As we all know, power is once again down across the league. This season has seen the lowest home runs per game total and ISO since 1993, the lowest SLG since 1992 and is tied with 1995 for the fewest doubles per game. Let’s take a look at the top five decliners in ISO to determine if there is any hope for a rebound in 2012. Given the lower level of offense, I am not suggesting a full rebound, but a context-relative one.
Welcome to another game of Keeper League Would You Rather. While first base is widely considered the deepest position in fantasy baseball, it is also has a high percentage of players protected, given the fact that most of your mashers are found here. Still, dynasty leagues, AL or NL-only, and deeper mixed leagues have numerous owners looking for cheaper alternatives at the position with the hopes that an inexpensive youngster will eventually provide big time power at a bargain rate. So let’s look at two of the more popular options from the youth bin…
The Pittsburgh Pirates had a rather nice problem on their hands headed into Spring training as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek had spectacular 2010 campaigns and both arguably deserved the right to close out games. This battle presented fantasy managers with the proverbial high risk/low cost option for late-round-save-sniping and in many leagues, both players were drafted as the situation played out. Although Hanrahan was a disaster in Spring with an ERA near seven and giving up several gopher balls, he no doubt bought Meek a steak dinner when Clint Hurdle handed him closer duties. What has happened since has been a pretty fantastic season for Joel Hanrahan.
I’ll be here around 12:30 pm eastern for all of your fantasy needs and desires. Dirty!
Michael Morse is having his best season ever with 21 home runs and a 0.319 average. The 29 year old has filled in the void left at 1B when Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox this off season. I will look to see if his 2011 season can be duplicated in 2012.
Morse’s has hit as many home runs this season, 21, than in his previous 6 seasons. In his career, he has a 15.3% FR/FB ratio. This season it has increased a bit to 18.4%. In 2010, his average home run and fly ball distance was 300ft. In 2011 it has increased to 307ft.
Besides more fly balls becoming a home run, his OF FB% is up from 29.3% to 31.8%. Not much of a jump, but it is a jump. Morse’s home run increase seems sustainable into next season.
Batting average is the other stat that is making Michael valuable. His 0.319 AVG is 17 points higher then his career average of 0.302. The increase is not caused by more contact. His career K% is 21.1%. His 2011 value is 21.1%.
His BABIP this season is 0.367. This value seems high, but it isn’t that far off his career value is 0.355. Using slash12’s xBABIP formula, his 2011 xBABIP of 0.325 and his career xBABIP would be 0.326. Both of these values are below the actual values, but are still respectable. In 2010, he had a 0.330 BABIP and a 0.289 AVG to go with it.
For 2012, I could see his home run total between 20 and 30 and a 0.270 to 0.320 AVG. With those numbers, he should be drafted and started in all leagues. The stats are not ideal for a fantasy 1B in a shallow league, but Morse should be qualified in the OF in most leagues (27 LF starts this season). He will be a decent OF and can flex to 1B when an injury occurs or a player has a day off.
Michael Morse looks like he can keep up the 2011 production into 2012, with the possible exception of a drop in AVG. He adds great roster flexibility since he is qualified at 1B and OF. There is no reason to avoid him on draft day next year.
Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 22.
Mark Buehrle – In his last 19 starts, Buehrle has gone 9-3 with a 2.62 ERA. Overall, his ERA is about 0.75 less than his FIP and nearly a full run worse than his xFIP. But Buehrle has out-performed both FIP numbers in seven of the previous nine seasons, so it’s not a huge surprise. The estimators have a tough time with Buehrle because his strikeout rate is so low. But he counters with an excellent walk rate and better than average HR and LOB rates. He has a home start against MIN and he has a 0.39 ERA in three starts against the Twins this year. He’s also got a game at DET and lifetime he has a 3.37 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP in 123 IP at Comerica Park. Keep Buehrle in the lineup this week.
Brett Cecil – The one weakness for Cecil is his gopher ball tendencies. He’s allowed 14 HR in 91.1 IP this year and all 14 HR have come against RHB. This week Cecil squares off against BAL and NYY, with both starts on the road. The Yankees lead the AL with 98 HR at home and the Orioles are tied for third with 82 HR. The Yankees have power up and down the lineup while the Orioles feature three RHB – Hardy, Jones and Reynolds – with over 20 HR apiece. Give Cecil the week off.
Wade Davis – The year started off miserably for Davis as he adopted more of a pitch-to-contact approach which resulted in an inflated ERA. After 18 starts he had a 4.47 ERA and a 4.13 K/9. But in his last five starts, Davis has fanned 28 in 36 IP for a 7.00 K/9 and he has a 3.75 ERA. The Rays are 5-0 in that stretch, although Davis has just one win to show for it. If he can keep up the solid pitching, the wins will come so make sure you have him active this week.
Doug Fister – Last year Fister was a low-end matchup guy, one you could put into the lineup when he had home starts. He had a strong 3.61 ERA and 1.139 WHIP at Safeco but a 5.06 ERA and a 1.551 WHIP in road games. This year he’s been good both at home and on the road. There was concern about how he would do after the trade to Detroit, but in four starts with the Tigers, Fister has produced two strong outings, both at home. This week he has two home starts, with games against the Royals and White Sox, two teams below .500 and who are just middle of the pack versus LH starters. Get Fister active this week.
Hiroki Kuroda – Since coming to this country in 2008, Kuroda has been a very reliable pitcher for both the Dodgers and fantasy owners. Despite strong overall numbers, he’s never been a big asset in Wins and this year was even worse than normal as he had a 6-13 record at the end of July despite a 3.11 ERA. But fortune has smiled upon Kuroda in August, as he has a 4-1 record this month. He has a normal .305 BABIP in August yet has a 2.16 ERA in 33.1 IP. This week he has a home start against SD and a road start in ATL. He has more wins against the Padres (7) than any team in the majors. His start against the Braves is a day game and Kuroda has a 2.58 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP with a 4.0 K/BB rate in day games this season. Make sure he is in the lineup this week.
Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 22 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.
Lincecum, Sabathia, Kershaw, Romero, Marcum, Hellickson, D.Hudson, Scherezer, J. Garcia, Worley, Latos, W. Rodriguez, Hamels, Tomlin, Harrison, Cahill, Lackey, Harden, Lowe, Morton, Vazquez, Bailey, Arroyo, Hochevar, Pelfrey, Guthrie, White, L. Hernandez, Beavan, Wells, Pineiro, Francis, Slowey, Huff, Williams, Ohlendorf, Volstad.
Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.
Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 20 pitchers and how they fared.
Billingsley – Advised to sit. 12 Ks, 3.07 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, 14.2 IP, 5 ER
Burnett – Advised to start. W, 3 Ks, 12.27 ERA, 2.591 WHIP, 7.1 IP, 10 ER
Gonzalez – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 3.21 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 14 IP, 5 ER
Leake – Advised to start. 10 Ks, 6.75 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 12 IP, 9 ER
Luebke – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 1.50 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 12 IP, 2 ER
Brandon Allen (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent owned)
Allen’s last two games in New York seem to paint a pretty accurate picture of him as a player. Tuesday night, he crushed two home runs over 400 feet; Wednesday, he struck out three times as part of an 0-for-4 night, seeing a total of 15 pitches.
Though some may call him a puffed-up product of the PCL, Allen’s minor league power numbers are far more than a league-induced mirage. Unless they’ve recently allowed metal bats in the PCL, a .956 OPS over parts of three seasons is still notable, especially since Allen pairs his power with an above-average walk rate, something he has continued to post during his minimal time in the majors. A little like Carlos Pena, Allen is a much better option in OBP leagues than he is in traditional AVG leagues, and a little like Mark Reynolds, if your league penalizes for strikeouts, it’s going to be hard for him to show enough power to overcome that handicap.
I’d like to see a little more of Allen in the AL before I recommend him across the board, but if you can live with him in a platoon situation, that’s a different matter. For his career, Allen has beaten righties like a rented mule, hitting .272/.365/.543 off of them, with 22 of his 44 career hits going for extra bases. Lefties still have the upper hand against Allen, he’s yet to hit a home run off of one, and his overall line is…execrable. .132/.246/.170 to be precise.
If you’re looking for Allen to revitalize a sagging outfield on his own, you’re in for a roller coaster ride. If you can pair him with someone like former teammate Chris Young, who approaches lefties with malice in his heart, that’s a solid solution.
Peter Boujos (Yahoo: 40 percent owned, ESPN: 60 percent owned)
While Allen, Mike Carp, and Casper Wells have all hit well of late out west, it’s hard to imagine anyone being hotter than Bourjos, who has been on quite a tear of late. Prior to Wednesday’s game, Boujos had hit .500/.500/.917 for the previous 7 days, and while he took an 0-for-4, his monthly line is still .359/.405/.667 with a season-best 5 HR.
Like Allen, Bourjos does have a pronounced platoon split, .336/.377/.570 against lefties versus .256/.313/.385 against righties, but unlike Allen, he’s worth playing against both port- and starboard-siders. While the unexpected power outburst is a pleasant surprise, owners can expect a more consistent contribution from Bourjos in the SB column. Unsurprisingly, Bourjos has better luck stealing off of right-handed pitchers — 12 SB in 15 attempts against righties compared to 5 SB in eight attempts against lefties — plus, while he slugs better against lefties, he has actually hit five of his eight home runs off of righties.
Typically, a .250-point OPS split is wide enough to merit a platoon partner if your bench can suffer the strain. However, with Bourjos, better to be thankful that he provides value against any type of pitcher than to risk losing out on his SB potential just because of a lower average. Between the two, I’d rather have Bourjos unless you’ve got a platoon partner to join with Allen. If you’re desperate for power, Allen’s more likely to provide it on anything resembling a consistent basis, but Boujos is a much stronger all-around option.
One of the primary reasons that people give as to why they opt not to play fantasy baseball but are the first to form a fantasy football league is the sheer length of the season. Six months is apparently two months too long for them. However, those of us that are able to cope with the time frame know the real answer; the amount of work it takes to, not only prep for the season, but to stay active and alert all season long can be a testament to one’s patience, work ethic and mental endurance.
This week’s installment covers a banished first baseman, one of baseball’s top prospects and yet another third base option in Denver.
Who doesn’t like playing games? The most common baseball article game I have seen is the Player A and Player B game. And guess what…that is exactly what I am going to play today, with the addition of Player C, who will also be joining the party. So put on your thinking caps, this one is going to be an exciting one, and it stars three American League starters named A, B and C!