, 5 to 10 HRs, 70 to 100 Runs, and 10 to 35 SBs. The upper bounds of these numbers look nice, but the lower numbers seem possible also.

The other player’s fantasy value affected most by the move is Alex Gordon. He will lose about 20 PA during the season by hitting 2nd vice 1st. Also he will see a shift from Runs to more RBI chances by moving off the lead off spot. Finally, I would expect his SBs to take a bit of hit.

The Royals got a career year out of Melky Cabrera in 2011. His production will be missed by those hitting after him. I don’t expect Cain to duplicate Mekly’s 2011 production, so the other Royals hitters may see a drop in Run or RBI opportunities.

When the smoke clears out of this trade, the real winner in the Cabrera for Sanchez trade will be Lorenzo Cain. He looks to have inherited the center field job and lead off spot for the Royals which could be help inflate his fantasy value.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Paul
12 years ago

Couple things. First, that projection for Cain is flat-out nutty. If he progresses with the necessary adjustments throughout the season I can see him moving up in the lineup, but he’s not a leadoff hitter right now. He flails at average sliders in the strike zone. I think you need to dramatically drop the BA outlook, but probably increase the HRs. Second, on the leadoff point, Ned Yost likes Alex leading off. I would not be shocked to see them move Alcides Escobar to second in the lineup to bunt and play small ball. And Ned Yost seems to be making some discoveries late in life, so I would not be shocked to see him move Hosmer to 2, Butler 3, and Frenchy 4.

The other main point here is to call into question the notion that Cain is the starting CF for the Royals now. If the don’t trade him I agree that it’s likely. However, I’d actually be a little surprised if they don’t still move him for Jurrjens. At which point he’s probably not an everyday player until Bourn leaves after this year. The Braves are going to quickly realize that teams are going to hold out on them because their farm system is so barren for offensive prospects. They love Cain, I think they’ll relent eventually.

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GLP
12 years ago
Reply to  Paul

If the Royals trade Cain, who do you propose will play CF for them, Jarrod Dyson? Cain isn’t going anywhere now.

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Paul
12 years ago
Reply to  GLP

That or Mitch Maier would not shock me. Neither would signing Nate McLouth and asking Seitz to fix yet another screwed up guy they can flip for something.

I think people are not recognizing that their starting pitching was atrocious. While I’m sure they are happy with Hochevar and Paulino taking steps forward, the FO thinks they can compete this year and with good reason. Their pythag had them just under .500 even with that horrible starting pitching.

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Paul

The AVG is fine with his 2011 MLE having him hitting 0.282 and 2 of the projection have him has a greater than 0.280 hitter. The runs and SB will come if at the top of the lineup with the rest of the team behind him.

If Escobar is in in the #2 spot, Ned Yost has not learned a damn thing and should be fired. It would be worse than when he batted Getz leadoff or Kendall 2nd.

The team has recently stated they love the left-right combination of Homser and Butler in the 3 and 4 holes.

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Paul
12 years ago
Reply to  Jeff Zimmerman

If you don’t believe me, ask Greg Schaum if he thinks Cain will hit .280 by next year.

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