The Edwin Encarnacion Revival Project
Edwin Encarnacion was signed in the off-season to a pretty club-friendly deal with the expectation that he would DH and occasionally play some first base. After the Toronto Blue Jays made a rather surprising announcement about his starting at third base based on a small sample size and his being perhaps the single greatest omission on the best shapers list, Encarnacion’s bat struggled and his defense was as his nickname advertises. And the vultures started to circle.
In April, Encarnacion had a triple-slash line of .257/.282/.365 and followed that up in May with a .236/.257/.333 line. It was the combination of the same old glove defensively and the ineptitude offensively that thrust Jose Bautista back to the hot corner, and if not for Brett Lawrie’s injured hand, Encarnacion may have found himself without much of a role at all.
What has happened since the break is a brand-new-shiny version of Encarnacion as he’s gone .328/.438/.566. Whether or not he was motivated by the prospect of shopping for a new condo I don’t know, but what’s really interesting is to look at how he is a very different hitter in 2011 than he has been in the recent past.
On the year, Encarnacion is hitting .279/.339/.458 with a .350 wOBA, good for 8th overall among third basemen with at least 350 plate appearances, just behind the likes of Adrian Beltre, and just ahead of Evan Longoria. Since Encarnacion has a career .261/.337/.454 triple slash and a .345 wOBA, this shouldn’t be as big of a surprise as it seems like. But in this season of apparent subdued offensive excitement, Encarnacion is producing particularly well in context of his woeful start.
What’s curious is just how different he is in a couple situational settings.
In his career, Encarnacion has been a pretty average hitter in “pitchers” counts and historically a below average hitter even in favorable counts.
Not much in the way of change here in favorable counts versus his last two seasons. But in less favorable counts, there is a big change:
So while his performance is within a reasonable expectations in typical hitters counts the last several years, Encarnacion is a fundamentally different hitter in 2011 with two strikes than he has been over the last two seasons. For further comparison, looking at Encarnacion’s batting average against the 2011 AL-league average, he comes up roses:
Encarnacion is a career .193 hitter with a 2-2 count and this year he’s batting near .300. Whether this is a change in his approach or just the sun shining on his backside, I can’t tell you. Small sample size to be sure, but across the board in typical pitchers counts where he has been a very easy out, Encarnacion is either getting very lucky, or he’s simply hitting way, way better.
Another way that 2011 has demonstrated a pretty stark correction has been his success against right handed pitchers. Historically, Encarnacion has hit left handed pitchers slightly better than right handed pitchers, and over the last several seasons, he has started to really struggle versus righties. But 2011 has reversed that trend.
His career BA vs. RHP is .258 and in 2011, it’s up to .282. While he has hit righties this well before, it hasn’t been since 2007 but even then, his wRC+ was 99 versus RHP where it stands at 116 in 2011. And in addition to his average, he’s also striking out less vs. RHP:
Now, if you’re in a league that takes into consideration defensive metrics, Encarnacion is barely useable and in terms of wins above replacement, he isn’t particularly valuable as a third basemen because of his brutal glove. But in the second half, only Ryan Zimmerman has been a hotter hitter at third base and Encarnacion is probably making decisions for the Toronto brass awfully easy as the team holds a club option of $3.5 million in 2012.
Had Lawrie not broken his hand, Encarnacion may have found himself in the minors or in an entirely different organization. But this is one of the things that makes baseball such an interesting sport to follow — Encarnacion was given a window of opportunity, and he’s fundamentally turned his season around.
Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.
As a fan who’s watched quite a number of Jays games this year, it seems like Edwin’s a lot more relaxed when he doesn’t have to worry about his defensive responsibilities at 3rd. Basically the opposite of Adam Lind when it comes to fielding vs. DH. He doesn’t seem nearly as uptight when he gets behind in the count and actually seems to have a nicer swing. Last year, and early this year, it seemed like as soon as he was behind he’d start to tense up and swing for the fences. This lead to a lot of swing throughs (I know it’s not a word) and, subsequently, Ks.
So to answer your comment “Whether or not he was motivated by the prospect of shopping for a new condo I don’t know” from a fan’s perspective, I don’t know either, but it definitely seems to be a mental thing as the more he relaxes, the better player he becomes. And he seems pretty relaxed these days.
well, his swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career at 7%, but until we can hook hitters up to some kind of pulse detector, it’s going to be tough to correlate performance with how relaxed they are. But I’ll certainly take your word for it.
As 3B: 223/.289/.388
As DH: .322/.384/.508
DH+E5=Zen
Question: In 2012, the Jays could easily have 3 starting fantasy 3B-men in Bautista, E5 and Lawrie. Has that happened before (excluding OF)?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrTK9lvkCQg
I actually wondered if someone would post that. Maybe that’s what inspired Edwin to start hitting.
I originally found it in the comments section of Drunk Jays Fans. My life hasn’t been the same since.
I know a guy who works at the Rogers Centre. He got that video to marketing, and, I’m told, eventually to Encarnacion. We had dreams of it being played at the Dome, after Eddie hit a home run, or something. But it never happened. I guess he shot the idea down.
we should just all assume that it was first viewed during the All Star Break. A signed jersey ought to be on the way to Jack Black.
so his results are career normal, but his pattern of getting those results is different, so he is different. I do not buy this argument.
If I put a 100 ping pong balls in a bag with 26 being white and 74 being red. I shake the bag to mix them up, then I draw out balls and record the results. I could draw 15 white balls and 5 red balls in the first 20 balls, but I will still only draw 26 white balls once I draw them all.
If I do this experiment again and draw only 20 red balls in the first 20, it still does not change the fact that once I draw out all 100 balls 26 will be white.
The pattern of the balls being drawn is irrelevant since the final results stay the same.
Now if white balls = hits and red balls = outs.
In example 1 where I get 15 hits in the first 20 at bats my peripheral stats are going to look awe some. I would have few swinging strikes; Appear to have a great eye; I would be driving the ball; etc. Yet the final results are the same as in example 2.
Thanks KMITGN – I suppose I should have stated the obvious, but had he stayed career-normal in his strikeout rates, vs. RHP, in pitchers counts, etc. — where would he be? I get it though… grandpappy used to have a saying about all the ways you can skin a cat…
Your example presupposes that there are always only going to be 26 white balls in E5’s “bag,” which is exactly what MB is implying might not be the case anymore. Obviously if you presuppose a player’s skills stayed the same before you look at his results, you’re going to find confirmation bias.