Archive for July, 2011

Promoted: Mike Trout

So, 19 year-old Mike Trout was promoted last night. No, not to Triple-A, to the majors, thanks to an injury to Peter Bourjos. Yeah, I’m kind of in shock too. The Triple-A level isn’t the prospect haven it once was. Many teams use it mainly as a taxi service for minor league depth players. Sure, there are still star prospects there, but Double-A is the true breeding ground for the uber talented. Trout was treating Double-A like his personal playground, hitting .330/.422/.544 with 9 HR and 28 SB in 336 PA.

Sam Miller of the Orange County Register points out that Trout is one of only a handful of teenager position players to be called up since 1985. The list is impressive, though it omits B.J. Upton for some reason. Sam’s point is that if you’re being called up as a teenager you’re probably going to be a star, though not right away as basically everyone on the list hit terribly when called up. He knows the Angels better than I and makes good points about the team not calling Trout up just for the fun of it due to service time and development issues. With Bourjos out they think Trout is better than any alternative they have, and they’re right. He plays excellent defense and is faster than the Flash. But what does this mean for fantasy owners?

If you’re in a standard 10 team mixed league there’s little reason to add Trout. It’s unknown how long Bourjos will be out; with the All-Star break coming he may not need any DL time. If you’re in a keeper league and he just now became available in your player pool sabotage whoever you must to grab him as early as possible. He’s unlikely to help much this season and may not even be with the team in two weeks. He’s the shiny new toy du jour. Be tepid in your excitement.


RotoGraphs Chat – 7/8/11

Howard Bender will be by at 1:15 but you can leave your questions starting now! Happy Friday.


Deep Waiver Wire Draft Results and My Picks

The other day 4 of us writers did a draft of players owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. We drafted a C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP and here were the results:

Draft Position Name Owner
1 Cody Ross Bender
2 Danny Valencia Catania
3 Chris Heisey Sarris
4 John Buck Zimmerman
5 Jonny Gomes Zimmerman
6 Jarrod Saltalamacchia Sarris
7 Wilson Ramos Catania
8 Chris Johnson Bender
9 Chris Getz Bender
10 Will Venable Catania
11 Jason Bartlett Sarris
12 Aaron Crow Zimmerman
13 Scott Sizemore Zimmerman
14 Javy Guerra Sarris
15 Doug Fister Catania
16 Nick Hundley Bender
17 Koji Uehara Bender
18 Jason Kipnis Catania
19 Rubby De La Rosa Sarris
20 Brandon McCarthy Zimmerman
21 Casey Blake Zimmerman
22 Matt LaPorta Sarris
23 Cory Luebke Catania
24 Barry Zito Bender

Besides the entire draft results, here is a quick explanation of my 6 picks

John Buck (C)– The choice of Buck was pretty easy. He is a catcher with home run ability. This season so far he has hit 8 HRs in 291 PA with the Marlins and looks to still get plenty more PA. These numbers are just a bit below his career average where he has averaged 1 home run for every 30 PA. His average and SB are non-existent, but what is to be expected from a catcher owned in less than 10% of all leagues. I will gladdly take the home runs, especially from a catcher.

Jonny Gomes (OF) – I figured that I may attempt at locking up home runs with Gomes to go along with Buck. He looks to be on pace for 20 home runs and maybe even get 10 SB. His average is a drag, but he generally gets consistent playing time so he will have chances to accumulate Runs and RBIs to go along with the HRs.

Aaron Crow (RP)– I took the Royals All-Star selection in the hope that Soria will become either injured or traded. Crow then looks to be in line to move into the closer role where he will begin picking up saves. There are other relievers with better rate stats, but I am taking a chance on saves with this pick.

Scott Sizemore (MI)– This is probably the safest move I took. Usually, I would aim for a player that excels at one area, but with Scott he is just an all around below average player. He will get at bats and not destroy or will any category. Boring.

Casey Blake (CI) – I need a CI and the pickings were slim. I am pretty much hoping that he can get back to hitting some home runs. Also, he could put up some OK counting stats (Runs and RBIs).

Brandon McCarthy (SP) – I waited on SP which seemed like the deepest category. I about went with Danny Duffy, but decided against double homer-ism after drafting Crow and instead went with McCarthy. I will take the 3.5 K/BB and hope the A’s offense can show up once or twice during the rest of the season.


Biggest Busts: C & 1B (ottoneu lwts leagues)

Using the same model described in my looks at surprise players, here are the biggest busts thus far in ottoneu lwts leagues at catcher and first base.  Almost by definition, these guys are all expected to regress in a positive direction going forward.  But for each position I’ll give you “my pick,” the player that I think is most likely to turn it around in the second half and produce at their price tag.

Catcher

Joe Mauer, MIN
wOBA: .253
Avg. Cost $39.72
Performed As: -$7
Value: -$47
Buster Posey, SFG
wOBA: .340
Avg. Cost: $31.24
Performed As: $7
Value: -$24
Jeff Mathis, LAA
wOBA: .225
Avg. Cost: $4.67
Performed As: -$15
Value: -$20

My Pick: Joe Mauer

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2011 First Base Rankings: July

First base was fantasy’s deepest position coming into the season, and somehow it seems like it’s gotten even deeper in the first half. Here are last month’s rankings, which can take you back to previous rankings as well. The primary factors here are current performance and expected future performance, as always.

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Kicking Rocks: Re-Visiting “Don’t Chase the Ace”

Back on April 21st, I wrote a Kicking Rocks piece entitled, “Don’t Chase the Ace” in which I lamented going pitching heavy in my draft.  I was disgruntled with the fact that my offense was anemic while I continued to watch my ratios explode with each and every start from my supposed stable of high quality aces.  While there were several of you that felt my pain, there were also many of you that criticized me for my concerns so early on in the season.  I was then asked to re-visit this 3 months into the season, so as we get ready to head into the All Star Break, here we go… Read the rest of this entry »


Kyle Seager: Mining the Minors

Late Wednesday night, the Mariners called up Kyle Seager. In a related story, this edition of Mining the Minors got much more interesting just before midnight.

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My Deep League Waiver Wire Draft

You’ve heard about Howard Bender’s draft. And you’ll hear about Jason Catania’s draft and Jeff Zimmerman’s draft. Because we all got together and decided to pick six, deep league style. Our CI, MI, OF, C, SP and RP all had to come from a pool of players that was owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Here are my picks and why. In the order I drafted. I had the third pick of four.

Chris Heisey
A disclaimer about deep leagues and waiver wires: One thing you want are live bodies with some upside. It’s the usual caveat. So Heisey has flaws — he’s now struck out in 18.2% of his at-bats in his first 396 plate appearances, so he might have that flaw. Then again, his minor league rates were closer to 20% most years. He could improve in that category. His BABIP is fine (.308) and though his current ISO (.209) would rank high in his minor-league work, it would still fit. And he’s got a .192 ISO so far in the majors. He stole 27 bases against two caught-stealings in High-A, and had very good success rates all along. So he has good speed. And power. And could improve his strikeout rate. And is battling for playing time with a guy with a .245 career batting average and a strikeout rate over 33%. Yes please.

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Updated AL Starting Pitcher Rankings

It’s nearly All-Star break time and my fantasy team is running out of time to remember how to hit. Since offense is crazy again this year, my brain is hurting trying to figure out these wacky hitter seasons. So, let’s talk about pitching…American League starting pitching of course. Last month’s rankings for your enjoyment. Oh, and yes, I did realize I have no fallers in the rankings. Not sure how that happened, but it is mostly because any fallers were only a couple of spots within a tier and did not warrant a shiny down arrow.

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Harden and McCarthy: Returning From DL

This past weekend, two pitchers for the A’s, Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, returned to the team after stints on the DL. Here is a look at how each pitcher performed and what to expect from them over the rest of the season.

Rich Harden (9.4% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) – Rich made his 2011 debut on Saturday by striking out 6 and not walking anyone in 6 IP.

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