The catcher position is generally perceived as one of the weakest positions in fantasy baseball. If you missed out on the elite catching prospects in your draft (Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, etc), you more than likely waited to find bargains at the catcher position. Thankfully, some catchers have gotten out to hot starts this season, making your life easier if you are playing the waiver wire. Ryan Hanigan and Alex Avila fit the mold perfectly, as both have low ownership rates despite their strong starts. It’s only been one week, but let’s take a look at how these players should perform going forward.
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The SwStk% metric is one of my favorites on FanGraphs. We would expect the statistic to be a good proxy for a pitcher’s raw stuff, as a swinging strike is the ultimate pitch result. Therefore, it should correlate highly with strikeout rate. And intuitively, it does. From 2001-2010 using a sample size of 59 pitchers, SwStk% had a 0.87 correlation with K/9. It is not higher because luck still plays a role, and K/9 includes called strikes which obviously SwStk% does not. So now that we know SwStk% matches up with K/9 quite well, I like to rank pitchers by each to determine who might have some hidden strikeout rate upside or downside.

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I’ll be the third base guy throughout the season, and today I want to highlight a few situations worth monitoring at the hot corner.

Pablo Sandoval

It’s probably a good thing that Sandoval is off to a solid start, because there were some people mumbling “platoon” in the Bay Area, evidenced by his hitting 8th in the order versus one lefty and sitting against another.  Against righties this year, he has hit 4th, 5th, and 6th, so Bruce Bochy is still trying to iron out exactly what he wants to do with him. That Bochy would put him down in front of the pitchers spot in the order when lefties are on the mound is a little bit odd as his career splits aren’t eye-popping in terms of production:

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I play in two points leagues, both of which use lwts-style scoring (although what follows applies to most other points systems).  They differ in format, however: one is a head to head points league with weekly lineups (my yahoo league), while the other is a more traditional points league with game and innings caps but daily transactions (my ottoneu league).

One of the biggest differences between the two systems is what the rule differences mean for reliever value.  In a head to head points league, it’s all about point accumulation.  And in my league’s scoring system, like in many points systems, a major key to generating the most points in a season is playing time, i.e. innings.  Because you can only set lineups once per week, this means that starters who have RP eligibility are tremendously valuable.  As an example, here are the top 11 pitchers who had RP eligibility in Yahoo last season, based on total FanGraphs Points:

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Two starters and an outfielder for your team before the weekend begins…

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“Eighty percent of success is showing up.”
–Woody Allen

That sentiment——if not the exact percentage attached to it——holds true for fantasy baseball. Think about it: The most talented prospect in the world can’t do anything to help your fantasy team if there’s no chance he’ll sniff a big-league job any time soon. Conversely, a less-talented, lesser-known minor leaguer on the verge of a call-up has the opportunity to get his foot in the door and contribute sooner rather than later, which can lead to the best type of success: the unexpected kind. Just because the production isn’t projected to be as rewarding doesn’t mean it can’t be, which is why these players need to be monitored. Because in the deepest of deep leagues, opportunity only knocks so often.

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Now that fantasy leagues are back on a 7-day week schedule, it’s time to take our first look at upcoming two-start pitchers. Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 2.

Mark Buehrle – After opening the season with two poor road outings, Buehrle has home starts this week against the A’s and Angels. From 2008-10, the veteran Buehrle has been 26-14 at home compared to 15-21 on the road. Earlier in his career, Buehrle was all over the map as far as performance. However, he has become a reliable hurler the past few years. While he may not strike out more batters for you than a middle reliever this week, he should post respectable ERA and WHIP numbers and has a chance to post two Wins. Make sure he is active in your lineup.

Kevin Correia – After posting a 5.40 ERA in 2010 while playing half his games in Petco Park, few had high hopes for Correia this year in Pittsburgh. But he starts the year off with Wins in his first two games and a nifty 1.38 ERA, putting him on the radar of fantasy players everywhere. But don’t be fooled. Correia has a 4.86 xFIP, much closer to his 4.45 career rate in the category. With games against the Brewers and Reds, look for Correia’s ERA to balloon and do not add or start him if you can help it.

Ryan Dempster – When you drafted Dempster you imagined him as a guy you put in the lineup each week and did not worry about his roster spot. And generally that’s true, although you might want to investigate alternatives this week. Dempster has road starts in Colorado and in Houston, two parks which are hitter-friendly and in which he has struggled recently. Lifetime Dempster is 3-7 in Minute Maid Park and he is 1-3 with an 11.35 ERA in Coors Field. Combined with his rough start to open the season, it looks like a good time to give him a week off if you can.

Kyle McClellan – After 202 appearances in the majors as a reliever, McClellan made his first start this year, as he moved into the rotation to take over for the injured Adam Wainwright. McClellan showed strong peripherals in his time in the bullpen and carried that over to his first start, as he allowed six hits in six innings while walking one and fanning seven. The matchups are not overly favorable to McClellan this week, with road starts in Arizona and Los Angeles. But both of those clubs have struggled some offensively out of the gate and are in the bottom half of the league in runs per game. He’s a good waiver pickup if he is available in your league and if he is already on your roster you should consider giving him a start this week.

Esmil Rogers – During his brief time in the majors, Rogers has put up some ugly ERAs but has gotten strikeouts and ground balls, two things which bode well for his future performance. He continued with that combination in his first outing of 2011, with 7 Ks and 11 ground balls in 7.1 IP. Rogers was hurt last year in the majors due to his .385 BABIP, a figure that should heavily regresses in 2011. Rogers has decent control and his high ground ball rates help keep his gopher ball totals low. Combined with the strikeouts that is a pretty nice package for a guy likely on the waiver wire. Go out and grab him and do not be afraid to start him this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 2 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Verlander, Kershaw, Carpenter, Haren, Hanson, Billingsley, Marcum, Volquez, Myers, Hellickson, Stauffer, Niese, Braden, Pelfrey, Latos, Blanton, Hammel, L. Hernandez, Volstad, Enright, Figueroa.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

With only a week of baseball in the books, it is time for small sample size analysis! Here are some thoughts on various AL starting pitchers.

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First base is fantasy’s deepest position, but even the surest of sure bets can fall victim to slumps. Albert Pujols has a .242 wOBA. Prince Fielder has a .000 ISO. Dan Johnson has an .067 BABIP. Okay, maybe that last guy doesn’t fit so well, but the point is that this kind of stuff happens. When those slumps happen at the start of the season, they’re even more noticeable. So if you’re dealing with a slow start or say, Adam Dunn‘s appendectomy or Carlos Pena’s sprained thumb, here’s three players that could help you weather the storm until your regulars start producing…

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