Low Ownership Hot Starters At First
First base is fantasy’s deepest position, but even the surest of sure bets can fall victim to slumps. Albert Pujols has a .242 wOBA. Prince Fielder has a .000 ISO. Dan Johnson has an .067 BABIP. Okay, maybe that last guy doesn’t fit so well, but the point is that this kind of stuff happens. When those slumps happen at the start of the season, they’re even more noticeable. So if you’re dealing with a slow start or say, Adam Dunn‘s appendectomy or Carlos Pena’s sprained thumb, here’s three players that could help you weather the storm until your regulars start producing…
Mitch Moreland | Texas | 20% owned
He’s not playing against lefties, but Moreland’s performed well in the early going. He’s 4-for-13 with two doubles and a triple so far (.308/.357/.615), benefiting from hitting near the bottom of what is currently the league’s best offense. Unlike some of the other guys in the post, Moreland has some long-term fantasy potential, at least with regards to the rest of the season. He’s healthy with a clear shot of playing time, and at age 25, his career is still on the upswing.
Lance Berkman | Cardinals | 34% owned
Surprisingly, Puma’s return to the outfield hasn’t been a complete disaster (yet). Matt Holliday’s injury has shortened up Cardinals’ outfield corps for the time being, so Berkman is playing all nine innings without being lifted for a defensive replacement. He’s 6-for-20 with two doubles and three walks in the early going (.300/.391/.400), batting right behind Pujols and in the heart of the order. Obviously he still has 1B eligibility, but being able to fill an OF roster spot is a nice little fringe benefit.
Lyle Overbay | Pirates | 6% owned
The Pirates are off to a nice little 4-2 start, and Overbay’s been a big part of it. The new cleanup hitter is 7-for-23 with two doubles, a homer, and multiple hits in three of his last four games (.304/.385/.522). A 2007 hand/wrist injury really sapped his power for a while (.185 ISO from ’05-’06, .150 ISO from ’07-’08), but it’s rebounded since the start of the 2009 season (.195). He won’t hit a ton of homers, maybe 20 if everything goes right, but he should provide a health amount of doubles, as usual.
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Taking advantage of hot streaks has been one of the rites of fantasy baseball since the game (sport?) was invented. You know they’re going to come to an end at some point, but there’s no harm in riding them out while the gettin’s good.
Ownership rates on based on Yahoo! leagues.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
There is no way to predict hot streaks. If a guy has been hot, that is no evidence that he will continue to be hot, even in his next game.
Couldn’t disagree more.
…about predicting hot streaks.
I do agree that prior hotness doesn’t guarantee future hotness.
I would tend to agree with him. Nobody saw JJ Hardy continuing his hot streak all of 2007. It can also be said, I think, that his 2009 slump kind of came out of nowhere as well.
And there are obviously a lot more examples than just JJ.
Absolutely. But generally there’s some low man on the totem pole that you can drop without worry, pick up a hot bat and give him a shot. Especially in a league that allows daily changes, one or two games isn’t going to make a difference. There’s certain players I’ll start every time no matter what (I’d never sub for Pujols), but there’s always a hot bat on the wire and a cold bat in your lineup that maybe you trust just a little more but not enough.
You never know when a hot streak or cold streak is going to end, but there’s still some room to gamble and maybe profit from it.
Of course, you also never know when a hot streak is about to begin. The guy you dropped may be the one about to get hot, and the guy you picked up may be about to tank.
Trying to catch hot streaks is a losing proposition.
@Jimbo: Do you have any evidence to suggest that hot streaks are predictable? Is this based off anything more than your presumed success in predicting them? I believe The Book does some pretty extensive analysis to show the randomness of hot and cold streaks.
Right, The Book already settled this. Which is why I find it annoying that we still see nonsense like “riding out the hot streak” on sites like Fangraphs.
Take it easy guys. Would you prefer Mike suggest you pick up Dan Johnson since he has a low ownership percentage and is off to a terrible start?
Moreland platoons with Mike Napoli tho. I just don’t see value on him, it would be a very long shot
If you’re in a day-to-day league and your 1B is hurt/slumping (I’m looking at you Justin Morneau) you can pick up Moreland and play whoever has the more favorable match-up for that day until your main guy’s production improves.
While guys like Pujols and Choo and Tulo are inevitably going to turn it around, it might be a down year for Prince, or Morneau might take a month to get used to MLB pitching again, or Carlos Pena might be Carlos Pena.
If I’m in that position I’ll take the hot bat every time. You know the player has confidence in himself and you know the team is going to try to get him at-bats.
… Until Morneau has that 4 for 5 game with 3 HRs, and you had him on the bench because you’re starting Moreland, and you kick yourself wondering why you did that.
The problem with trying to predict hot and cold streaks is that you don’t really “predict” them… You jump on a guy AFTER he started getting hot and you sit a guy AFTER he started playing poorly. Baseball season for EVERY player is a series of peaks and valleys, with their season total usually representative of their true talent level. By jumping on a peak AFTER the peak has started and sitting a player AFTER the valley has started, you essentially are guaranteeing yourself that you are getting LESS than what that player’s true talent level is. If you feel that’s a good way to manage your fantasy team, feel free.
Okay, lets say Morneau is up against C.C. Sabathia in Yankee Stadium. Moreland is going against John Lackey in Texas.
You’re going to start Morneau on the off chance he has a three HR day against one of the toughest left-handers in the game? When he’s 1-14 or whatever to start the year?
While yes, it is impossible to predict peaks and valleys of a season, I think you’ll more often sit an 0-4 day than a 4-4 day if you play the matchups and pay attention to how a hitter has fared recently. This is common sense, isn’t it?
How is picking matchups the same as predicting hot and cold streaks?