Why RotoGraphs Is Infatuated with the NFBC
There are been complaints about being FanGraphs being NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) centric (e.g. Big Kid Adds) and we should consider other league types. The deal is that besides a few exceptions, the NFBC provides a superior product to analyze drafts and in-season player movement.
First off, I know there are leagues just as or more competitive than the NFBC, but are their drafts and rosters movements made public like the NFBC. Just last week you could notice that I was ranked 2457th out of 2460 teams in the Online Championship. Having the information available is huge.
Additionally, the NFBC provides comparable information on multiple competitive leagues so a single draft pick or add doesn’t stand out. The Wisdom of the Crowds helps to even out valuations.
The final advantage is that the managers will remain active since they put dollars on the line. Again, I know free leagues can be active and competitive, but does someone curate a list of these leagues with all the moves available? The reason I like to use the higher stake leagues for Big Kid Adds is that I’ve found them more competitive. Having been in leagues at different NFBC price points (from free to $2500), I know the leagues are more competitive the higher the entry fee. In one of the free leagues last year, three teams didn’t make one move once the season started. That’s not the case in my higher stake leagues.
The NFBC ADP (average draft position) and FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) moves used to not be available for all analysts because a person needed to have paid for an NFBC league to view them. They just weren’t publicly available. When the NFBC opened up their ADP and AAV (average auction value) up to the public, their ADP began to dominate the early season player valuations discussion. It helps that the NFBC starts drafting leagues before the post-season is over.
I remember back to the times of when MockDraftCentral.com and Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army would be the best sources for player evaluations. Additionally in mid-February, 15 fantasy “experts” completed the mixed LABR draft and that draft board was scrutinized. Each of the draft sources gave a snapshot of player evaluation at that time and place.
Additionally, if the NFBC just kept averaging out the draft information from their October to March drafts, like every other site does, it would lose a lot of its luster. The key feature of the NFBC ADP is to be able to set the league type (e.g. draft-and-hold, auction) and a date range. Setting the date allows seeing how the market changes after an signing or an offseason injury. If other sites had these options, they would get used more.
Another aspect of the NFBC leagues is most use a larger player pool than the average league, so the moves involve a larger player pool. While the average ESPN and Yahoo league won’t come close to drafting 450 players (15 teams, 30 man roster), the NFBC leagues provide great options for watch lists or insights on changes in player valuation.
With at least a few dollars being dropped in the standard NFBC games, managers are going to trying to find value with every single draft pick. I remember back in the mock draft days when people would show up for five to six picks and then let the auto draft finish things. The NFBC isn’t perfect with the early drafts anchoring down some player valuations that could take months to correct.
For an in-season source, the NFBC does cater to the deeper leagues but not to the depths of AL or NL-only leagues. Again, I find looking at these deeper adds and drops useful for future shallow league options. Also, they help to figure out why a certain player was added. Many times it is a soft schedule that week or next.
I have found several other in-season sources that provide some unique insight that the NFBC can’t provide.
1. Yahoo’s player adds are from the last 24 hours so it does a great job of helping to find that day’s hot add.
2. CBS has the combination of fastest draw and FAAB league but their reported adds and drops are for the past seven days. It provides a snapshot of public demand before weekly adds take place. I use the changes as the baseline for my weekly FAAB article.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanny Gallegos RP STL | 37% | 40% | 3% |
| Adam Ottavino RP NYM | 30% | 34% | 4% |
| Jose Alvarado RP PHI | 20% | 50% | 30% |
| Jose Quijada RP LAA | 12% | 33% | 21% |
| Brad Boxberger RP CHC | 11% | 21% | 10% |
| Erik Swanson RP TOR | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Steven Wilson RP SD | 5% | 10% | 5% |
| Jesse Chavez RP ATL | 5% | 9% | 4% |
| Nick Anderson RP ATL | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Drew Smith RP NYM | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Dylan Lee RP ATL | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Zach Jackson RP OAK | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Colin Holderman RP PIT | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Tyler Rogers RP SF | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Bryse Wilson RP MIL | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Mark Leiter RP CHC | 0% | 3% | 3% |
3. Tout Wars runs their FAAB two hours before the NFBC runs on Sunday evening. The Tout Wars rank can be used to find a few of the players in demand. I provide the results from the two 15-team mixed leagues in my Sunday night chat.
The various leagues including AL and NL only can be found from this page with the links on the top under the Tout Wars banner. Click on “Transaction Logs” and then “View Bid-Miester Results”. Two notes on the link, one confusing and the other good. The confusing one is that that the players who look like they are being dropped, might not get dropped. The league rules are that players can be added and then teams can decide on drops later. Second, on the left are all the bids made for every player bid on. While it takes a little searching, the back up and unfulfilled bids can be checked.
I know the NFBC is far from perfect but for most analysis, it is the best available option.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
No complaints here! I love the weekly Big Kid Adds post, please keep them coming.
The NFBC is indeed the best to follow or participate in. Like numerous others I have been in various kinds of pools for many years including some I run myself. But the NFBC is the Big Dog. And they offer different styles and formats and of course different price points.
You acknowledge the issue, but, I think, underplay its significance. The valuation of players for FAB purposes in a 15 team league is materially different from a 12 team league, in which most people play. The advice is basically not useful for your target audience because the formats are incompatible.
Although the precise bid amounts may not be applicable to all formats, it is still useful to see what players are sought after and how they are valued relative to one another.
Man, cmon. You need that level of hand holding to see any benefit? If you can’t adjust Jeff’s suggestions for a league 4/5 the size that he’s working from, that’s on you.
I don’t personally, but I also devote an unhealthy amount of time to fantasy baseball. The point is the article is not helping the people who aren’t as hardcore, which is the vast majority of the fantasy playing audience. For people who are the target audience, I think they also have a sense of who is good and what their approximate auction value is. So who does this end up helping?
I think fangraphs audience tends to play in deeper than normal leagues. There are like 10 million sites that cater to the standard fantasy league that most people play in. I come to fangraphs for more depth
There are also a plenty of sites that cater to hardcore/NFBC players. There aren’t a lot of sites that offer the “standard-league” player the depth of insight that fangraphs could and did typically provide, which is the point I was trying (probably inartfully to make), but which supersoaker made more articulately below.
It’s all one’s perspective. I personally love to read the transactions. I am in a 15 team league. I find providing info on a league with 15 teams is far more “real” that 10 and 12 team leagues where there are always talent available. KEEP THE FINE WORK GOING Jeff.
Hey Jeff first time long time. Just want to chime in as an obsessive fantasy baseball fan who has followed you and your work for a long time, along with others in the industry, but has never played in NFBC and doesn’t really want to.
The issue for me is not that you guys (*gestures toward fantasy baseball twitter*) use NFBC data to support your analysis and decision-making, but moreso that it’s kind of assumed now that everyone plays and understands NFBC. In turn, I think folks like myself are starting to feel alienated in a way. The content is so geared toward strategy in NFBC contests, I can understand why some might feel the barrier to entry into being a fantasy baseball fan/player/consumer has become a bit harder to break because of that.
Because I’m an obsessive, I enjoy the content for entertainment’s sake and apply the advice to my specific leagues (mostly dynasty). But I can see why that might not be what others are looking for in their fantasy content.
sites and others cover NFBC and lots of people absorb the content well because you know what the scoring system, league sizes (both 12+15 team) are, what the roster sizes involve (23 active, 7 bench, no IL) and what the FAAB system is ($1000 budget/no zero dollar bids). that gives the listener and reader a clear and consistent ability to understand what is being spoken/written about (and therefore the valuation system being tagged to said player/roster construction/game theory–anyone who is “obsessive” about fantasy should then be able to apply that analysis to any other size leagues and formats. The problem with sites/pods that “specialize” in home leagues/small league sizes is that they constantly mention “12 team home leagues” (whats the roster, is it waiver, FAAB, first come first serve? or “standard point leagues”(what is standard? how do i do the math on the fly without any more specific details?)- or stash this player on your IL (how many IL spots?). You cannot honestly tell me its easier for you to absorb random pieces of vague details of player and team construct analysis that aids you in playing fantasy at better level. As Jeff also pointed out, having historical data and publicly available player movement trends (ADP+FAAB) takes player evaluations and market trend analysis to better levels.
We cannot assume that EVERYONE plays NFBC, but being involved in it and seeing the league entries grow exponentially every year-within ALL formats and entry points- makes us know and understand that the market for it is there and is growing.
Fine, you can fell “but has never played in NFBC and doesn’t really want to” or “think folks like myself are starting to feel alienated in a way”, but maybe you are alienating yourself from a form of fantasy baseball that would bring you joy.
And for ME, as being an OBSESSIVE fantasy player, i think its amazing how there is a site with historical data, career earnings, and a Hall Of Fame. Yeh–fantasy baseball is a fun little goofy, niche hobby– but damn if its cool if while spending all this time being an “obsessive” fantasy player and committing large portions of your life to- that you can win life altering money and make a Hall of Fame. Sounds like something I would want to be a part of
Keep up the excellent work, Jeff. I am a happy FG subscriber and your work will keep me coming back.
“ ranked 2457th out of 2460 teams in the Online Championship.”
That is impressive !
Funny for sure, but obviously a typo. Jeff’s rank is 277 at this point which I think is impressive in a league with players of that skill level.
Oh, I was at 2457 but only have a screenshot of 2455. The team was Beat_JZ and look at the overall standings from week 3. I have pulled it together and got up in the mid-2100’s. Because of injuries, Charlie Morton is my ace of that staff.
I am not sure what I was looking at Jeff. Usually my fascination is looking at NFBC 15 team auction values and the ADP to see if my SGP values before my own draft are completely out to lunch. Ouch on Charlie Morton being the current staff ace. I would want him on my team but not as the ace. Thank you for the good work as it is very relevant and especially in deeper leagues. I frequently find helpful commentary on players I have zeroed in on for FAAB in your posts.
Great article, thanks for sharing these sources!
i play in a few different leagues, with different settings and numbers of teams, and i still find the posts very helpful even though none are big money leagues. it’s meant to provide information that can help guide your decisions, not a blueprint for what you should do in your particular league.
Big kid adds is second only to the weekly waiver wire post for me as far as appointment RG reading.
I appreciate NFBC’s volume of early pre-season drafting. It sets a reasonable baseline for draft prep and I have confidence that participants have something at stake.
Our league does not use faab. Already hard enough for the less dedicated owners, 16 team league, to keep relevant.
I don’t think anyone has an issue (at least I don’t have an issue) with using the league for articles and research. It’s simply the name “Big kid Adds” that I find childish and ridiculous. Putting money on the game doesn’t make you big or mature or anything g like it.
Maybe it is tongue in cheek, but It does not sound the least bit tongue in cheek to me. If it is I apologize.
When minor leaguers get called up isn’t sometimes referred to as joining the big kids? That’s not to say some minor leaguers are better than some major leaguers or that they’re more mature or larger necessarily
That’s what you have an issue with? Get a life.
You’re the one applying a value judgment to the name, not Jeff. Lots of projection going on here.
I enjoy almost all of the NFBC-related content here, even though I don’t play in the NFBC and have no intention to. It’s entertaining if nothing else.
I wish there was more 12-team and points-league focused content because roster decisions are different there than with 15-team roto leagues, because replacement level is at a different point and the waiver wire has a different pool of names.
A quick plug for the Ottoneu-based content here – it’s really superb. Ottoneu is, IMHO, easily the best format out there for die-hard fantasy baseball nerds like myself, and having Chad Young, Jake Mailhot and others contribute Ottoneu-focused content has been really enjoyable and helpful.
I definitely appreciate the posts you listed, and don’t mind the source for the content — you’re right, its a good proxy for the “market” value of a player. The annoying part is when writers talk about their team or so-and-so’s team; its like inside joke stuff that doesn’t really resonate with most readers. And that’s not to say you do it, just in general, its kinda boring to hear about someone else’s league — just not compelling content if we’re being real.