Archive for August, 2011

Effects of Batting 8th in the NL

The stats of the 8th hitter in the National League can be deceiving because of the pitcher hitting after them. Teams pitch around the 8th hitter. They are not allowed to make an out with the pitcher hitting, so are rarely given the green light to steal a base. I have gone through and looked at how the stats of the 8th hitter change when they are moved to another position in the lineup. Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: Tuesday, August 30th, 2011

– Dog bites man, taxes are collected, and Nelson Cruz has a hamstring problem. Cruz’s season hasn’t been what fantasy owners were hoping for — especially in OBP or OPS leagues — but at least he’s already made it through 113 games. Cruz is a good example of the fantasy replacement level principle: when you draft him, you get his usually outstanding production for 100 games, and then replacement level production when he goes on the DL. It’s not like you don’t get to have someone take his spot in the lineup after he gets hurt. Certain owners take advantage of this every year, draft Cruz a round or two early while understanding they won’t be getting a full season from him. Cruz isn’t a youngster anymore, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he slipped a bit in drafts next season. If he does, someone’s probably getting a good deal.

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Davis, Smoak, Drew, Garcia, Carrasco: DL Returnees

As usual on Mondays, I will look at a few players coming off the DL that are owned in less than 50% of ESPN’s leagues.

Rajai Davis (hamstring, 37% owned): In Toronto, center fielders Colby Rasmus (wrist, 69% owned) and Davis are both on the DL right now. They should come off the DL in a couple weeks.

Toronto will play Rasmus regularly if he is available, limiting Davis’ value. Besides not getting regular playing time, Davis is coming off a hamstring injury. Toronto may have him take it easy for the rest of the year, thereby limiting his steals. In the mean time, Mike McCoy is getting the starts in CF.

Justin Smoak (nose, 19%): Justin looks to take back the Mariner’s 1B position from Mike Carp’s when he returns in around 2 weeks. Smoak’s fantasy value is being driven down by his his 20.7% K%. The K%, to go along with his low BABIP (0.253), is putting his AVG (0.231) under attack. With a below average AVG and league average home run ability (10.2 HR/FB), he will not cut it as a MLB 1B. He doesn’t look like a league keeper and hopefully your team has found a better solution for 2011 at 1B.

J.D. Drew (shoulder, 2%): Drew has played the most games in RF for the Red Sox this season. He is currently in the minors rehabbing and looks to join the Red Sox on Thursday when the rosters expand. I have not been able to find Boston’s plans for him, but it looks like there is not an everyday position for him when he returns. Josh Reddick has 2 more home runs in 20 less PA than Drew. Also he has a 0.283 AVG vice Drew’s 0.219. If I have a DL position available, I may pick him up and see how the situation unravels once he returns. If he starts, keep him. If he is just a bench player, ditch him.

Freddy Garcia (finger, 18% owned) – Garcia is a nice play for a team desperate for a few extra Wins. Freddy comes off the DL tonight (Monday) against Baltimore. While his peripheral stats aren’t the greatest, he is a good enough pitcher to keep the Yankees in a game to pick up a few Wins.

Carlos Carrasco (elbow, 5% owned) – Carrasco looks to be coming back in a week or two. If the Indians are still in the playoff picture will determine if he pitches this season. If they are still breathing, he could be used for a couple of starts. If not, he will likely be shut down for the season.


Andre Ethier’s Knee, Future

Andre Ethier usually launches bombs, but over the weekend he dropped a bomb on the Dodgers-related news media. The 29-year-old outfielder admitted that he’s been playing with pain in his right knee all year. General Manager Ned Colletti was having none of it, responding with an incredulous question: “What am I supposed to be concerned about?” This is a man who knows how to handle personnel in the media. Give him a better team to destroy, right?

Snark aside, we know that many keeper and dynasty teams are looking to next season and beyond. Therefore it makes sense to evaluate Ethier’s year, future with the Dodgers, and long-term fantasy prognosis with this knee injury in mind. In other words, does this news kill his keeper value?

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Fowler & Weeks: Waiver Wire

The fantasy season is coming down to the wire, so let’s focus on two waiver guys that will help boost your stolen base total down the stretch…

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What About Alex Avila for Next Season?

Back around the end of May, after a torrid start to the season, I posed the simple question about Tigers catcher Alex Avilais he for real?  At the time of the piece, we looked at his .333 BABIP, his 30.0 K%, his gaudy 17.4% HR/FB and not only wondered if his .250 ISO was the real deal, but if these numbers were indicating an over-achiever who was headed for a significant drop.  Well, after watching him the rest of the way and looking at his current .304-17-65, it might finally be safe to say that he is, in fact, for real.  Now the question is, what do we do with him next season?

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Waiver Wire: Ross Detwiler

Fantasy owners, we’ve reached the home stretch; the time where September call-ups can make a difference in the playoffs or pay dividends towards the future. Even though some of the top prospects have already been called up, there are some other interesting players worth taking a flier on as the season comes to a conclusion. While there’s no guarantee these players will push your team over the edge; taking a shot on certain players can better educate a fantasy owner for next season as well — when the player might be given a larger role. Ross Detwiler is the type of player that fits this description, and he’s finally getting a chance to show what he can do at the major league level.
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A Look at the Top 5 ISO Surgers

On Saturday, I took a look at the top five decliners in isolated slugging percentage and tried to determine whether any would rebound in 2012. Today I check in on the top five surgers in the metric. Let’s see if any have a chance to hold onto their power gains next season.

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Roto Riteup: Monday, August 29th, 2011

Anibal Sanchez’s season has been a strange one. He started the year looking like an ace, but he has really struggled these past two months. Here is a look at some of his numbers this year and what it could mean for next season:

– Sanchez’s 2011 ERA currently sits at 4.01, and his WHIP is 1.29. His fielding independent numbers suggest he should have an ERA somewhere around 3.30.

– In Sanchez’s first 16 starts, his ERA was a crisp 2.82, and he had 107 strikeouts in 105 innings of work. He didn’t have problems with walks or the home run ball, either, as he walked a mere 29 batters and only allowed 8 homers.

– In Sanchez’s last 10 starts, his ERA is a horrendous 6.33, and he has allowed 11 homers in just 54 innings of work. A poor BABIP has also contributed to his problems, but homers have been his biggest issue of the second half.

– I’m not quite sure what has plagued Anibal in the second half, but whatever it is, I’m worried about what he’ll look like next season. Keep an eye on Anibal’s home run rate over the next month; if it lowers itself, then the righty may turn out to be a nice pick in the later rounds of your draft next year. If he continues to give up dingers, then he’s going to sit on the waiver wire for a long, long time.

Now, on to the rest of today’s Riteup:

– After finally getting a extended chance to show what he can do in the big leagues, Michael Brantley’s season is over thanks to a wrist injury. Brantley started the season on a high note, hitting around .300 for the first month of 2011 and walking quite often. But, as the season wore on, Brantley turned back in to his normal self, and he ended up hitting just .266 with seven homers and 13 steals. Someone with Brantley’s raw skills and batted ball profile should probably post a BABIP higher than the .303 mark the 24-year old finished with, so we could easily see the outfielder’s batting average rise next season. A .275/10/20 season from Brantley in 2012 seems perfectly reasonable to me, so adjust your keeper lenses accordingly.

A Pitcher for Today: David Huff vs OAK
Huff has been serviceable in four starts this year, and today is quite a bad day for decent starters with low ownership rates. As long as they don’t hit the ball out of the ballpark, Huff could end up surrendering only a run or two against the A’s. It seems like I’m saying this more frequently recently, but this would be a good day to skip streaming.

A Pitcher For Tomorrow: Zach Stewart vs MIN
Stewart’s line from his last start doesn’t look pretty, but I think the rookie pulls out a win here. It may involve him giving up four runs, however, but Stewart is your guy if you’re looking for a “w.”

PickSix Lock of the Day: Chase Utley ($32) at CIN (Homer Bailey)
Getting a talent like Utley against a homer prone pitcher in a small ballpark. Yeah, I think I’ll take my chances on that one.
Prediction: 1-3, BB, HR; 15 points
Last Week’s Locks: 4 players, $52, 37.4 pts
All Past Locks: 16 players, $241.50, 103.9 pts


Week 22 Two-Start Pitchers Update

Here is the latest update to Week 22 two-start pitchers. There’s more changes than normal because of all of the rescheduling necessitated by Hurricane Irene. And there will undoubtedly be even more changes as the week progresses.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Halladay, Jurrjens, Vogelsong, Nolasco, A. Sanchez, Gee, McCarthy, F. Garcia, Simon
.
Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Sabathia, J. Garcia, Worley, Tomlin, Harrison, Fister, Harden, Lowe, Vazquez, Pelfrey, Guthrie, Volstad.

Let’s take a look at Anibal Sanchez. From the second week in May until the end of June, Sanchez was a fantasy star, as he went 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA, a 0.920 WHIP and 75 Ks in 70.2 IP. He put up this impressive line with a .280 BABIP, so it seemed likely that he would continue to put up good numbers, even after this lights-out streak was over.

But in his last 10 starts, Sanchez is 1-5 with a 6.33 ERA. The strikeout numbers are still good, as he has 56 Ks in 54 IP. But the BABIP is ugly at .369 and he’s surrendered 11 HR in 54 IP. Sanchez has allowed 62 fly balls in those 10 starts and has a 17.74 HR/FB ratio. Lifetime, he has an 8.1 HR/FB mark, so clearly something is out of whack.

Sanchez is really struggling with his slider, typically his best pitch. In 2010, Sanchez had a 12.0 wSL, easily his most effective offering. This year it sits at a 3.8 wSL, still a good mark but very deceiving. Here’s how it breaks down by month:

April: 2.2
May: 5.1
June: 2.4
July: -4.4
August: -1.5

After being on the first page of the leaderboard with results from his slider in each of the first three months of the season, Sanchez had the second-worst results of any qualified starter in July and is again below average with his slider so far in August.

Velocity has not been an issue for Sanchez, as he hit 94.6 in his last start and averaged 91.5 – right at his seasonal average. There’s been no talk about any injury but that’s always a possibility for someone who relies heavily on the slider.

For whatever reason, the results have not been there for Sanchez for two months now. He still has some value because of his strikeouts, but Sanchez is no longer a must-start fantasy pitcher. This week in his two starts, he has a matchup with the Phillies, who are third in the NL in HR since the All-Star break, not something that a pitcher who has allowed 11 HR in his last 54 IP should relish.