Archive for November, 2011

Changes in Home Run and Fly Distance from 2010 to 2011

Many players show a power increase in the form of higher HRs, SLG and ISO from one season to the next. Today, I am using MLB batted ball data to see which players showed an actual increase in home run and fly distances from 2010 to 2011. This data helps show if there was an underlying talent change from 2010 to 2011.

To get the values, I used batted ball data that MLB provides. It is the data seen on spray charts during games and on their website. The data is not perfect. It is not close to perfect. Right now, it is the best publicly available batted ball data.

If you want to look at the data for any player or over any time frame, you can goto:
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/
User: fangraphs
PW: Dave (capital D)
Click on: Angle and Distance of a Hitter’s Batted Balls
Enter in the player and parameters.

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Stubbs, Young, Maybin, Morrison: Tier 5 NL OF Keepers

We’ve looked at four tiers worth of National League Outfield Keepers. That’s 13 dudes, or at least one keeper per team in a 12-team NL-only. If you’re in a traditional keeper league — one in which you keep fewer than eight players — then we’ve probably come to the end of your more attractive keepers. So many of the remaining options are buy-low guys better acquired at a draft or auction, or they are solid performers with real flaws that don’t figure to go away. Or they are older players that you are just keeping because nobody will buy them from you.

But let’s look at the best of the rest, shan’t we?

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2012 Closer Keeper Rankings: Tier One

My colleagues here have been ranking the top keepers by position for the last month or so, and now it’s time to get caught up on the guys pitching at the end of the game, the closers. There aren’t many relievers out there worth a keeper spot, especially in leagues that limit you to four or five keepers, but these four guys are the very best of the best. They offer top-of-the-line production and job security, but they also play on what are expected to be strong teams. Theoretically, they’re in line for more save chances.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season value rankings for reference, but they were not the sole criteria used to create the keeper rankings or delineate the tiers.

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As For the Rest of the Twins…

It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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Is Ryan Doumit the New Mike Napoli?

Mike Napoli was one of the most valuable fantasy catchers last season. Hell, Napoli was one of the best “real-life” players in baseball last season as well. How did this happen? Well, Napoli was finally given the opportunity to shine. Ryan Doumit looks to be in a similar situation next season, as the Minnesota Twins may utilize him in a similar manner. Opportunity knocks for Ryan Doumit in 2012, but can he answer the call?
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Alex Rios: Rebound or Dead to Me?

Seeing Alex Rios lumped in with uninspiring names like Brennan Boesch and Jason Kubel in the fifth outfielder keeper ranking tier reminds us just how much this recent five-category contributor has fallen. There seemed to be something in the water in Chi-Town this season, as there were quite a few offensive busts this year. With a new manager in town, does Rios lead the Sox offensive rebound or has the Windy City swept his fantasy value under the rug for good?

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How Will Wandy Rodriguez Fare in the AL?

For the first three seasons of his career, Wandy Rodriguez was nothing more than your average, run-of-the-mill starting pitcher.  He had an ERA that ranged from 4.58 to 5.64, a HR/FB rate perpetually above 10%, his walk rate was too high and his strikeout rate was too low.  There was very little worthwhile contribution from him to the fantasy baseball community.  But then Wandy turned a corner in his fourth full season and from there, began to blossom into a pitcher of value.  Sure, he had his explosive moments on the hill, but overall, he settled in nicely as one of the Astros more consistent and reliable starters.  His ERA stayed below 4.00, the home runs came down, and he started posting a K/9 that was steadily just above 8.00 each season.  However, last season there was regression across the board save for the ERA and suddenly the numbers were starting to look horribly similar to his early years, including a horrific 13.0% HR/FB rate.  Now, with the Astros moving to the American League West soon, the question is whether or not Wandy can right the ship or have we seen the best that he has to offer?

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Implications of Houston’s Move on Brett Wallace

The Houston Astros are headed for the American League West in 2013 in order to provide balance among divisions, and in the process, apparently raise the ire of the Houston faithful. The move certainly has fantasy implications for the Astros pitchers as most research points to fewer strikeouts and higher ERA’s when players move from the NL to the AL. But one player that could be impacted by the move is Brett Wallace.

First of all, you have to admit that it’s a fitting punctuation to Wallace’s travels that his entire team is moving divisions. After being the first selection in the 2008 draft by the St. Louis Cardinals, Wallace has already had three more employers. He was traded by the Cardinals in July of 2009 in a package for Matt Holliday, traded five months later to the Blue Jays for Michael Taylor, and then dealt six months later to the Astros for Anthony Gose. Perhaps he’s run out of geographical locations as a fit and whatever karma he’s carrying decided that his entire team needed a fresh change as well. But I digress. A lot.

It’s not the statistical effect of moving from the NL to the AL that will impact Wallace necessarily — it’s the availability of the designated hitter. So let’s take a brief look at why.

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Type-B Free Agent Compensation Pick Highlight Reel

In 2006, the major league baseball collective bargaining agreement scrapped Type C free agents, modified what it meant to be a Type A free agent and then gave us Type B free agents, affording the former employer a “sandwich” pick (thus, it no doubt should be referred to as the Eno Sarris pick) between the first and second rounds. This rule was first put into effect in 2007. A moderate amount of chaos ensued.

As the collective bargaining agreement is being currently re-worked, there have been rumors that Type-B free agents will be done away with, that Type-B compensation picks will be done away with, or both (we’ve recently learned that there will be Type-B free agents for this off-season). What’s at stake is fairly obvious, but it did get me wondering about the sandwich picks since 2008 and what has become of them. There are some pretty interesting names in here. While their teams wouldn’t be categorically annihilated, the absence of some of these players would certainly put a dent their respective farm systems, and in a couple cases their major league rosters.

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Crowd Sourcing and All Questions Answered Thread

First, I am looking at player projections that could be off because of a player playing through an injury. For example, in 2010 Ben Zobrist played through a back injury which hurt his projections for 2011. Do you know of any player that played through an injury in the past few years, especially last year? I want to see if, and how much, projections are off for these players.

Second, ask away with your fantasy baseball questions.