Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 17)

I’m now back from a nice vacation with my two kids and it is now time to finish the season strong. Many of the drops listed below make sense because they were headed to and from the minors or the IL. A few names do stick out as being decent options for adds (e.g. Zimmer and Brubaker).

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.

Hitters

Eli White (10): He’s on pace for 18 HR and 9 SB over a full season. The problem is that he has not been a good hitter (30% K%, .590 OPS). The shift (50% Pull%) is just eating him up (.255 OPS vs shift, .742 OPS vs no shift). There is a chance he might end up being OK, but he needs to change his batted ball profile.

Miguel Andújar (10): On the IL and just had a setback. He’s tough to keep rostered for near replacement-level production.

Leury García (10): While he’s been playing every day (started 16 of 18 games), he just has 3 HR, 2 SB, and a .246 AVG in 300 PA.

Steven Duggar (10): In six games, the Giants face three lefties, so he’ll start those games on the bench. Even though he’s been OK (7 HR, .284 AVG, .843 OPS), it is nearly impossible to roster a part-time player.

Oscar Mercado (10): At least he’s hitting better than he did in 2020 (.348 OPS vs .670), but he’s still a disappointment compared to 2019. Also, he has only started in six of the last 10 games. Don’t completely dismiss him. In just 59 PA, he does have three steals, so he could be added later when all a manager needs is stolen bases.

Victor Robles (9): He’s mirroring his 2020 production (.608 OPS vs .614 OPS) with a low GB% (35% vs 36%) and high pull rate (50% vs 49%). He’s a low-power (sub-.100 ISO) speedster who is trying to power the ball out. With his legs, there is no reason he should have sub-.300 BABIP (.275). He’s not Juan Soto and until he accepts that fact, he is only a streamer for possibly a few steals.

Gavin Lux (9): Underperforming (.656 OPS) and on the IL. Major disappointment.

Travis Jankowski (9): He’s just a righty smasher (career .904 OPS vs RHP, .473 vs LHP), so isn’t playable every week. And to completely tank his values, he’s now on the COVID IL.

Jake Burger (9): Even though he’s hitting (.807 OPS), he’s not starting (five of last 10 games). The playing time is going to tighten up even more with Eloy Jiménez coming off the IL.

John Hicks (9): Designated for assignment even though he had a .935 OPS and 4 HR in 31 PA.

Yonathan Daza (8): He is on the COVID IL and Colorado is on the road. Remains an every other week play when at home.

Ryan Jeffers (8): He will start losing playing time with Mitch Garver off the IL.

Roberto Pérez (8): Some power (6 HR ins 115 PA), but is struggling otherwise (.629 OPS, .153 AVG). Just about any other regular catcher is a better option.

Christian Arroyo (7): He was hitting OK (.271 AVG, 6 HR, 1 SB) before going on the IL (hamstring).

Bobby Dalbec (7): He’s really struggled in July (.478 OPS, .656 OPS on the season) and has only started in five of the last 10 games.

Bradley Zimmer (7): Besides missing some time for illness, he’s started every game since the All-Star break. During that time, he’s hitting .303/.324/.545 with 2 HR and 1 SB in 34 PA. Most of the gains are from a .381 BABIP during that time. He’s at least a replacement-level outfielder especially for those teams that need a bit of speed.

Taylor Walls (7): While he was able to steal three bases, he wasn’t really hitting (.643 OPS) so he was demoted to AAA.

Zack Collins (7): Yasmani Grandal has taken over Collins’s body and now Collins is going with Grandal’s all-walk/power approach (.217/.337/.371).

Starters

JT Brubaker (10): On the surface, the drop seems a little reactionary. He has posted an 8.20 ERA in July (vs MIL, NYM x2, SFG) boosted up by a 3.9 HR/9 (4.00 xFIP, 7.00 FIP). I tried to find out if he go adversely affected by the sticky stuff crackdown, but his spin is stable to even up a little bit.

On the positive side, he has a second-half 12.9 K/9 that was just an 8.9 K/9 in the first half. The jump is from throwing his four-seamer (6% SwStr%) and Curve (13% SwStr%) more and his sinker (4% SwStr%) fewer times. The increased use of the four-seamer could be leading to his high home run rate (44% FB%, 27% HR/FB%).

While there is a ton going on, I will just revert back to his 18.6 K-BB% that ranks 34th among starters (min 90 IP). Basically, he’s a #3 starter in a 15-team league and now available in a quarter of Main Event leagues.

Stephen Strasburg (10): It’s just been too many setbacks and an unknown timeline to roster him for the last two months.

Michael Wacha (9): He was likely rostered for his Baltimore start where he allowed 3 R, 2 K, and 0 BB in 5 IP. If he could have repeated his 2020 stats, he’d be more interesting but his strikeouts are down (9.8 K/9 to 7.7 K/9) and his walks are up (1.9 BB/9 to 2.4 BB/9).

Matthew Boyd (8): He’s been on the IL for a while and won’t begin a rehab start for a couple more weeks.

Alec Mills (8): Streamed for a two-start week (0 W, 3 ER, 7 K, and 1.33 WHIP in 9 IP) versus Arizona and St. Louis. He has been barely replacement level (1.40 WHIP, 4.55 ERA) all season.

Spencer Turnbull (8): Out for the season with Tommy John surgery.

Jordan Holloway (8): The two-pitch (fastball-slider) pitcher is posting some stats that are interesting (1.25 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, and 3.21 ERA) but then there is the 5.9 BB/9 looming in the background. He’s been able to limit the hits with a .213 BABIP and a 0.3 HR/9. They are both likely being suppressed because he barely sees a lineup a second time by averaging just 2.8 IP/G. With just the two pitches, he’s performed worse the second time through the order. As a starter, he has a 6.35 ERA the first TTO and a 13.5 ERA the second time. As a reliever, it’s a 0.00 ERA the first time and a 2.84 ERA the second time.

Pablo López (8): A rotator cuff strain has him sidelined for most of the rest of the season.

Josh Fleming (7): Here are his strikeout totals from his last four “starts”: 1, 1, 2, 2 (14.2 IP). He has a 7.23 xFIP in the second half while it was at 3.98 in the first half. Overall, he’s been fine (4.07 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 7 W), but he just has to be used in a two-start week or a fantasy manager will quickly fall behind in strikeouts.

Relievers

Dinelson Lamet (8): Still on the IL and will likely be used as a multi-inning reliever when he returns.

Cole Sulser (7): Looked to be the closer but now Dillon Tate is in the mix. There is a chance he’ll be the closer in a week or completely out of the picture.

Bailey Falter (7): He looked like he could be in line for Saves with the Phillies, but had to go on the COVID-IL.

Zack Britton (7): He’s either been on the IL (only 7.1 IP) or struggling (7.36 ERA and 1.77 WHIP). There is no reason to roster a bad reliever.