Who Might Outperform Mike Trout?
On Monday, I laid out my thought process for selecting Mike Trout first overall in 2020. To summarize, we have several legitimate choices. Absent secret information, they’re all a shrug away from the same, albeit in slightly different shapes. Trout stands out because he’s been so consistently good for so long. The alternatives all have shorter track records or a chance to fall out of the top 30 players – even without an injury. By comparison, we know a healthy Trout is a monster fish.
Today we’ll take a peek at all the players you could reasonably select over Trout on draft day. Let’s toss them into a few buckets. ADPs are from NFBC.
*h/t to cartercrew for providing the name of this article.
The Consensus Favorites
Ronald Acuna
There are three players who are consistent candidates to be selected ahead of Trout. In fact, Acuna has emerged as the consensus first selection (1.42 ADP) while Trout and Yelich are in a virtual tie at 2.39 and 2.42 ADP respectively. Bellinger actually checks in fifth overall. Opinions seem to vary with a pick range from second to 10th overall (5.46 ADP).
Let’s address Bellinger first. He’ll probably post something like 45 home runs, 230 runs+RBI, 15 stolen bases, and a .300/.400/.600 slash line. That’s basically a ho-hum year from Trout. Meanwhile, Bellinger had a seriously disappointing (but still good) performance in 2018. He looked lost in the 2017 playoffs. If I had to pick the early first rounder with the most risk to fall outside of the top 30, it would Bellinger. I also consider him among the likeliest to outperform Trout. When everything is clicking, his hitting skills are closest to those of Trout and Yelich.
Speaking of Yelich, I personally prefer him to Acuna even though the sharps at NFBC disagree. There is ostensibly some concern about his broken knee cap affecting his stolen base totals. It’s also worth noting he set a career high with 30 swipes last year. However, his previous career high came in 2018 (22). The Brewers like him running.
Yelich has posted some unreal numbers since the second half of 2018, but we’re still talking about a pretty small sample of data. It’s not a stretch to wonder if the knee, regression to his HR/FB rate, and/or a sharp increase to his swinging strike rate will catch up to him. If he steals another 30 bags, he has every chance to easily outperform Trout. If not, he’ll probably wind up performing similarly, albeit with slightly greater risk of non-injury decline.
In order to barely outperform Yelich last season (per the Auction Calc), Acuna needed 135 more plate appearances. I’m projecting them for roughly 660 plate appearances apiece in 2020. The case for Acuna comes down to his 40/40 potential. Nagging leg injuries capped him at 37 steals last year. Notably, Acuna’s speed is better described as above average than elite. He’s no Adalberto Mondesi. His batting average is also considerably weaker than Trout, Yelich, and Bellinger. For him to repeat as the top roto hitter, he’ll need all the steals he can nab. Or a repeat of 2019 when his top competitors suffered extended injuries.
The Pitcher
There are several very good pitchers in the 2020 draft pool, but there’s only one consensus top choice among them. So with apologies to Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, let’s focus on the newest Yankee ace.
Cole projects for only a 3.25 ERA, but he’ll also supply around 300 strikeouts in a healthy campaign. With a low walk rate and hefty supporting cast, he has the makings of a four category stud. Projections are inherently pessimistic about elite players – that’s a feature, not a bug. It’s easier to fall towards the pack than maintain the absurd performance growth Cole has demonstrated over the past two seasons. However, it’s hard to shake the sense that Cole can absolutely maintain this quality of production. If he does, he’ll likely finish the year as the top roto asset.
Of course, there are added risks when selecting a pitcher. Injury occurrence and related decline is higher than for hitters, and it only takes one nightmare performance to botch an ERA or WHIP. He’s also moving to a new team which carries some added uncertainty. The Yankees have messed up a couple pitchers (most notably Sonny Gray) in recent years. Cole reportedly benefited from the Astros analytical tools. Perhaps the Yankees won’t offer him the same support?
With Cole, I’m reminded of the age old argument of Clayton Kershaw or Trout. That was once a legitimate either/or scenario. I always took Trout.
The Zig
After missing a goodly chunk of the early season, Turner contributed 19 home runs and 35 stolen bases despite playing through two broken fingers. Make no mistake, he’s a special talent. Unless the Nationals radically overhaul the lineup, Turner will once again miss out on RBI opportunities (just 57 RBI in 569 plate appearances). That’s not a category you want to punt with your first hitter off the board. On the upshot, a full season could include upwards of 25 home runs with 50 steals, 120 runs, and a .290 average. He’s less attractive in OBP formats.
In my opinion (and presumably many others), selecting Turner over Trout is a gross overreaction to the scarcity of stolen bases. Then again, it could be a winning play if you were to catch discount rebounds from Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, and Khris Davis (among others). Bold strategy or just plain dumb?
Multi-Threats
At a 5.08 ADP, Betts is the fourth player off the board. He’s also never been picked higher than fourth overall. It seems there’s a consensus understanding that Betts ranks after Acuna, Trout, and Yelich. Perhaps fantasy managers are concerned about an impending trade.
Betts has twice served as the alternative pick to Trout, although he’s failed to pay off both years. His best seasons have correlated with when the fantasy crowd is a little down on him. One interesting bit about Betts is his low-for-this-era HR/FB ratio. He’s buffed his fly ball rate to sell out for more power, but he might be better served by slightly lowering his launch angle. A 30/30 campaign with something like a .310/.400/.575 batting line is only around his 70th percentile outcome. That’s roughly how he performed in 2018 when he tied Yelich as the top bat.
Story doesn’t get much credit in this conversation – possibly because there’s a small but tangible risk of a sub-.250 batting average. He’s also not a factor for the first pick in OBP formats. Even so, Coors Field is a helluva drug. He’s consistently improved his launch angle, making his high BABIP entirely believable. His 70th percentile outcome looks like a 40/20 campaign with 210 R+RBI and a .290 batting average. It’s not quite Trout-ian.
Lindor was the third or fourth player off the board last year before a calf injury waylaid him. Despite missing time, he returned to record 654 plate appearances with 32 home runs and 22 stolen bases. The optimistic roto-stats projection looks awfully similar to Story except it’s built into a package with obvious room for growth and a high floor. It’s possible for him to tighten his launch angle to improve his oddly low BABIP.
Getting A Bit Too Cute
Suspect stolen base totals limit the value of this trio. They all receive a substantial boost in OBP formats. Arenado did narrowly outperform Trout as part of his banner 2019 campaign, but he needed Trout’s injury to get there. I’m not sure it’s fair to expect Arenado to improve a second straight season. There’s also the small matter of a possible trade (I consider it witheringly unlikely). Arenado has ranged from 4th to 19th pick (12.05 ADP).
You’ve probably seen Bregman discussed as a home run regression candidate. His 41 home runs were not supported by Statcast data. His home park is ludicrously power friendly to right-handed hitters. Still, expect a return to around 30 home runs with otherwise elite output. It appears he’s done taking risks on the basepaths. Bregman has gone between pick 4 to 13 (8.27 ADP).
Soto ran a bit and was shockingly successful (12-for-13) given his merely average speed. More excitingly, the youthful slugger traded a bunch of grounder for fly balls and line drives while retaining his elite plate discipline. Nearly all players his age are toiling away in the low-minors. Skills growth is quite possible. He’s ranged from pick 7 to 20 (12.12 ADP).
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The only correct answer to your question is Wander Javier. I haven’t even heard of half the bums you suggested here.
Invoke and he shall come.
LET
CASTRO
MASH
Again?
#freewander
#javiernotfranco
It’s funny when you start drifting off into what-ifs. I see a dozen other guys not mentioned that I can think “Well, maybe if. . . .”. Then I snap back to reality and go “Yeah, I’m taking Trout if I have #1”.
One interesting one: what would it take for Ohtani to overtake #1? Not #1 draft obviously since that isn’t happening but the overall #1 at the end of the year. Obviously it would have to be in leagues where he isn’t bifurcated into hitter and pitcher, but assuming he starts once a week on the mound and then DH’s ~4 times a week, what if everything broke just right and he went 18-2 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 220 K along with .300, 30 HR, 200 R + RBI and 15 SB at the plate? Yes, those are pretty rosy numbers but what would it take?
More realistically, probably something like 10 W, a 3.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 150 K (140 IP) with a .290/.350/.550 batting line, 25 HR, 10 SB, and 150 R+RBI in 500 PA.
He might even be top overall with less output on both sides. I can’t imagine it takes much for a 9-category player to grab the top spot. That said, it’s VERY hard to be a positive value pitcher and hitter.
Lets say trout is #1 player by scoring a 20 in ESPNs player rater from the 5 hitting categories. he gets zeros in all the pitching
Ohtani to beat trout, has 9 categories to score in, so he needs a little over 2 pts of value in each – basically he needs to be half the hitter trout is and a decent pitcher.
Looking at the ESPN player rater from last year, the 49th ranked pitcher was James Paxton, who provided 5.78 in value with a 3.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 186 Ks, and 15 wins in 150.2 IP. The 49th ranked hitter was Yasiel Puig who provided 7.08 value with a .267 avg, 24 home runs, 19 stolen bases, 76 runs, and 84 RBI. Combine those two values and the 12.86 frankenplayer would have just eked out Bellinger’s 12.85 for the 5th overall spot among all players. Combined Ohtani doesn’t need to have a monster season to have monster player rater value, and he’s definitely on the short list of potential number 1 spot players for me.
This is certainly interesting. I do wonder what if any changes they have for Ohtani in 2020 with new coaching staff. Maddon said he wants him to hit on days he pitches, and they also have 2 other pitcher/hitters floating around in the minors/mlb that might enable them to do some weird double switches/ losing dh stuff. The whole one rest day before/after was something they started in Japan, but I also am not sure it is something that is set in stone. The bat took a major step back last year, but that could just be variance/rehabbing his arm. Who knows.
Anon is right on…. And Ohtani doesn’t count in many leagues. Only if you have daily roster moves… (it can’t even happen on Yahoo’s platform, where they split him into 2 humans).
This is certainly rosy but others bring up a good point. 22ish starts of above average performance, 350-400 ABs of a 135 wrc+ and that’s a top 5ish player in daily leagues. I play in daily leagues where he’s one player and no one is drafting him in the first three rounds. Consider the extra roster spot he opens and he’s a huge potential value at pick 50.
I know all leagues are different but I would really like to have a chance to pick Arenado at 19 under virtually any circumstance.
feel like his safeness is almost boring to people. he’ll likely never be #1 but also never fall off unless of a major injury
As someone who has Bregman as a keeper, I am petrified as to whether his home run totals have been significantly trash can aided, especially given how the Statcast data do not support his power output. It is not difficult to imagine his HR totals halving. A trash can alert really should be included in every fantasy article that discusses him.
Maybe play a trash can sound every time someone opens an article involving a Houston Astro so that readers know an Astro discussion is coming.
Bregman is the guy I am most down on this season. I will not own him anywhere. I’d be trying to trade him honestly if I owned him in a keeper. The trash cans were a concern, but the ballpark is too. Of course the fence isn’t changing, but he eked (wow can’t believe that is only one e in eked) out more just enough home runs than anyone. Betts did that one year too….10 home runs that wouldn’t be a home run anywhere else. When you factor in that those were all pulled home run fly balls at home that he knew what pitch was coming, well shit alarms are going off everywhere. There was a writer on twitter who wrote something about how with neutral luck/settings he could of put up something like 26 hrs 100rs and 80rbis…that is scary. That wRC+ going from 114-123-156-168 is really sexy…and he hit better on the road. However no one knows if they didn’t have a system set up on the road also, and the getting incredibly lucky last year includes the road as well. I dunno, and he basically quit running. I mean I am probably wrong and he is going to post a monster year, but I’d much, much rather have whoever else is sitting there when he is picked.
You didn’t even mention Jose Ramirez. Fortunately I was way down on him last year after his second half of 18. I do feel like he put it back together last year with an ever increase 154, 170 then 318 wRC+ in July, August, Sep/Oct. He hit 18 hrs and stole 6 bases in 187 at bats while hitting .327. Now I don’t want to play Mr. Prorater, but thats a 70 hr a year pace, ha. Now obviously he isn’t going to do that, and he didn’t run as much, and he is actually not fast at all and I am always scared of short guys gaining a few lbs and quitting running (Altuve) but, you can dream on him. If you combine his first half of 2018, and his 2nd half of 2019….well, holy shit. That is 44 hrs, 28 stolen bases and a 315 batting average in like 550 at bats due to injury. That is 1 overall territory.
Last year he was the 3rd overall pick in quite a few leagues, I thought hell no and wouldn’t take him unless he fell till end of 1st round. This year I am actually higher on him then I was last year, but I don’t have to pay that price. Those are all good things, at least to me.
Acuna seems to be the consensus 1 right now. I think your write up on him seems to be a bit more down on him than I would venture you should be. I don’t think it is a given that his batting average will not be high, or as high as those other guys. He literally just turned 22 last month. I think the sky is the limit for him in terms of fantasy. Obviously the stolen bases help a ton, but I think it is plausible, even likely that he takes a step forward with the bat. Even conservative steamer thinks his bat will improve, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him “breakout” into the best player in the game territory in real life either.
jram’s NFBC ADP is around 20 right now. He definitely feels like a guy you can take around there and he easily returns first round value.
Agreed. I actually took him in the first round in an NFBC this week, (13) because I didn’t like anyone else who was on board currently at that point as much as I liked him, and wasn’t sure he was going to make it back to me.
“His batting average is also considerably weaker than Trout”; last year Acuna hit .280, Trout hit .291.
Right. That’s like the 80th percentile for Acuna’s batted ball profile and 35th percentile for Trout.
Do you mean plate discipline profile? His xwOBACON is actually pretty close to Trout’s (and was 5th overall in 2019), it’s just all those extra strikeouts vs fishman that will make it tough to maintain the average
Yes.
It’s unfair to criticize Bellinger for his 2017 playoff performance as a rookie and then his 2018 sophomore season. He started the 2017 season at age 21 and 2018 at age 22, and would not be the first young player to have highs and lows as pitchers adjust and he adjusts to their adjustments. He seems to have figured out a thing or two at the age of 24, and should only get better as he enters his prime years.
Normally I would agree, but I think you do need to criticize him for that when you’re comparing him against a guy who has never had a single full season wRC+ lower than Bellinger’s breakout/best year, which includes his age 20 and 21 seasons.
Being compared to Trout forces the tiniest nits to be picked, really.
A fine, fine Troutgraphs comment if ever there was one. Bellinger had a huge breakout and won the MVP last season but it would be the worst year of Trout’s career by wRC+ and his 2nd worst by WAR (only because Trout missed 48 games in 2017 and his WAR came in at 6.8 vs. Bellinger’s 7.8 last year).
Let’s see:
– Since Trout’s 1st season in 2012 he has had 6 of the top 10 seasons and 7 of the top 14 by WAR. You have to go to #15 to find a guy with 2 seasons (Mookie Betts).
– He’s had 4 of the top 7 by wRC+ and 8 of the top 20. Yelich is the 1st other guy with 2 at #21
– Because he has also been durable for the most part, Trout has 5 of the top 8 by FG Off and 8 of the top 18
– Trout, Acuna, Betts, Yelich, JoRam, Bruan and Melvin Upton are the only guys to go 25HR/30SB since 2012, but Trout is the only guy to do it 3 times
Yep. And to your final point, I think Bellinger is probably the least likely to overtake Trout, because he won’t make up the difference at the plate with speed. Bellinger set a career high with 15 steals last year. Trout has exceeded that number in 6 of 8 full seasons, including as recent as 2018, and he’s never been below 11.
Yelich has out-hit and out-ran Belly for two years now. He’s the one who can match Trout at the plate (his 2019 wRC+ of 174 would be Trout’s fifth best full season line!) and seems to be running more in MIL, as the article notes.
The only way a non-Yelich hitter jumps Trout is with a huge (35+ like Acuna this year) SB total. Belly ain’t that guy.
If your thesis is that Bellinger is dramatically improved over those past performances, I don’t disagree. However, if he suddenly reverted to 2018 form, it wouldn’t be the first time a young player teased brilliance then turned out to be merely good.
Jason Heyward was good as a rookie, slumped as a sophomore, then had his best season as a 22-year-old in 2012. Then he withered into rather bland output for a half decade before crashing. I’m not saying they’re at all comparable. Just pointing out that this happens. And that outside chance is enough of a deciding factor for me when we’re honestly projecting the two players to be basically the same.
See Bryce Harper, 2015.
“Notably, Acuna’s speed is better described as above average than elite.”
Disagree. First, by who? Scouts? Good thing we have actual numbers that show it is elite. 4.1 to first in 2018, 4.19 in 2019, basically same average speed score. 14th overall in bolts, 23rd overall in speed score. He was a bit faster in 2018 than 19 as he did lose a tad bit of ground, but stealing bases has very little to do with top end speed anyhow. But he has top end speed, regardless. The only people ahead of him either year are people that are literally only in the MLB for their speed/defense. There is likely 20 people or less in the entire MLB who are faster, and none of them have his hit tool.
I think Bellinger is the most likely to flop of the potential top picks. From March 28-May 1 he hit 425/500/867 with 14 HR in 136 PAs and then 274/382/569 the rest of the way with 33 HR in 524 PAs. He also just got worse with each month of the season indicating that maybe pitchers figured him out as his wRC+ by month was 248, 155, 141, 142, 130, 127.
That’s obviously still very good, but his wOBA and wRC+ from May 1 on would have only ranked 18th and tied for 13th for the season overall, respectively. I’m thinking more like 275/365/550 with 35 HR.
If he’s the number 2 or 3 hitter off the board that’s a pretty big disappointment.
Again, you guys are making my point from earlier in the week. It’s the difference between Brad’s two articles: Everyone is making arguments why Player X “might” be able, with a great year, to surpass Trout this year. Who’s logged on and posted: “If I get the first pick this year, I’m picking X”.
No one. That’s the greatness of Mike Trout.
Moncada would be a good sneaky bet for this
This was a very strange statement to me,
“Let’s address Bellinger first. He’ll probably post something like 45 home runs, 230 runs+RBI, 15 stolen bases, and a .300/.400/.600 slash line. That’s basically a ho-hum year from Trout.”
Trout has never had that so called ho-hum stat line for a season. In fact his career high is 45 HRs, he has never had 230 runs+RBI, and he has only done .300/.400/.600 twice.
Now I’m not saying this in disrespect to Trout as I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulled that line in 2020, but to say ot would be a ho-hum year was laughable.
You’re being a little too literal. If you adjust for league context and ignore injuries, Trout has posted equivalent or better value to that line in every season of his career (except 2011).
And yes, I’m throwing out injuries. I have Trout and Bellinger as basically equivalent injury profiles so they cancel out.
Appreciate the response.
There is one obvious player who wasn’t mentioned, but if I had to lay money on a player being able to out produce a healthy Trout he would be my choice if everything clicked (and it wouldn’t take anything that we haven’t already see him do in his career).
Steamer Predictions for 2020
Player/HR/Runs/RBI/St/BA/OBP/SLG
Trout/45/126/113/14/.297/.439/.611
My choice/41/102/102/11/.259/.383/.540
Obviously Trout is the safer bet, but we are trying to figure who could do it.
Career Highs
Player/HR/Runs/RBI/St/BA/OBP/SLG
Trout/45/129/111/49/.326/.460/.645
My 27 year old/42/118/114/21/.330/.460/.649
Yeah you’ve probably figured it out after seeing that triple slash career high which is actually a little better than Trout it’s Bryce Harper. He is only 27 years old so he should be coming into his physical prime and he has been healthier than Trout the last 5 years.
Trout is definitely the #1 overall player to me, and don’t get me wrong I wouldn’t pick Harper #2 in a draft but if I had to lay money on a player being able to out produce Trout in these 7 categories the guy with the best chance I believe is Bryce.
Sorry Brad but I find both this article and the previous one regarding Trout both poorly written. First off there’s a lot of words but not much actual statistical information. Saying that Trout does this and Acuna at 70% does that so pick trout doesn’t really prove your point one way or the other. For a site that is firmly in the prove it to me with stats and numbers category I find your analysis a bit lazy and poorly researched.
First off, how can we truly say what Trouts value is without putting a projection to it? Sure he can do this and that but let’s take your best guess of what you expect him to do with a projection. Steamers projection seem very optimistic for his counting stats and plate appearances given the recent history of injury risk. Furthermore, you should also have projections for the alternative picks to Trout as well. These would then need to run through some sort of calculation either SGP or Z-scores to get an accurate assessment of what type of value this line actually gives. I would think the best way to go about this would be to generate 25, 50, and 75th percentile projections and run them each through the calculations. Then by analyzing each player’s scores relative to the other you can make an accurate assessment of who has the most value. Once you have those numbers, you can then deep dive into why you think a player is more likely to hit some projections than others using the logic and reasoning found in the articles but without the baseline projections or where the projected values fall it’s impossible to make a good argument either way about whether Trout is the clear #1 or if he someone else might be more valuable
I used to analyze players in the manner you describe. All it does is promote a false sense of certainty without any tangible gains. The best projections are still missing too much information. It’s better from a roster construction perspective to think broadly and probabilistically about player value.
Please explain this further. All projections are missing information and give a level of uncertainty but they are very useful for discussing a point. Mike Trout has not finished as the #1 overall fantasy hitter for the last 2 years but you’re making the argument that he is the safest pick for #1. In previous years I would agree with this assumption but this year I feel the answer is much less clear cut given the disappearance of his top end speed. In the 2nd half of last year he only stole 3 bases partly because of injury but also because his attempts/PA have gone down. In their book “the process” Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell did a study showing that speed starts to decline around the age 28 season. Given his injury history and place in the lineup, he may just steal less going forward. If we only project him for 10 sbs instead of 20+ his value changes pretty dramatically and might make him a less valuable relative to someone like Yelich or Acuna this season.
Going back to projections, Trouts projection have the same amount of uncertainty as Yellich, Acuna, or Betts so I don’t see how an average projection for him can be thought of as any safer than the others. All I’m saying is that you should include these numbers in the article so we can have an apples to apples comparison between the players. By comparing the high average and low projections for each player you can get a sense for how each would have to do to be more valuable than the other. You can then use your arguments to explain why some outcomes are more likely than others.
It sounds like you want this article to be written by Jeff. Which is fine. But we’re different writers with different approaches and processes. My articles are never going to read like Jeff’s. I try my best to leave the gory details behind the scenes. Jeff’s more willing to dive into the weeds and see what shakes out.
I get what you’re saying about trying to avoid the gory details behind this but unfortunately I think it’s unavoidable. You need at little bit of math to at least set a baseline for how you value these players based on the statistics they are expected to accumulate. Once you have a baseline by saying Trout is likely to be worth approximately this while acuna and yelich are worth that then you can you can say whether you think Trout is a better bet to hit his projection or underperform them less frequently vs the other players.
Without that baseline value it becomes difficult to really quantify any argument unless the players have similar skill sets such as Trout and Bellinger. As you stated earlier, it’s easy to make a case for Trout over Bellinger b/c he basically does everything Bellinger does but better. Once you comparing players with different skillsets I.E. less power more speed it becomes very tricky. This can have a significant effect on the end value of the player, moreso than might be expected based solely on arguments because of the scarcity of stolen bases.
“He’ll probably post something like 45 home runs, 230 runs+RBI, 15 stolen bases, and a .300/.400/.600 slash line.”
Probably? He might repeat last year’s line, but it’s a stretch to say he probably will.