– Despite being nearly ready to return in early-August, Adrian Beltre is going to be on the DL for a little while longer. Beltre aggravated his injured hamstring while running earlier this month, and has essentially had to start his rehab over from scratch, making an August return unlikely. It’s a shame for Beltre owners, as the third baseman was putting up good power numbers and could have expected his batting average to rise. His injury may have hurt his fantasy owners, but it has helped owners of Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland, as the two have have been seeing extremely consistent playing time.

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What to expect from Kelly Johnson in Toronto – Kelly has been a disappointment this season, mainly for his inability to make contact (27.4 K% vice a career 20.9 K%) and get a hit (0.257 BABIP vice a career 0.309 BABIP). He has been a nice source of home runs (18) and stolen bases (13) though.

Johnson’s home run ability should not take much of a hit since the LHH park factor for home runs is the same for each park (114). In Toronto, the park factors for singles, doubles and triples are all less than they were in Arizona. Rogers Centre will put another dent in Johnson already beat up season AVG.

I am not sure of Toronto’s plan for where he bats in the lineup so his value could be effected on where he finally ends up. He should see some more Runs + RBIs since Toronto’s offense averages 0.3 R/G more than Arizona’s offense. Finally in Toronto, he should be in the field everyday (which wasn’t happening recently in Arizona).

I see Johnson’s Runs and RBI’s up, HRs staying the same, while his AVG might even take more of hit because of the trade.

What to expect from Aaron Hill in Arizona – Hill, like Johnson, has had a disappointing 2011 season. A 0.225 AVG and 6 HRs are a let down from the 0.286 AVG and 36 HRs from just 2 years ago.

Looking at the stadium numbers, Hill’s home run potential will go down as he goes from a RHH HR PF of 116 in Toronto to 102 in Arizona. While his HR rate looks to take a hit, he should get a boost in his AVG because of the higher PF for singles, doubles and triples.

The chances for RBI’s and Runs will go down since Arizona doesn’t score as many runs as the Toronto offense.

Hill looks like he should get a chance to turn it around in Arizona, but the home park and his teammates look to limit his upside.

What to expect to from John McDonald in Arizona – McDonald’s value jumped the most from this trade. He looks to be the everyday SS in Arizona since Stephen Drew is out for the season. He will occur the same downgrades that Hill has because of the stadium and surrounding teammates. While he is not an offensive force, he should be getting playing time everyday and help an owner in a deep or NL only league with some counting stats.

Thanks to statcorner.com for the Park Factors

Ted Lilly

2011 has been unkind to Lilly owners. His last 12 starts in 2010 portended good things going forward — he struck out a batter per inning and posted a WHIP under 1.00 during his time with the Dodgers. 2011 has seen Lilly struggle to put together quality starts consistently, a trait far more maddening than simply being terrible.

He’s still struggling to go deep into ballgames, which exacerbates any base runners and runs he allows, but his last five outings have been consistently survivable, something that couldn’t be said of any other five start stretch of the season. His WHIP this month is the fourth best in the NL at 0.86 and he boasts a top-10 ERA to match. He is winless on the month, having gotten 0,1, and 0 runs of support in his three losses and a no decision in his worst start. If he continues to pitch well, the wins should follow.

It’s tempting to latch onto that WHIP and ERA, and project great things going forward, but Lilly still worries me. His BABIP is has dropped nearly 100 points from where it was in the first half, down to just .204, and he’s been even luckier in August. His BABIP this month is a completely untenable .169 with a 92 percent strand rate to match, which helps explain the sudden stinginess in allowing base runners. His walks are up in the second half, and while he is mitigating that with a higher strikeout rate, those walks will become more costly if the base hits start falling in.

With Cole Hamels joining Tommy Hanson on the disabled list and the potential for contenders to start skipping starts before too long, there’s an added temptation to look at Lilly’s numbers and see effectiveness that just isn’t likely to stick around. While he may cheat regression for another start or two, September isn’t likely to be nearly as favorable to him as August has been.

Brad Peacock

Every start Stephen Strasburg makes is big news as he nears the majors again, and it’s not hard to understand why. Strasburg is in a sweet spot between a large amount of unfulfilled potential and having proven that his stuff will play at the major league level, which generates a lot of coverage. Much further down the minor league chain, Bryce Harper has the new kid shine still on him, plus has a strong personality and gets plenty of coverage because of it.

Between the Nats’ high profile minor leaguers, we have Peacock. Not as heralded as the other two, due in no small part to the fact that he was taken in the 41st round of the 2006 draft. Nevertheless, he has been absolutely fantastic in the minors, posting a K/9 of 11 and a WHIP of 0.97 between Double- and Triple-A this season.

According to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, the Nationals are going to call up Peacock when rosters expand on September 1, which makes him an interesting option for those needing to replace an injured starter. It would be nice to know exactly how he’ll fit into the rotation before picking him up, but the Nats aren’t making that clear just yet. While he hasn’t racked up the double-digit strikeout games the way he did in Double-A, Peacock still frequently sets hitters down by the bunch in Triple-A, and is likely to continue to do so even after he gets promoted again. It will be his third level of the year, so temper expectations accordingly, but given the choice between Peacock and some of the guys getting rostered out of pure necessity right now, I’d rather take my chances than be guaranteed below-average performance.

The following list is of the 2B that have had the largest changes in % owned at ESPN and the reasons behind the changes.

Risers

Darwin Barney (+25.1%) – I can not put a finger on one particular reason for the sudden jump in his ownership, but here are several ideas.

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Whether it’s beefing up for your head to head playoffs or just looking to boost yourself in a particular category as your roto season winds down, there are still guys out there on your waiver wire that can be of service to you if you dig deep enough.  We usually differentiate here between regular waiver wire pieces and deep league waiver wire pieces based on ownership percentages, but at this stage of the game, the depth of your league shouldn’t matter much.  If a guy can help, he can help.  Here’s two to consider…

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Individual league trading deadline have either already passed or are quickly approaching. That means that the only way to try improving your team for the last month is dipping into the dangerous and murky free agent pool. Maybe these two players can help you.

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There are all kinds of little injury-related news that I’d like to get to, and today feels like a good day to do just that:

– While Tommy Hanson may say his shoulder is fine, a mere nine-pitch bullpen session begs to differ. Sure, he can say that he intended to throw a short session all along, but nine pitches just feels really abrupt. Also, wouldn’t you at least throw ten instead of stopping at nine? Color me skeptical, but Hanson is still on pace to get a rehab start in this weekend. As a Hanson owner, let’s hope this latest respite heals him up enough to finish the season strong.

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Jose Tabata (Yahoo: 45 percent owned, ESPN: 39 percent owned)

This time of the season, most teams have their core set, and you’re looking to grab the hot hand off the wire. The great equalizer here is when a mid-tier player like Tabata spends an extended amount of time on the disabled list. If he had played all season, he would surely be rostered in more leagues than he is, but 50 days off can tax even the most patient owners, especially in leagues with few DL spots.

It’s been a whole week since Tabata came off the disabled list, so citing his line is almost futile because of the sample, but the fact that he has hits in all seven games in which he’s appeared — and multiple hits in four of the seven — isn’t just a bit of small sample size shenanigans.

Wrist injuries are known to linger, and while Tabata’s contusion was on his hand, there’s always some concern that injuries in that area will affect a hitter’s swing. With his seven game hitting streak, Tabata has effectively assuaged those fears. Will he hit .414/.469/.655 for the remaining six weeks of the season? Sorry, probably not, but if he hits close to his ZiPS ROS projection of .283/.363/.385, that’s certainly positive production from a wire grab this late in the season.

Tabata’s ability to help you in several categories makes him worth immediately rostering in NL-Only and probably in mixed as well, dependent, as always, on league depth. Eno Sarris noted some playing time concerns when Alex Presley rejoins the team later this month, and they’re still very much in play, but with the team having committed to Tabata long-term earlier this week and having long since been lapped in the NL Central race by the Brewers, it’s looking less likely that Tabata will lose too much time going forward.

Darwin Barney (Yahoo: 44 percent owned, ESPN: 57 percent owned)

Replacing Jimmy Rollins during his time on the DL isn’t going to be an easy task. Not only is shortstop one of those chronically shallow positions, but Stephen Drew, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes owners have probably already snapped up the best wire options. Perhaps the best way to replace Rollins is to figure out what categories he was most influential in for your team, and then target that.

Yuniesky Betancourt has 10 home runs and won’t be as big of a drain on your average as Alex Gonzalez might be. Emilio Bonifacio has six steals this month, but is mired in a 0-for-16 streak. Eduardo Nunez has four steals and isn’t quite as offensively inept as Bonifacio at the moment, but his playing time has been reduced to virtually nil with Alex Rodriguez’s return, which makes Bonifacio the better play if you need desperately speed from your SS.

The best all-around play that’s available in about 50 percent of leagues is Darwin Barney, who is technically a 2B, but has SS eligibility in most leagues. He’s having a solid month, hitting .310/.380/.408 with a home run and 2 SB. If you’re uninspired, I can’t blame you, but he’s not going to single-handedly weigh down your average, will swipe you a base or two, and may get driven in at a decent rate if the Cubs offense can stay as active as it has been so far in August. With who else is available, believe me when I say that you could do much worse.

Barney isn’t going to win you your league, but he isn’t likely to cost you a shot at the playoffs either. If he helps you tread water while waiting for an injured SS to come back, you’ve won the day. Keep an eye on the wire as well, as Reyes should be coming off the DL before too long. His owner may drop a better option back into the pool, in which case you can drop Barney and move forward with someone like Yunel Escobar.

With so many articles discussing players and fantasy strategies to help advance you in the standings this year, it’s time to throw a bone to those in keeper leagues that are out of contention in 2011 and are already thinking about what to do in 2012.  Remember the game “Would You Rather…?”  I’m sure most of you do, but if you don’t, it’s simple.  You’re given two choices — sometimes both really good and sometimes both absolutely horrific.  Either way, you are obligated to pick one over the other.  Well, this is going to be an ongoing keeper league series now in which you’re given two options of which player you’d rather keep for the following season.  Since we’re in Erik Hahmann’s regular shortstop article time slot, we’ll begin there…

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Edwin Encarnacion was signed in the off-season to a pretty club-friendly deal with the expectation that he would DH and occasionally play some first base. After the Toronto Blue Jays made a rather surprising announcement about his starting at third base based on a small sample size and his being perhaps the single greatest omission on the best shapers list, Encarnacion’s bat struggled and his defense was as his nickname advertises. And the vultures started to circle.

In April, Encarnacion had a triple-slash line of .257/.282/.365 and followed that up in May with a .236/.257/.333 line. It was the combination of the same old glove defensively and the ineptitude offensively that thrust Jose Bautista back to the hot corner, and if not for Brett Lawrie’s injured hand, Encarnacion may have found himself without much of a role at all.

What has happened since the break is a brand-new-shiny version of Encarnacion as he’s gone .328/.438/.566. Whether or not he was motivated by the prospect of shopping for a new condo I don’t know, but what’s really interesting is to look at how he is a very different hitter in 2011 than he has been in the recent past.

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