Who Should I Pick?!

If you’ve been reading any of my writing this winter or listening to the podcast, then you’ve heard me reference a draft I started back in November (click link for pics of first 23 rounds) during a trip to Arizona for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Forums. It’s one of the NFBC Draft Champions 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. We did the first 23 rounds live and we start the final 27 today.

I picked 15th out of 15 in this draft and part of that was for today. I knew that 15th pick gets the first pick of the second part and the time in between often pushes some strong options up the rankings who otherwise would’ve been gone if we started from round 1 today. By the way, NFBC does the Kentucky Derby Style draft slotting where you pick your spot from what’s available. So I was 5th or 6th I think to make my selection and once 1, 2, and 3 were gone, I decided to jump back to 15 to be on the elbow with added benefit of the first pick in the winter session.

I’m interested in who y’all think I should take. Mind you, I’m not polling and then automatically taking the top choice, especially if it’s not a runaway vote. I just find this split-draft really interesting and I’d like to cash in my advantage so I figure talking it out with y’all will help.

I’m on the clock as of noon central with an 8-hour timer. I’m certainly not looking to take very much of that time at all since I’ve been sitting on this pick for quite some time. So after about 1 pm central, comments on who I should take will be moot as the selection will have been made, but then you can just make fun of me for picking incorrectly.

Before we get to who is available, let’s take a gander at my team (who says “take a gander”?):

The Candidates

So right off the bat, I’ve got a starting spot open with the C2. I mentioned above catchers go quickly in this league. It happens every year and yet I’ve been slow to adjust and too often get stuck at catcher. Grandal was my lone solid catcher last year, too. I ended with Tyler Flowers as my C2.

Eight of the 15 teams have two catchers, one even has three (Welington Castillo, Devin Mesoraco, and Cameron Rupp). Rupp was actually my C2 target in round-20 or later, but he went in the middle of round 18 so I just decided to wait and only James McCann and A.J. Pierzynski went after that.

Here are the top catchers on my board:

• John Ryan Murphy (MIN)
• Jason Castro (HOU)
• Dioner Navarro (CWS)
• Caleb Joseph (BAL)
• Robinson Chirinos (TEX)
• Hank Conger (TB)

Soooo yeeeaaahhhh. I could also go back to Flowers!

I hinted in Suarez note that maybe shortstop is the way to go. If I had just taken Correa instead of Votto, I wouldn’t be in this position and I’d have Correa & Betts en route to a wire-to-wire win. Alas, that’s merely fiction at this point. At least the Todd Frazier trade improved the Suarez pick because he’s now slotted in at third instead of having to battle Zack Cozart for SS reps.

Here are the top shortstops on my board:

• Ketel Marte (SEA)
• Danny Espinosa (WAS)
• Chris Owings (ARI)
• Adeiny Hechavarria (MIA)
• Andrelton Simmons (LAA)

Marte jumps out from this list and perhaps from the entire pool of available guys. He’s going 11th among shortstops with an ADP of 228. For reference, this will be pick 346 that I’m making to start round 24. I don’t have a great read on Marte, but he impressed in a small 247-PA sample last year. But how legit is that 10% BB rate?

With 10 career HR in 1896 minor league PA (and just a .370 SLG), there’s no reason to pitch him too carefully, so I’m thinking that walk rate has to drop in 2016. He does have three straight 20+ SB seasons, though, and then 31 in 131 games during his first two seasons in Seattle’s system. I’ve only got one SS-eligible player right now, too. Hernandez had 16 games there last year and you only need 10 in-season to qualify for NFBC so maybe he could earn it.

Espinosa is a starter with Yunel Escobar being dealt. Owings was a colossal disappointment last year, but maybe the shoulder that cost him nearly half of 2014 was still an issue that he played through. He still swiped 16 bags in 20 tries despite the wretched season (52 wRC+). He’s shown enough pop in the minors that a double-double isn’t out of the question for him.  Adeiny and Andrelton are more glove than bat, but that glove will keep them on the field and playing time is very valuable in a league like this where we will only have these 50 drafted players all year.

Best of the rest position players:

• Byung-ho Park (MIN) – 1B
• Nori Aoki (SEA) – OF
• Brandon Moss (STL) – 1B/OF
• Chris Carter (MIL) – 1B
• Yunel Escobar (LAA) – 3B

I’m pretty set on closers with two super-studs, but here are the penciled-in closers who are out there:

• Steve Cishek (SEA)
• David Hernandez (PHI)
• Brandon Maurer (SD)
• Corey Knebel (MIL)
• Jumbo Diaz (CIN)
• Jason Motte (COL)

I’m not too excited about Cishek so even if I needed a closer, I might still pass these guys for a couple rounds.

There are obviously tons of starting pitchers available, but the only one I’m really considering here is:

• Kenta Maeda (LAD)

I like how my starting rotation played out after seeing it marinate for a couple months. I certainly need plenty more pitching given some of my high-risk assets, but I don’t think it’s a huge need right away in round 24. But Maeda is out there. I’m just not sure on him.

Fill my open spot in the starting lineup? Address a thin position up the middle? Take the highest ADP available (Park)? Or none of those options?!

Please vote for who you think I should take and definitely feel free to leave your comments on the team so far. You can also comment if you prefer someone who isn’t listed, but I think these are the guys I’m really considering… so now that I’m thinking about it maybe don’t comment on someone you’d prefer over these candidates because I’m not going to take him. 

UPDATE:

I took Byung-ho Park. Thank you so much to all of you who voted and commented. I really appreciate the talk-through. I think Marte and Maeda will definitely go before I pick again, but several of the other guys listed should make it back in round 25. I’ll probably write an update of this draft after another 5 or so rounds if that’d be at all interesting to y’all.