Yasmani Grandal Headed to the Southside
In a shocking free agent move, the Chicago White Sox have signed Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73 million-dollar deal. Several teams were said to be in on Grandal as he was not only the best catcher available this offseason, but also one of the very best catchers in all of baseball. After showing some flashes with San Diego, Grandal broke out with the Dodgers and wound up with a healthy 116 wRC+ over his four seasons in LA.
He averaged 22 HR, 61 RBI, 52 R, and a .790 OPS in about 470 PA per year. He has added PA yearly since 2015, culminating in a 632 PA effort in 2019 during which he hit 28 HR with 77 RBI, 79 R, and an .848 OPS. Additionally, Grandal has been one of the best defensive catchers in the league, especially with his framing. Thanks to that defense, Grandal has led the MLB in WAR since 2015 at 24.9, edging out Buster Posey (22.4) and J.T. Realmuto (17.3).
Grandal joins a White Sox team that seemed locked in at catcher with veteran James McCann taking the lead role and prospect Zack Collins backing him up. Instead, it now appears McCann will be pushed into backup duty while Collins will push to secure the DH role. Grandal’s framing will be a welcomed addition by the Sox pitchers as MLB’s Sarah Langs points out:
Yasmani Grandal was tied for 2nd-most Runs Extra Strikes from framing in 2019 among qualified catchers, at +13.
The White Sox primary catcher James McCann was -16, the worst mark among qualified catchers — by a lot.
So the White Sox just went from worst to T-2nd-best there…
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McCann rode an obscene .408 BABIP to an .873 first half OPS and All-Star appearance with 9 HR and 30 RBI in 251 PA. He matched the 9 HR and 30 RBI in 225 second half PA, but his AVG tanked from .316 to .226 as the BABIP came back to Earth .299. It was clear that the 30-year old was a bit fortunate and probably shouldn’t have a full-time role to himself, especially with the poor framing (though his arm has regularly been above average).
On the fantasy landscape, Grandal’s stock remains the same. He should be a top 3 catcher off the board. McCann’s value was limited to two-catcher and AL-Only leagues before this and Grandal’s arrival no doubt hits him hard. The extra boost in catcher framing will probably inch Lucas Giolito up even higher on boards and he could realistically wind up in the top 10 SPs by draft season in March. I’ve already shown some love for Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech so this move certainly helps. And now I can delude myself into thinking this will greatly impact Reynaldo Lopez because we all know I was going to quit him anyway. I’m weak.
is it possible Grandal’s stock goes up even given instead of catching for 125 games and playing 1b for 16 games- he might be able to catch only 110-115 games, and then 1b/dh the other 45 games or so… where he’d be fresher but still in the line up daily….. he only started 140 games last year- and you figure his number might go up to 150-155….
No. There is no chance that Grandal’s stock improves. This was what buying high looks like. Its far more likely that he spends time on the shelf than plays 155 games. It is a classic bad move that signals a commitment to winning to the fans but will not work out to be a bargain in any scenario. If you want to pay full sticker price I think you are competing with about 5 other teams. The Padres did this last year when they signed Machado. The teams that throw around money are not trying to make smart moves… they have other motivations. Not saying its a bad signing, but his stock isn’t going up – he is at his peak value.
Did Grandal hurt you somehow or cost you a bet? Just not seeing any real reasoning behind this and the other anti-Grandal screed from earlier.
I know the article is about Grandal but Lopez is really frustrating. At the same time he was somehow worth 2.3 WAR in each of the last 2 years. I think the Sox have 4 or 5 years of control left. You would think extremely cheap 2 WAR pitchers are actually valuable but it was hard to see the value he provided last year.
This is exactly what a terrible deal might look like in retrospect. An aging catcher is a bad bet. The season lines are overly kind to Grandal. He is very streaky. Streaky players (like Bryce Harper or Manny Machado) don’t really help their teams like they seem like they would based on the season line. When they are needed they lack the consistency to contribute even thought they get their numbers in the long run. It wasn’t long ago that Grandal had nearly played his way out of his gig in LAD – remember those playoffs? Lets’ not get carried away with the arbitrary metrics like “runs” from catcher framing – that is certainly a wild approximation of value. There is no way this pushes Giolito to realistic top 10 status – that would be exactly what taking framing metrics too seriously would look like. The fact that we don’t question absolutely flawed and in-progress metrics makes me skeptical of the entire sabermetrics revolution at this point. Nothing new there as that has been the story of the decade. I am thinking next decade will be more productive as some scrutiny is well overdue and should yield improved results unless a mindless progressive narrative continues to float for another decade. If that happens then I imagine that baseball will be in dire straits… its already on the doorstep with juiced baseballs now moving towards being considered a scandal and an entire swing revolution which was built on it. How about Amazon’s stolen base prediction campaign for this past season – what a monumental failure! I never saw it bear any fruit all season long. It was essentially a lesson in what AI can’t do. Baseball would be well served to reconnect with its roots… there is always value in that.
Not sure I follow or really agree with any of this. Baseball stats have been looked at critically throughout the sabermetric revolution. Hell, that’s how we got the revolution in the first place.
I think you’re greatly overstating Grandal’s streakiness and really just too focused on his batting average, especially since you include Harper as if he isn’t an elite player. He consistently gets on base and delivers big pop as a C.
And I said Giolito would be drafted as a top 10 SP because of Grandal’s influence, not that he’d necessarily finish there by the end of 2020.
This seems like a weird pushback against the statistical revolution when it’s already won. Baseball isn’t in dire straits and doesn’t need to regress back to the good ol’ days. It’s not perfect, particularly with marketing and paying their players properly, but it’s far from in trouble, too.
Weird rant, tbh.