White Sox Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

One of the position groups with sneaky potential this season is the rotation of the White Sox. Not only is the unit anchored by a pair of stalwart lefties in Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, but the mid- to back-end of the rotation is filled with potential high-ceiling options — even if they do have some question marks.

As a team the White Sox ranked firmly in the middle of the pack in starter ERA last year at 4.12. That mark was seventh among 15 AL teams, though the six ahead of the Sox were in a different class, one could argue. The next ERA up the list was the Angels at 3.98, while the Twins and Mariners each trailed the Sox by five points or less. Essentially, in terms of raw production they were far closer to the bottom one-third than the top.

But in terms of secondary stats, the White Sox were pretty dang good. They ranked fourth in FIP (3.82), fifth in xFIP (3.87) and threw more innings than any other team. As a result, they accrued an AL-best total of 17.4 WAR — more than a full win better than runner up Houston (16.0). The Pale Hose rotation was among the best at striking opposing hitters out (8.3 K/9, third), didn’t walk anyone and for the most part kept the ball in the ballpark.

Most of the key cogs from a season ago are back, with one notable omission: Jeff Samardzija, who jumped ship for the NL with the Giants. Replacing Samardzija’s nearly 5.00 ERA could seem easy on the surface, but he threw a team-high 214 innings. That’s less easy to replace.

As of this writing, the depth chart would seem to look like this in the rotation:

Sale
Quintana
Carlos Rodon
John Danks

Danks is about as boring as they come. He hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2010, or even a FIP below that mark since 2011. Yet for the last three years — and for the last time THIS year — he’ll make an eight-figure salary, all but securing his spot in the rotation. Rodon is ultra interesting. He fanned a batter per inning in nearly 140 innings last year, and kept his ERA under 4.00. Walks were always going to be an issue — 4.6 per 9 last year — but he closed the season on a relatively strong run. From Aug. 1 on, Rodon had a 2.28 ERA in 59.1 innings with a 52-23 K/BB ratio. You can work with that.

The No. 5 spot in the rotation was previously slated for Erik Johnson, who had his moments of brilliance and horror in a cup of coffee with a 3.34 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 35 innings, but a 5.93 FIP and 4.4 BB/9. Ostensibly, it’ll be his job to bide time in Charlotte until the Sox can do something, anything with Danks, or one of the others gets hurt. Obviously there’s a preferred path here, but as of now, it looks like Johnson will be on the outside looking in on the rotation, either in Triple-A or the bullpen.

The No. 5 spot, or maybe the No. 4 depending on how Robin Ventura hands things out, will go to newly-acquired righty Mat Latos. Yours truly openly wondered about a week ago on Twitter how Latos was still unemployed, and that was met with a chorus of boos (or was it booze?) based on Latos’ reputation of being a tough guy to handle and the fact that he limped down the stretch of 2015 — a season with in which he played for three teams. Latos’ season started innocently enough in Miami — well, uh, as much as is possible with the Marlins — where he pitched decently well with peripherals (3.41 FIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.25 WHIP) but not results (4.48 ERA).

The wheels came off after Latos traveled westward, first with the Dodgers and finally with the Halos. Latos had a post-Marlins ERA of 6.43, with just one more strikeout (21) than earned runs (20) in 28 innings pitched. Batters pinged him to the tune of a .315/.350/.541 line, an 891 OPS that greatly exceeds his .694 mark with the Fish.

So what changed? What are the odds Latos can get back to good? Well even if they aren’t high, neither was the cost. Latos signed a one-year, $3 million deal with incentives he’s got no chance of reaching, like winning the MVP or Cy Young award. It’s a one-year, behave-yourself deal for a guy who desperately needs to do just that. Now is Chicago the right place to do that? That remains to be seen. If he can roll grounders at a league average rate — something he’s basically done his whole career — and keep it in the ballpark (0.8 HR/9), I don’t see much of a downside here. Then again, maybe Johnson lights Charlotte on fire and Latos pitches his way out of the league. Either way, there’s an insurance policy here.

The Pale Hose bullpen was slightly better than average, finishing sixth in the AL in ERA (3.67) and K/9 (8.6), with the league’s most grounders but also the fifth-most walks. The back-end remains intact, led by star closer David Robertson, whose ERA was a bit unsightly, but otherwise was every bit as good as his Yankees days. He also added a wrinkle — he cut his walk rate almost in half. Opposing batters hit just .196/.241/.332 off Robertson in 2015 — a .573 OPS that was a slight improvement from 2014 (.588). He also cleaned up his issues with righties a bit, including a ridiculous 50-4 K/BB rate against them. Will the bridge be steady? That remains to be seen, but on this side, everything is good.

The other names on the back end are familiar: Jake Petricka, Zach Duke, Zach Putnam, Dan Jennings and Nate Jones. Matt Albers is back after a resurgent age-32 season (1.21 ERA), and there are other interesting names like Scott Carroll. Jones is interesting on the basis of fanning 12.8 batters per 9 in his short big league stint. One name that wasn’t mentioned that’ll be worth watching is Jacob Turner, who is on the comeback trail after injuries and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since posting a 6.13 ERA as a swingman between the Marlins and Cubs in 2014. He’s always been long on stuff and short on results, but if he can reach 94-95 in short bursts he might be sneaky good as a long guy with potential to climb up the ladder.

All told, I think this has potential to be a better unit than last year. Maybe not by much, but with an offense bolstered by the addition of Todd Frazier, this is one of my sneakier picks to contend in the AL in 2016.