The Daily Grind: Yahoo Exploit, Moore, Bartolo, Zito, Reds

Agenda

1. The Yahoo Innings Exploit
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Matz, Zito, Cron, Reds
6. Factor Grid

1. The Yahoo Innings Exploit

This is your yearly reminder about the Yahoo innings exploit. Some other platforms have similar exploits. Be sure to explore what is and isn’t allowed before somebody beats you on a technicality.

In Yahoo leagues with an innings cap – i.e. most roto leagues – it’s possible to blast way beyond the threshold. The key is to lump about 60 innings into one final orgy of pitching. To do that, you’ll need to pick up nine guys starting on the same day. If your league doesn’t have the standard nine pitching slots, then just do the maximum. And don’t be discouraged by those pesky RP slots. Find SP/RP eligible hurlers for those.

The benefits of the tactic are obvious. More innings means more strikeouts and (hopefully) more wins. The drawbacks are equally obvious. You’re pulling the dregs of a September day. Those are some dregsy dregs. You’ll be lucky to earn a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the day. You’ll probably push your seasonal rates up a point or two by using the exploit.

Make sure the negative effects don’t outweigh the positive. That can be achieved by simply doing some basic math and evaluating your competitor’s options. One year, I baited my rival into using the exploit on the last day of the season AFTER I took the best pitchers. Then I sat the non-aces at the last minute and made up a .01 deficit in WHIP. It wasn’t the decisive point, but it did give me some much desired breathing room.

2. Daily DFS – Moore, Bartolo

Yesterday’s Grind

We have a 15 game main slate tonight. Have I ever told you I had days like this? Give me a seven or eight game evening any time. A full slate makes for a random evening. Do pay attention to the rain tonight. As much as I hate full contests, I looooove rainy days.

Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner headline the evening. And if they sound enticing to you, pause to realize they are opposite one another. I’m not paying $13,000 for a coin flip. Other aces include Cole Hamels versus the Tigers, Johnny Cueto at the White Sox, and Tyson Ross against the Brewers.

Matt Moore is your special bargain of the day, and boy do I hate to admit it. The lefty’s command is a serious problem, and it makes every start an adventure. He’s silenced the Orioles and Red Sox over his last two outings. This time, he’ll face fellow southpaw Adam Conley and the Marlins. Remember, the Rays mash lefties. The Marlins don’t mash anybody. Seven innings, a win, and nine strikeouts seems like a reasonable goal to me.

The reliable version of Moore goes by the name Bartolo Colon. Hint, he’s the best athlete on the field. Colon can be described as the polar opposite of Moore (in truth, the opposite of Moore is probably an unpopular, slothful internet troll). The Mets righty will toss against the lowly Phillies. Philadelphia has a three game lead in the race for last place. Colon faced them twice in late August, combining for 15 shutout innings, nine hits allowed, and 17 strikeouts.

Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman are also worth a try tonight. Ray will face a Rockies lineup that can’t hit lefties. Stroman is coming off a couple strong outings against good offensive teams.

Stack Targets: Christian Bergman, David Buchanan, Matt Wisler, Jorge Lopez, Josh Smith, Nick Tropeano, Tanner Roark, Vidal Nuno, Daniel Norris, Chris Bassitt, Conley

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

It’s one of the longest lists of the year. My favorites:

C.J. Cron, Kole Calhoun, Chris Iannetta, Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Erick Aybar v Chris Bassitt
Yasmany Tomas v Christian Bergman
Joey Votto, Brayan Pena v Dan Haren
Seth Smith, Kyle Seager v Mike Fiers
Marlon Byrd v Clayton Kershaw (!!!)
Ben Revere, Russell Martin v Miguel Gonzalez
George Springer, Hank Conger, Jake Marisnick, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa v Vidal Nuno

I don’t mind Byrd’s matchup with Kershaw, but he’s definitely not my first pick from this crowd.

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim says Kershaw has a 48 percent chance to win. Bumgarner is listed with a 32 percent chance. I think it’s much closer to a coin flip. Ray is the fourth ranked starter opposite the Rockies. I don’t disagree with the outputs. Nicholas Tropeano is listed seventh (right ahead of Moore). It’s his 48 percent chance for a win that is carrying his projection. I see more downside than upside.

Sometimes I wonder about the inputs to SaberSim. Votto is the top listed hitter, and he also has a favorable GB/FB split tonight. Then I scan down to find Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier listed 10th and 12th respectively. I like Votto, but I disagree with the other pair. They’re rosterable because they are affordable. They aren’t top 15 hitters tonight.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Matz, Zito, Cron, Reds

Pitchers to Start: Steven Matz is 55 percent owned on Yahoo. If he happens to be available to you, he should earn a near-automatic victory against Alec Asher and the Phillies.

Also consider: Drew Smyly

Pitchers to Exploit: Soft-tossing southpaw Barry Zito will probably be pummeled by the Angels tomorrow. He’s a fly ball pitcher, and you may notice the volume of Angels who appear on the FB/GB list. The Giants skunked Zito last week with six hits, four runs, and a walk over two innings.

Also consider: Tyler Lyons, Kevin Gausman, Wade Miley, Asher, Williams Perez, Matt Boyd

Hitters (power): C.J. Cron is easily my top pick for a home run tomorrow. And you have a lot of options on the wire. Cron is hitting .301/.338/.545 since he was recalled from the minors on June 29. He’s popped 15 home runs over 264 plate appearances. That’s a 37 homer pace over a full season. It’s too bad he struggled through the first month and a half.

Also consider: Eugenio Suarez, Chase Utley, Andre Ethier, Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau, Jonny Gomes, Mike Napoli, John Jaso, Chris Coghlan, Darin Ruf, Aaron Altherr, Michael Conforto, Kelly Johnson, Chris Young

Hitters (speed): It’s a Jon Lester day. The Reds have a few solid base runners like Suarez, Jason Bourgeois, and Brandon Phillips. If they get on base, they should take a base or two. Gerrit Cole is also pitching today. The Cardinals could run wild as a result.

Also consider: Alejandro De Aza, Ender Inciarte, Delino DeShields, Elvis Andrus, Aybar

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Six games are postponement risks tonight. The least likely to be rained out is the New York game. The current weather report says they won’t be playing any baseball in Pittsburgh tonight. Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Cleveland have between a 60 and 80 percent chance for rain or storms throughout the entire evening. It wouldn’t shock me if five of the six were cancelled.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.