Starting Pitcher Chart – April 27th

D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

In past seasons I’ve done this Daily SP Chart down the stretch and invariably there are comments asking why I don’t do it all season. I’ve never really had a great answer for that so now I’m doing it!

Once the season gets going, the chart will include their performance over the last five starts (for the first few weeks, it’ll be their 2023 stats), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. The opponent wOBA will remain blank for a while until we get some data and because there is so much lineup turnover year-to-year, I’m not going to include last year’s mark. I’ll start including wOBA data on April 17th.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Trying something new by splitting up the data a bit with the recos & comments in one chart and the recos and stats in another. Let me know if that’s preferable to putting it all in one. I decided this after writing it, but for the future this could give me a bit more space for deeper comments, too. At any rate, I’m open to any feedback even if it’s constructive criticism!

Thursday, April 27th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ NOTE
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA OAK R x x x Hasn’t allowed more than 3 H in an outing and OAK isn’t a great bet to be the first (watch them get 8 H outta nowhere today, lol)
2 Gerrit Cole NYY at TEX R x x x Almost at a boringly good level at this pt
3 Shane McClanahan TBR at CHW L x x x Hard for the 11% BB to hurt when batters have a .176 AVG against him
4 Tyler Mahle MIN KCR R x x x Running a career-high K-BB, but previous HR issues remain (1.7) despite escaping Great American Ballpark
5 Dylan Cease CHW TBR R x x x I don’t love starting anyone v. TBR, but Cease is a rotation lock even w/the 11% BB
6 George Kirby SEA at PHI R x x x Just 1 BB all season has kept his WHIP tiny despite a 9.1 H rate
7 Julio Urías LAD at PIT L x x x PIT not a walkover right now but that doesn’t mean I’m sitting Urias anywhere
8 Logan Webb SFG STL R x x x K% has spiked to 30% despite matching career SwStr of 11% and only a 3-pt boost in called-strike rate
9 Joey Lucchesi NYM at WSN L x x x Looked sharp back in ’21 before inj. & has been really solid over his career (4.07 SIERA, 17% K-BB in 345 IP)
10 Kyle Gibson BAL at DET R x x x Hold him after this one for an at KCR start next week
11 Kyle Wright ATL MIA R x x x Still ramping up after a bit, but I have no issues starting him everywhere
12 Andrew Heaney TEX NYY L x x x Now has 3 straight HR-free outings
13 Matt Strahm PHI SEA L x x Walks a wire w/his low pitch count meaning he has to be really sharp to reach 5 IP; the 38% K seals the stream for me
14 Seth Lugo SDP at CHC R x x At least 5 Ks in all 4 starts and no more than 3 ER in any of them
15 Hayden Wesneski CHC SDP R x x Wasn’t great v. LAD, but wasn’t bad either; taking the shot w/SDP offense lagging & league-high 26% K v. RH
16 Braxton Garrett MIA at ATL L x Totally fine skipping this start, but gets ATL next time out, too, so could be parked on reserve for a bit
17 Mitch Keller PIT LAD R x Oviedo was meh, Contreras was great; Keller’s been the best of the bunch — can he handle LAD?
18 Miles Mikolas STL at SFG R x The .402 BABIP will regress, but will that regression start in SF? They’re tied for 1st in K v. RH at 26%
19 JP Sears OAK at LAA L x On the radar after an 11-K game, but still some concerns about the 2.5 HR that incl. at least 1 HR per start
20 Zack Greinke KCR at MIN R Essentially streaming for ratios with a 17% K and 0 Ws, not sure the juice is worth the squeeze
21 Joey Wentz DET BAL L Seems to be prone to blowup inning; could have some streamer value down the road
22 Trevor Williams WSN at NYM R I just don’t see any real upside
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 

Thursday, April 27th Starter Stats
RK PITCHER TM OPP THR 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB OPP L30 wOBA wOBA RK
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA OAK R x x x 28 0.64 0.82 22% 0.285 27th
2 Gerrit Cole NYY at TEX R x x x 34 0.79 0.79 21% 0.349 5th
3 Shane McClanahan TBR at CHW L x x x 29 1.86 1.03 22% 0.294 23rd
4 Tyler Mahle MIN KCR R x x x 21.2 3.32 1.15 20% 0.255 30th
5 Dylan Cease CHW TBR R x x x 26.1 2.73 1.18 18% 0.365 1st
6 George Kirby SEA at PHI R x x x 22.2 3.57 1.06 17% 0.350 4th
7 Julio Urías LAD at PIT L x x x 27 3.33 1.22 23% 0.359 5th
8 Logan Webb SFG STL R x x x 30.2 4.40 1.14 26% 0.325 12th
9 Joey Lucchesi NYM at WSN L x x x 7 0.00 0.86 29% 0.336 8th
10 Kyle Gibson BAL at DET R x x x 30 3.60 1.17 13% 0.265 29th
11 Kyle Wright ATL MIA R x x x 13.2 5.93 1.68 5% 0.293 24th
12 Andrew Heaney TEX NYY L x x x 18.2 4.34 1.34 14% 0.298 20th
13 Matt Strahm PHI SEA L x x 17 3.18 1.00 28% 0.286 28th
14 Seth Lugo SDP at CHC R x x 22.2 2.78 1.28 18% 0.344 6th
15 Hayden Wesneski CHC SDP R x x 17.1 6.23 1.67 6% 0.297 23rd
16 Braxton Garrett MIA at ATL L x 16 2.25 1.31 18% 0.389 2nd
17 Mitch Keller PIT LAD R x 29.2 3.64 1.25 15% 0.350 3rd
18 Miles Mikolas STL at SFG R x 25.1 7.46 1.89 13% 0.355 2nd
19 JP Sears OAK at LAA L x 21.2 4.98 1.11 22% 0.359 4th
20 Zack Greinke KCR at MIN R 27.1 4.61 1.28 13% 0.315 18th
21 Joey Wentz DET BAL L 16.2 7.56 1.50 8% 0.347 7th
22 Trevor Williams WSN at NYM R 21.1 3.38 1.08 11% 0.317 15th
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Anon
11 months ago

Greinke is such an interesting pitcher. He’s gained a little velo this year and is over 90 for the 1st time since 2017, but he’s almost abandoned the 4-seamer for a cutter and 2-seamer and continues his escalated use of a curve ball which he’s been increasing over the last 4 or so years. He’s become a total kitchen-sink 6-pitch pitcher with at least 9.6% usage of 6 different pitches per Pitch Info (though 3 of them are fastballs). There can’t be anybody else throwing 6 different pitches at least 9.6% of the time. I skimmed the list of qualified pitchers and there are a couple guys that come close (Sonny Gray, Dean Kremer, Kyle Gibson, Bassitt) but nobody at 9.6%+ on 6 different pitches.(Darvish throws 7 pitches – LOL)

He’s become Chelcie Ross from Major League.

The writing is probably on the wall for him but I love that he is still out there trying to figure out a way to get guys out.

Last edited 11 months ago by Anon
GeoffreyLoganmember
11 months ago
Reply to  Anon

Bassitt throws 8 pitches.

Anon
11 months ago
Reply to  GeoffreyLogan

Just going by what Pitch Info says since I wanted to skim through all pitchers and Fangraphs has a leaderboard page for Pitch Info and they say 6 for Bassitt. I do see where Savant gives him 8 pitches though