Chad Young’s Ottoneu Points 3B Ranks
We’re onto the third installment in this series, which started with catchers and then 1B. Today, we move across the diamond and look at 3B.
A few reminders:
- These are based on points leagues, but can roughly be used for 4×4.
- I use projected points/game as a starting point, but factor in playing time, future value, and my own adjustments to projections.
- These rankings are position-specific – when I say that Willi Castro is a $0 player, that doesn’t mean you can’t roster him, it just means I don’t think he has value as a third basemen.
- The tiers below range up – so when you see Max Muncy in the $15 tier, that means I might go to $16, $17, even $19 on hi, but probably not $20.
- All tiers are pre-inflation.
- As with the 1B list, the “True 3B” column below represents where players rank among guys you would actually use at 3B – D.J. LaMahieu may qualify at 3B, but you are using him at 2B or MI.
Third base is super fun and super deep at the top this year, and here are 78 of them:
Chad Young’s Ottoneu FanGraphs Points 3B Ranks
| Tier | Rank | True 3B Rank | Player | Eligibility | P/G per Depth Charts | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 1 | 1 | José Ramirez | 3B | 6.92 | If you want cause for concern, he hits so many FB that I suspect the .294 BABIP will come down, but he has room to regress a lot and still be the best 3B out there. |
| $45 | 2 | 2 | Anthony Rendon | 3B | 6.35 | Over the last four years, he leads all 3B in wOBA and he has been super consistent, with no signs of slowing down. |
| $35 | 3 | Alex Bregman | SS/3B | 6.72 | Over the last three years, he leads all 3B in wOBA, but 2020 was a big drop, and there’s just a touch of concern for me. | |
| $35 | 4 | 3 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | 6.08 | The dirty little secret about Coors Field is that it suppresses road numbers maybe as much as it helps home numbers; Arenado will still be Arenado in St. Louis. |
| $25 | 5 | Manny Machado | SS/3B | 6.09 | He’s been up and down the last few years, but could easily jump back towards that top tier with a repeat of his 2020. | |
| $20 | 6 | 4 | Rafael Devers | 3B | 6.35 | His career year in 2019 was driven by a big drop in K%; while he’s a great bounceback candidate, 2019 will probably stay his best. |
| $20 | 7 | 5 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B/3B | 6.27 | A 50.8% hard hit rate with elite max exit velocity is good; now he just needs to elevate the ball. |
| $20 | 8 | 6 | Eugenio Suarez | 3B | 5.82 | He got off to a wretched start and posted a shockingly low BABIP, otherwise he looked a lot like the guy who set the world on fire in 2019. |
| $15 | 9 | 7 | Matt Chapman | 3B | 5.91 | As hard as he hits the ball, I think Chapman may have a gear we haven’t seen yet. |
| $15 | 10 | 8 | Miguel Sano | 1B/3B | 5.96 | He’s so up and down it’s hard to get a read on him, At least it’s an odd year? |
| $15 | 11 | 9 | Justin Turner | 3B | 5.76 | If he were younger, he would be a lot higher on this list and you can probably get great production from him this year. |
| $15 | 12 | 10 | Kris Bryant | 3B/OF | 5.62 | Projections seems suggest a strong bounceback, but the second worst season of his career; I’ll take the over. |
| $15 | 13 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | 5.86 | His HR/FB rate dropped last year and took his season with it, but there’s good reason to think it will rebound. | |
| $10 | 14 | DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | 5.58 | His .364 wOBA since the start of 2016 is probably a better bet for 2021 than a repeat of his 2019-20, and might still be optimistic. | |
| $10 | 15 | 11 | Alec Bohm | 1B/3B | 5.55 | He probably won’t get quite this close to the top 10 in 2021, but you can lock him into your lineup for years to come and feel good about it. |
| $10 | 16 | Jeff Mcneil | 2B/3B/OF | 5.59 | His projections are calling for the lowest wOBA of his career – take the over. | |
| $10 | 17 | Ian Happ | 2B/3B/OF | 5.63 | I want to call 2020 his breakout, but he was almost exactly as good in 2019 and that just might be who he is. | |
| $10 | 18 | 12 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | 5.41 | There will be growing pains, but his glove will keep him in the lineup and his bat can be very good, even without another .450 BABIP. |
| $10 | 19 | 13 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 5.94 | He’s not the bat he once was and I’m skeptical he can match either the production or the number of games played in his projections. |
| $5 | 20 | Cavan Biggio | 2B/3B/OF | 5.12 | If the 2020 K-rate improvement was just small sample noise, he’s a solid option; if it was development, he’ll be even more than that. | |
| $5 | 21 | 14 | Gio Urshela | 3B | 5.15 | His Statcast data suggests the 2019-20 breakout was legit, but I’m not all the way bought in yet. |
| $5 | 22 | Mike Moustakas | 1B/2B/3B | 5.69 | He chased less and made more contact and yet his strikeouts jumped; I’m willing to bet the strikeout rate returns to his career numbers. | |
| $5 | 23 | 15 | Yoan Moncada | 3B | 5.30 | I get that COVID may have sapped his strength in 2020, but I still think 2019 will end up being a BABIP- and HR/FB-driven outlier. |
| $5 | 24 | 16 | Austin Riley | 3B/OF | 5.31 | With big jumps in plate discipline in 2020, he made real strides towards a big breakout. |
| $1 | 25 | 17 | Nolan Jones | 3B | 5.40 | He’ll get service timed by Cleveland, but his high-on-base approach will translate well. |
| $1 | 26 | 18 | J.D. Davis | 3B/OF | 5.17 | Some talk of McNeil playing more 3B could be a problem for Davis who has no real role if he isn’t the everyday 3B. |
| $1 | 27 | 19 | Hunter Dozier | 1B/3B/OF | 5.10 | His BABIP fell as did his hard-hit rate in 2020, but his walk rate took a nice leap, so there is upside here. |
| $1 | 28 | 20 | Nolan Gorman | 3B | #N/A | Gorman is supposedly getting work at 2B and if that holds, his ranking on this list becomes irrelevant; the bat will play at 3B but it will shine at 2B. |
| $1 | 29 | 21 | Jeimer Candelario | 1B/3B | 5.25 | 2020 wasn’t entirely BABIP, but it was enough BABIP that the fall is going to be rough. |
| $1 | 30 | 22 | Josh Jung | 3B | 2.98 | He should be up this year, but without any real experience above A-ball, it’s hard to know what to expect near-term. |
| $1 | 31 | 23 | Brian Anderson | 3B/OF | 5.15 | The fact that a perfectly solid Brian Anderson is this low says more about the talent at 3B than it does about him. |
| $1 | 32 | Nick Solak | 2B/3B/OF | 4.94 | He’s not as good as his 2019 or as bad as his 2020 and sometimes it’s best to just look at the whole body of work and say, “That seems right.” | |
| $1 | 33 | 24 | Edwin Rios | 1B/3B | 4.52 | He’d be much higher up this list without the Justin Turner signing, as the bat is intriguing. |
| $1 | 34 | 25 | Bobby Dalbec | 1B/3B | 5.14 | In 2018, in his first taste of AA, he struck out 37.1% of the time; next year, same level, he struck out 25.1% of the time. So at least there is precedent for the hope that he brings down the ugly 2020 K-rate. |
| $1 | 35 | Luis Arraez | 2B/3B/OF | 5.24 | He’s likely in a utility role, which caps his upside significantly, especially in points leagues. | |
| $1 | 36 | Carter Kieboom | 2B/SS/3B | 4.65 | He’s supoposed to flash decent power, but in limited big league time it has been non-existent. | |
| $1 | 37 | Willians Astudillo | C/1B/3B | 5.08 | Like Arraez, but more fun and fewer PA. | |
| $1 | 38 | Tommy La Stella | 1B/2B/3B | 5.09 | I might be relying too heavily on projections for this, a bit like I am for Urshela, but I think he settles back in as an average-ish hitter. | |
| $1 | 39 | 26 | Kyle Seager | 3B | 4.95 | Just ignore his 2018 and look for something similar to his 2019 and 2020. |
| $1 | 40 | 27 | Renato Nunez | 1B/3B | 5.35 | If he can repeat his 2020, he’ll hold a job all year and be far more valuable than this; if he can’t he’ll lose his job as the Tigers bring up the kids. |
| $1 | 41 | Ty France | 1B/2B/3B | 4.96 | His breakout mostly relies on the notoriously fickle line-drive rate. | |
| $1 | 42 | Colin Moran | 1B/2B/3B | 4.99 | It looked like he broke out in the first half of 2020, but his numbers down the stretch were pretty unexciting. | |
| $1 | 43 | 28 | Yandy Diaz | 1B/3B | 4.96 | In 2019 he finally elevated the ball and his career-high fly ball rate paid off; then he posted a career-low FB rate in 2020. |
| $1 | 44 | 29 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | 3B/OF | 5.19 | Was his 65 wRC+ in the first half just adjusting to a new league? The 125 wRC+ in the second half says yes. Well, it says maybe. |
| $1 | 45 | Ryan McMahon | 1B/2B/3B | 5.16 | If it feels like McMahon has been failing to take advantage of opportunities in Colorado for years, he has; but he is also only 26. | |
| $0 | 46 | Willi Castro | SS/3B | 4.94 | This is me maybe overreacting to his .448 BABIP in 2020, cause this is an interesting bat. | |
| $0 | 47 | Eduardo Escobar | 2B/3B | 4.93 | His 2020 wasn’t as bad as it looked, but I suspect we’re into a real decline. | |
| $0 | 48 | Dylan Moore | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.24 | I think the fall will be steep, and his 20+ SB won’t help you here. | |
| $0 | 49 | Nico Hoerner | 2B/SS/3B | 4.50 | He’ll be the Cubs starting 2B this year, but I think he projects more as a super-utility guy. | |
| $0 | 50 | Isaac Paredes | SS/3B | 4.38 | His lack of a clear path to playing time is a short-term issue; his lack of power might be a longer-term one. | |
| $0 | 51 | 30 | Sherten Apostel | 3B | 3.23 | He’s the second-best 3B prospect ready for time in 2021 in his own organization, which is not ideal. |
| $0 | 52 | 31 | Brett Baty | 3B | #N/A | May not stick and 3B and is probalby still a year away, but the bat should play when it plays. |
| $0 | 53 | 32 | Yuli Gurriel | 1B/3B | 4.88 | He’ll be better than he was in 2020, but I don’t think he has another 2019 in him. |
| $0 | 54 | 33 | Jonathan India | 3B | #N/A | Just not that exciting a bat, lacking the power that you really need to be a succesful Ottoneu 3B. |
| $0 | 55 | Jean Segura | 2B/SS/3B | 4.89 | Brad Miller muddies the waters for a guy whose 2020 plate discipline is such an outlier, I have to assume he will return to form and be a solid if unexciting bat. | |
| $0 | 56 | Brad Miller | 2B/3B/OF | 4.82 | A .358 wOBA over his last two seasons is really good, but it’s unclear what his role is going to be. | |
| $0 | 57 | Andres Gimenez | 2B/SS/3B | 4.38 | His intersting 2020 was interestng for a MI but not a 3B. | |
| $0 | 58 | David Fletcher | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.47 | Empty OBP is more exciting in Ottoneu than a lot of other formats, but it is still empty OBP. | |
| $0 | 59 | Luis Urias | 2B/SS/3B | 4.54 | He may have run out of opportunities with the Brewers. | |
| $0 | 60 | Tommy Edman | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.56 | His 2019 was super fun but his 2020 looks like a more reasonable expectation. | |
| $0 | 61 | Scott Kingery | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.08 | A .200 BABIP hid improved BB%, K%, and Barrel Rate, but he needs to combine his 2020 plate discipline with his 2019 EV and Hard Hit rates to break out. | |
| $0 | 62 | Joey Wendle | 2B/SS/3B | 4.30 | The floor is high but the ceiling is low, and 3B is too deep for his profile to have much value here. | |
| $0 | 63 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 1B/2B/3B | 5.01 | He’s been better than you think for 14 years now, and probably will be again, but he’s also unlikely to hold a full-time job. | |
| $0 | 64 | 34 | Rio Ruiz | 1B/3B | 4.50 | Had a mini-breakout that was lost in the 2020 mess, but he still only played to “watchlist” status. |
| $0 | 65 | 35 | Miguel Andujar | 3B/OF | 4.83 | I am always low on this profile, and now Andujar has been relegated to a bench role. |
| $0 | 66 | Mike Brosseau | 1B/2B/3B/OF | 4.82 | The Rays will maximize his value by putting him in positions to succeed, but those positions will be too few and far between to be a useful 3B. | |
| $0 | 67 | Jon Berti | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.38 | Someone will overvalue him because his 5×5 value is higher, thanks to the SB, but he hasnt shown any real points value. | |
| $0 | 68 | Shed Long Jr. | 2B/3B/OF | 3.97 | He’s only this high because there is still some upside there. | |
| $0 | 69 | 36 | Evan Longoria | 3B | 4.49 | Solid increases in Barrel rate, Hard Hit rate, and EV weren’t enough to bring him back to his glory days or earn him a full-time role. |
| $0 | 70 | 37 | Matt Beaty | 1B/3B/OF | 4.57 | He was buried on the bench before Turner re-signed. And then Turner re-signed. |
| $0 | 71 | Kyle Farmer | C/1B/2B/SS/3B | 3.79 | It’s not impossible to believe he could have a little Ottoneu value, but it won’t be as your 3B. | |
| $0 | 72 | 38 | Maikel Franco | 3B | 4.92 | Franco was a lot better in 2020, but still got non-tendered and now doesn’t have a job; he belongs on watchlists if he gets one. |
| $0 | 73 | 39 | Jake Lamb | 1B/3B | 4.70 | Lamb was legitimately excellent once he got full-time PA with Oakland, but he doesn’t even have a part-time job now. |
| $0 | 74 | David Bote | 2B/3B | 4.72 | Might be a guy who needs some launch angle help – good contact, high HR/FB rate, but a low launch angle and not enough FB in general. | |
| $0 | 75 | 40 | Matt Carpenter | 3B | 4.83 | His performance has been declining for a couple years, but the Arenado acquisition leaves him with nowhere to play. |
| $0 | 76 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | C/SS/3B | 4.09 | His only real value comes from being C-eligible and maybe getting 150+ starts. | |
| $0 | 77 | 41 | Travis Shaw | 1B/3B | 4.85 | Shaw seemed like an obvious buy-low to me last year; now that I am out on him, he’ll probably hit 30 HR. |
| $0 | 78 | Andy Young | 2B/SS/3B | 4.60 | His minor league numbers look fun, but he’s always been old for his leagues and I don’t expect much. |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.
Urshela is legit good. It’s a case of people being extra skeptical of late career breakouts like Turner & Muncy. He has a .289 xBA and .504 xSLG over 650 PA in 2019-2020. His .368 wOBA over 2019-20 is 7th among 3B so his 21 rank seems like a huge fade. If anything he seems to be getting better as he showed big gains in plate discipline in 2020 (10.3 BB% vs 6.2% career, 14.4 K% vs 17.6% career, 30.2 O-Swing% vs 37.7% career).