Crowd Sourcing and All Questions Answered Thread
First, I am looking at player projections that could be off because of a player playing through an injury. For example, in 2010 Ben Zobrist played through a back injury which hurt his projections for 2011. Do you know of any player that played through an injury in the past few years, especially last year? I want to see if, and how much, projections are off for these players.
Second, ask away with your fantasy baseball questions.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Chris B. Young played through a thumb injury that plagued him from June onward in 2011. D-backs fans please chime in w/ more specifics.
Andre Ethier played through a leg injury last year.
David Wright had some back problems he tried to play through, and he always seemed hurt somehow.
Is it worth holding on to Gordon Beckham in my dynasty league, or should I let him go for a prospect? Even if he improves a little, I have a hard time seeing him ever become the hitter he was hyped to be. Am I right?
Depending of the league’s depth, there is no reason to hold onto hope. Do you see anyone picking him up?
I think Gordon’s Beckham problems have to do with pitch recognition. He tends to swing at a lot of stuff outside of the strike zone. I have a hard time seeing them disappear overnight.
That being said, he’s still young, has lots of playing time, and occasionally has long hot streaks. Depending on how deep your league is, he can still be of interest.
Jason Heyward battled through well-documented shoulder issues through the season.
Mark Reynolds hamstring in 2010.
How long til we see Anthony Rendon getting a shot in the Pirates infield?
Scott is right, he is with Washington a blocked by Zimmerman. I would also love to see what he he can do at AA and AAA first.
He’s being moved to 2b with the expectation that he should be ready to join the club around 2013.
Rendon is in the Washington system
Bourn or Napoli in an OBP/SLG keeper league where I have Bautista and Tulo as my two other keepers. Keeping Napoli is a total no brainer right, even with the massive regression that he is bound to experience? With Tulo as my shortstop I always am short on SB’s, which is why I am tempted to keep Bourn, and in our format they were roughly equivalent in value this year.
Napoli. He is one of the few C which usually gets at bats on his off days.
I am not see a huge regression. Hitting in Texas will help anyone.
Last keeper spot for deep dynasty league…. Jacob Turner or Nolan Arenado?
Tough one.
I usually like the hitter over a pitcher, but Turner is in the majors. I would go with Turner. If you have a very deep pitching staff, you could wait an extra year or two for Nolan Arenado.
Care to project CWS OF Alejandro de Aza for a full season at leadoff in 2012?
A nice sleep for 2012, especially if he is able to secure the lead off spot. His Runs should be in the 100 range if he gets 150 games starts at the top of the lineup. I would expect more SB if Ozzie was still around, but should be between 15 to 30.
Also, who the hell is MIN Luke Hughes? He picked up his game late in 2011 and just wondering if he might have a chance of starting for the Twins in 2012. Do you have any scouting knowledge of this guy?
I asked our prospect guys on an opinion. He reminds of Jack Cust without the walks.
In August he did most of his damage and came back to normal in Sept. I would see where he ends up playing with the Twins.
Thanks Jeff
May not make the team at all. Twins signed Jamey Carroll to play SS and Doumit as a bat at 1B/DH?RF. Hughes will be 28 next August. He’s a marginal backup and he’ll face competition to make the team. Trevor Plouffe is two years younger, has just as much pop and has been injury-free, which Hughes has not.
Hughes will probably be the primary backup for 2B and 3B next year. It’s certainly possible Casilla or Valencia will manage to play their way out of a starting job, but Hughes isn’t likely to be particularly good.
Looking for thoughts on 2 SP’s. Cueto and Collmenter. Is either going to take the next step forward and become a decent SP3?
I think a person has an idea of what to expect from Johnny Cueto, 6 K/9, 3 BB/9, some possible control over BABIP.
Collmenter has similar 2011 stats as Cueto. His K/9 was a little better than Cueto’s in the minors. He probably has the better chance of improving, but it isn’t going to be by much.
I don’t see either take a huge step forward.
How valuable is a $1 Cory Luebke for two years (maximum contract length) in a fairly deep $260 NL Keeper League, where you must keep around 10 players every season? How much surplus value is there (in 2012 and less importantly in 2013)?
Keep him. He had a value of $9 in 2011. He should at least have around $5 of surplus value in 2012 with a $1 price tag.
Thanks
How about a few Prospect Smackdowns?
Better prospect: Rendon vs Arenado, S. Miller vs Bauer, Bogaerts vs Machado, Gose vs D. Brown. Thanks!
Rendon vs. Arenado: Rendon since he’s potentially a 2B w/ Zimm blocking him at 3rd.
S. Miller vs. Bauer: Bauer because he’s a year younger and seemingly on the faster track to the majors with equally glowing scouting reports.
Bogaerts vs. Machado- It’s not looking good for Bogaerts staying at SS, so I’d go Machado on position scarcity and similar power upside. This is sorta apples to oranges if Bogaerts ends up at 3B and I’d consider both elite future infield prospects.
D. Brown vs. Gose- Since Amaro would prefer to see Brown in AAA for 500-600 AB in 2012 when he’ll be playing at age 24, this is discouraging and then some….Gose has a much better chance to debut at an earlier age and stick. He’s 3 years younger and probably 1.5 years or less away from sticking in the bigs. Plus he’s a CF level athlete/glove which will also help him stick in the lineup upon promotion.
On whom I’d rather have on my real-life team, it’s Rendon, Bauer, Machado, and Brown, and it’s not close for any of them.
shelby miller is 3 months older than bauer, let’s not overstate the age difference
I get to keep 6 of these guys no strings attached. Whos left out. OPS and K’s are extra offensive stats and HLDs and CG are extra pitching stats added onto 5×5.
Napoli, Kinsler, Uggla, Ryan Zimmerman, Jose Reyes, Nelson Cruz, Ellsbury, Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Bryce Harper.
Good question,
If me (I like having my IF set up and am not fond of keeping pitchers), I would keep:
Kinsler, Ellsbury, Reyes, Cruz, Zimmerman, Kershaw
The one problem I see with your team is a lack of any true top pick. I may look at other teams that may not have as deep of keepers and look for a trade for a top talent. Your top two trade chips are Kershaw just coming off the Cy Young award and Harper.. I may try to trade Zimmerman and Kershaw for Bautista. This trade will improve your 3B and allow you to keep Harper.
Uggla/Cruz have to be out if K’s can hurt you on offense plus they’re older players and Cruz can’t say on the field.
2 of these 3 should be your other cuts depending on needs/format:
Napoli, Bumgarner, Harper
If your league only keeps 6 players, just keep one pitcher. Also petition your commish to change CG to QS. CG are an awful/scarce/unpredictable fantasy category.
Your team looks pretty good w/ those 6 keepers, but consider keeping Harper over Bumgarner/Napoli if you could get amazing trade value for him and end up with a more desirable player than Bum or Nap. It appears that you should be in “win now” mode w/ Zimm, Reyes, Ells, Kershaw all at or approaching peak years
alex rodruiguez played through injury last year. he always gets hurt, but the thumb injury late in the year stole all of his power. i could see him rebounding and hitting 25-30 homers next year as opposed to the 15-20 he looked like this year.
rodriguez***
I’m straining my brain over which 2 to keep for my final 2 keeper spots: Carlos Santana, Lawrie, or Strasburg.
I would go with Lawrie and Santana. I am heavy pro-hitter in these decisions and Stras is said to be on a IP limit of 200 for 2012.
I love hitters too, but if you are leaving Strasburg off your keeper list you’re keeping the wrong guy. There is nothing to suggest that he won’t be among the best starters in baseball this year other than a purported innings limit. If it’s indeed 200 innings, that’s 35 starts using his current average innings per start.
Thanks everyone for the injury data. It is a little advantage I would like explore for our readers.
I noticed that a lot of the guys that struggled with injury last year are ones that have kind of been labeled as injury-prone the last few years. Like Matt Holliday and Kevin Youkillis.
Utley came back too soon last year and was never right. Of course, his projections were already discounted due to 2010 injury. It’s just one damn thing after another.
Who has the better pure “stuff”, Verlander or Strasburg?
I will say Stras, but having stuff and being able to throw 220+ innings for years puts Verlander a step above.
what type of seasons do you expect out of mccutchen and jennings next year?
I see no reason for either to drop off much.
The main down fall for both of these two are counting stats. The chances for Run and RBIs will be down for the Pirates and Rays.
The BJ projections seem reasonalble for these two.
More Prospect Smackdowns:
Bauer vs Hultzen
Panik vs K. Wong (at 2B)
D. Bundy vs Cole (yes I know Bundy has yet to throw as a pro)
Would you rather have Halladay or Lincecum over the next 3 years in a 10 team standard league?
Lincecum, but you will probably be good either way.
Would you trade Freese for Lucas Duda and David Hernandez in ottoneu?
Probably not depending on what you paid for Freese. I am high on Duda, but decent 3B are tough to find.
Heyward and Latos or Hamels and Stephen Drew. Normal 5×5 head to head. No keeper costs just 10 guys.
I like the Heyward and Latos side. Heyward looks to rebound once healed and has good long term potential
Hamels is better than Latos, when healty, which isn’t all the time.
How would you rank the following based on true upside potential and if you had any comps for each that would be awesome! Gary Brown, Nolan Arenado, Yasmani Grandal, Willin Rosario, Anthony Rendon, Matt Adams, Yu Darvish, Carlos Martinez, Matt Harvey & Tyler Skaggs.
Heads up, I am not a huge prospect person. You would probably be better off asking my fellow writers Newman or Hulet.
Please rank the following in a H2H, 7 keeper 6×5 (OPS as the 6th category):
Pence, Bourn, Heyward, Morse, Lawrie, A-Rod, Choo, and Rollins
Thanks!
Lawrie
Heyward
Rollins – depends on where he ends ups signing and hitting in the lineup.
Arod – 3B is shallow
Pence
Bourn
Morse
Choo
12 team 5×5 H2H league. We get to keep 5 players. Next season we may up the keepers to around 9. My sure thing keepers are J Upton, Halladay and Kinsler. Who else should I keep out of Hanley(who I’m pretty sure played through some injuries last year), Pence, Napoli, Lawrie, Jennings and Strasburg? I was leaning toward Hanley and Pence.
I would keep all of them if the picks is 9. I see all them going in the first nine rounds or in the top 108 picks (12*9).
If it is only 5 picks, Hanley is a for sure keeper. Pence is the safest choice. I like Lawrie to fill out your IF and as a long term keeper.
I looked through all the comments but I did not see Brian Roberts mentioned anywhere. He was Mr. Dependable for years and a guy everyone would be happy to have man their second base slot, but the past 2 years he’s been riddled with injuries. Some say age is catching up with him, but I’d like to believe the injuries played a part in his demise and he could still bounce back. Thoughts?
I will add him to my list of hurt players. The problem with him is the concussion and not playing at all once getting it in 2011. I really want to see him play a few games in ST first before making him my everyday 2B. I see many people staying away, but he has one of the highest upsides in 2012.
Denard Span should be added to the list as well. I believe he came back for a bit after the concussion then had to go back to the DL for the same injury.
Michael Morse – where to draft him next year/projections?
I took him for a buck this year on a whim and it really paid off, too bad it wasn’t a keeper
10 team 7×7 H2H keeper league (TB, OPS, OBA, QS) keep 10 players. I’m trying to fill out my last 4 spots between….Uggla, Greinke, Jennings, D. Hudson, Mauer, Cueto, Matt Moore, Mike Trout.