Who is Being Shifted More and Less Versus 2016?

In early February, I used our Splits Leaderboard to develop the latest xBABIP equation, the first of which that accounts for defensive shifts. I then talked quite a bit about defensive shifts over the years and how its usage has risen significantly since 2012. So let’s take a look at the fantasy relevant names that have faced a defensive shift far more often than last year, as well as those that have seen fewer of them during their plate appearances.

In general, a team is going to employ a shift (typically to the pull side, if the batter displays a penchant for pulling his ground balls. So on average, facing lots of shifts is probably going to hurt one’s BABIP. Last year, the percentage of balls in play in which teams employed the shift was 24.1%. This year, that mark is up again, but only slightly to 25.5%. It suggests that we have peaked.

So let’s begin with the hitters that have faced the shift much more frequently than last year:

I didn’t include BABIP in each year because there is much more that goes into BABIP than shifts and I fear that you would be blaming the shift for any BABIP decline, when that isn’t necessarily the case. Furthermore, the sample size is still tiny for BABIP purposes, so luck still plays a large role.

Woah, hold your horses. Who’s atop the list? None other than the most interest player alive — Ryan Schimpf! About a month ago I discussed all the reasons he’s enjoying a season on the extremes once again, and little did I know, he was also living on the extremes of the shift spectrum. No, he’s not going to finish with a BABIP in the mid-.100 range, but man is he making it really difficult on himself. The good news, if there is any, is that he so infrequently hits a ground ball that facing a shift isn’t going to be a big deal. His BABIP problems stem from all those fly balls and pop-ups, not pulled grounders hit into the shift.

Looks like Rougned Odor’s got some adjusting to do.

Andrew Benintendi was a potential five category contributor and has posted sky high BABIPs in the minors several times. But the league is shifting him often, which is likely partially to blame for his sub-.300 BABIP.

It’s interesting to see Jose Bautista’s name here because he’s known to always pull his fly balls, not necessarily his grounders. Sure enough, if you check his splits, he has always pulled his grounders, but the league has never shifted against him more than 40% of the time. I wonder what made teams decide to shift him even more frequently. Whatever the reason, it’s bad for his BABIP.

Carlos Santana was always a low BABIP/batting average guy who gains enormous value in OBP leagues thanks to his inflated walk rate. But even more shifts could mean an even lower batting average, which is unacceptable having hit just six homers so far.

And now let’s check in on some of the hitters who are seeing fewer shifts:

Raise your hand if you had Jason Castro as the first fantasy relevant name that has seen the biggest decline in shifts this year. What’s interesting here is that he saw his shifts faced percentage just about double from 2015 to 2016, so now the league is simply dropping back to where it was two years ago.

It’s wonderful that Jorge Soler is rarely getting shifted now, but it’s not like he’s doing anything at the plate, shift or no shift. A .247 wOBA and sad .115 ISO are not what the Royals and fantasy owners were hoping for. It’s a smaller than usual sample here because injuries have limited him to just 61 plate appearances, but man have those exciting 97 plate appearances back in 2014 seem like forever ago.

As if Joey Votto needed any other factors to increase his BABIP potential. He already owns a pristine batted ball profile, so facing fewer shifts is like the rich getting richer.