Low Ownership Hot Starters At First

First base is fantasy’s deepest position, but even the surest of sure bets can fall victim to slumps. Albert Pujols has a .242 wOBA. Prince Fielder has a .000 ISO. Dan Johnson has an .067 BABIP. Okay, maybe that last guy doesn’t fit so well, but the point is that this kind of stuff happens. When those slumps happen at the start of the season, they’re even more noticeable. So if you’re dealing with a slow start or say, Adam Dunn‘s appendectomy or Carlos Pena’s sprained thumb, here’s three players that could help you weather the storm until your regulars start producing…

Mitch Moreland | Texas | 20% owned

He’s not playing against lefties, but Moreland’s performed well in the early going. He’s 4-for-13 with two doubles and a triple so far (.308/.357/.615), benefiting from hitting near the bottom of what is currently the league’s best offense. Unlike some of the other guys in the post, Moreland has some long-term fantasy potential, at least with regards to the rest of the season. He’s healthy with a clear shot of playing time, and at age 25, his career is still on the upswing.

Lance Berkman | Cardinals | 34% owned

Surprisingly, Puma’s return to the outfield hasn’t been a complete disaster (yet). Matt Holliday’s injury has shortened up Cardinals’ outfield corps for the time being, so Berkman is playing all nine innings without being lifted for a defensive replacement. He’s 6-for-20 with two doubles and three walks in the early going (.300/.391/.400), batting right behind Pujols and in the heart of the order. Obviously he still has 1B eligibility, but being able to fill an OF roster spot is a nice little fringe benefit.

Lyle Overbay | Pirates | 6% owned

The Pirates are off to a nice little 4-2 start, and Overbay’s been a big part of it. The new cleanup hitter is 7-for-23 with two doubles, a homer, and multiple hits in three of his last four games (.304/.385/.522). A 2007 hand/wrist injury really sapped his power for a while (.185 ISO from ’05-’06, .150 ISO from ’07-’08), but it’s rebounded since the start of the 2009 season (.195). He won’t hit a ton of homers, maybe 20 if everything goes right, but he should provide a health amount of doubles, as usual.

* * *

Taking advantage of hot streaks has been one of the rites of fantasy baseball since the game (sport?) was invented. You know they’re going to come to an end at some point, but there’s no harm in riding them out while the gettin’s good.

Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.





Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.

15 Comments
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GVeers
12 years ago

There is no way to predict hot streaks. If a guy has been hot, that is no evidence that he will continue to be hot, even in his next game.

Jimbo
12 years ago
Reply to  GVeers

Couldn’t disagree more.

Jimbo
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

…about predicting hot streaks.

I do agree that prior hotness doesn’t guarantee future hotness.

R M
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

I would tend to agree with him. Nobody saw JJ Hardy continuing his hot streak all of 2007. It can also be said, I think, that his 2009 slump kind of came out of nowhere as well.

R M
12 years ago
Reply to  Jimbo

And there are obviously a lot more examples than just JJ.

Jason
12 years ago
Reply to  GVeers

Absolutely. But generally there’s some low man on the totem pole that you can drop without worry, pick up a hot bat and give him a shot. Especially in a league that allows daily changes, one or two games isn’t going to make a difference. There’s certain players I’ll start every time no matter what (I’d never sub for Pujols), but there’s always a hot bat on the wire and a cold bat in your lineup that maybe you trust just a little more but not enough.

You never know when a hot streak or cold streak is going to end, but there’s still some room to gamble and maybe profit from it.

GTWMA
12 years ago
Reply to  Jason

Of course, you also never know when a hot streak is about to begin. The guy you dropped may be the one about to get hot, and the guy you picked up may be about to tank.

Trying to catch hot streaks is a losing proposition.