Will 2018’s Busts Rebound? — A Review

Last week, I reviewed an article I published in the preseason discussing the breakouts from 2018 and whether I felt they would be a 2019 bust or were for real. Today, I will be reviewing the 2018 busts. Like for the breakouts, I discussed seven busts from 2018 and determined whether or not they would remain a bust (meaning earn similar depressed fantasy value) or rebound.

As a reminder, the hitter had to earn at least 80% of his 2017 dollar value to be considered REBOUND, otherwise he was labeled STILL A BUST.

Wow. So when getting this table together, I hadn’t yet checked to see which verdicts I reached in my original article. Seeing every one of these hitters remain a bust, with all but Eric Hosmer earning even less than they did in their 2018 bust season, made me assume I performed horribly. I was therefore pleasantly surprised to scroll down and realize that I actually labeled every single one of them STILL A BUST. I even went a step further in my original article by identifying three hitters, in order, that were closest to being a REBOUND instead. The top two hitters I named were Charlie Blackmon and Eric Hosmer, who along with Marcell Ozuna, did come closest to their 2017 earnings, though remained far away.

I’m saddened by Joey Votto’s rapid decline. It’s not even just his power that has plummeted, but his always elite walk rate just hit its lowest mark since his first full season in 2008. Couple that with a career worst strikeout rate, it’s pretty clear that this is simply an age-related skills collapse that isn’t going to rebound. He has now basically become Joe Mauer, which is useless in leagues that still use batting average instead of OBP.

You never want to project a significant rebound in stolen bases for a 31-year-old, and that’s exactly why Dee Gordon figured to continue his busty ways. Since he also figured to open the season hitting ninth in the Mariners order, the rest of his counting stats would be impacted as well. Now that his UZR has turned negative at second base for the past two seasons, and he was terrible in center field in 2018, I don’t see any reason why he would be more than just a bench bat. Though, perhaps his contract could give him a slightly longer leash.

Brian Dozier’s home run power disappeared in 2018, while his BABIP hit a career low, fueling his bust season. I went with age and a unfavorable position in the Nationals lineup as justification for labeling him STILL A BUST, and although he improved, it wasn’t enough. He also lost playing time to hot-hitting Howie Kendrick.

Charlie Blackmon’s appearance here highlights the flaw of performing this analysis the way I did. Though technically Blackmon was a bust in 2018, it was because his 2017 was otherworldly. No fantasy owner expected a repeat. He remained plenty valuable in his bust year, but because he was sooooo good in 2017, his fantasy value plummeted. My 2019 projection was similar to 2018, because of course no one could forecast anything close to his 2017 performance. The big issue now is that he swiped just two bases, after stealing double digits every year since 2014. At age 33 now, it would be silly to project any more than mid-single digit steals in 2020, so this is likely his new level of performance until age-related decline takes a bite out of his strikeout rate and power.

Marcell Ozuna had an interesting season. If you just look at his dollar value earned, you would think there was no rebound and he may have actually gotten a bit worse. But that’s not the case at all. His power, which dropped off in 2018, fully rebounded, while he suddenly grew an appetite for stealing bases, stealing just two fewer bases than he had in his entire career previously. But two major issues hampered his value, making my call correct — his BABIP plunged to a career low, despite a career best LD%, sending his batting average hurtling down to just .243, and he missed over a month with a fractured fingers, hurting all his counting stats. Though my call was technically correct, there was a real chance he would have rebounded earnings-wise if he hadn’t missed any time and he didn’t run into such poor BABIP luck.

LOL, I guess I’ll take the win for Giancarlo Stanton, but we have no idea how he would have performed if he enjoyed a full, healthy season. Hey, he’ll probably come cheaper now than he has in years and make for an excellent draft day buy for a change.

Amazingly, Eric Hosmer was the only player on the list who earned more than he did in his 2018 bust season. That’s actually a surprise looking at his overall line, as you would expect his additional homers are washed out by the leaguewide homer surge, while his steals dropped from seven to zero. The only real clue is the 30 RBI jump and a marginal increase in batting average. The disappearance of his steals is notable because he typically would be counted on to make up for a merely average homer total for a corner guy by chipping in more steals than the average. Now, he’s not really a strong contributor anywhere, since you can’t count on nearly 100 RBI again, and the strikeout rate spike is a major concern.