What We Can Learn From Dropping Robbie Ray?

While going through my Tout Wars league’s transactions, I noticed Robbie Ray was released. While I felt Ray’s price was too high for me during draft season, my gut assumed he should still be rostered. My head said to dive in and find the reason for cutting a seemingly valuable resource. Today, I’ll examine how the actual and perceived values differ and how these moves can help make future decisions.

To start with, here is a quick dive into how Ray has done this season and spoiler alert… it’s not pretty. Even though his 11.7 K/9 is the 5th highest (min 80 IP), his 5.0 BB/9  is also the 5th highest. The walks, along with his 4.73 ERA, are tough to absorb. Additionally, his ERA is about a run higher than his xFIP and SIERA. The 26-year-old lefty has always been hittable with a career .316 BABIP and 1.2 HR/9.

The biggest issue for Ray is those walks. The change in his control can reasonably be attributed to a strained oblique which cost him almost all of May and June. After coming back, his walk rate improved but has since ballooned this August.

Month: BB/9
Apr: 5.5
June: 3.0
July: 3.9
Aug: 6.9

The Diamondbacks and Ray are trying to take steps to solve the problem.

Ray and pitching coach Mike Butcher had been working to keep the lefty more in a straight line on his delivery, so that his plant leg faces directly toward home plate when it lands. It prevents him from throwing across his body.

“Just a small change like that makes a huge difference,” Ray said. “It honestly feels fine either way, but just the result of the pitch isn’t exactly where I want it to be when I close myself off.”
….
“The biggest thing that he is working on right now is the consistency and command and the consistency of his pitches,” Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said.

So, a change may be coming but it usually takes two to three games according to Brian Bannister. While Ray only allowed one run in the aforementioned start, he still walked four batters in five innings.

Ray has been trying to turn a corner all year, but he can’t get away from the walks. I feel he’s still dealing with the oblique issue, but he wants to ‘help’ his team. Even if he does turn it around, his owners will only have a couple starts left until the season’s end.

After digging into Ray’s profile, I felt like a hypocrite. Over a month ago, I dropped Danny Duffy as I saw no signs of him helping my team. I was fine in strikeouts, but the walks and subsequent runs allowed were just killing my ratios. His ~4.0 BB/9 was just a drag and his near 5.00 ERA matched his ERA estimators. I just thought to myself who would roster such a player and just let him go.

At Baseball Prospectus, Zach Steinhorn, who is in my league, writes a weekly review of the Tout Wars moves and he said the following about me dropping Duffy:

Seeing Duffy’s name in the waiver wire pool did seem strange being that he was widely viewed as a quality mid-rotation starter in mixed leagues heading into the season.

It was almost the same reaction I had with Ray. If an owner releases a perceived asset, especially one they spent preseason resources on, they’ve usually done their homework.

Another example I’ve observed over the years is a week after two owners make a trade, a player or two get immediately dropped. Some owners make trades knowing that one part is just baggage to help balance a roster. Most of the time, the dropped player was highly touted before the season, but his value dropped from a loss of production and/or playing time.

Owners trading assets have been following the droppers closely and have a better idea of their true value. The deeper player knowledge doesn’t just occur with trades but also with waiver wire drops. The owner must get over the suck costs, accept defeat, and move past the player.

This thought process has got me thinking that too much emphasis is put on who to add and maybe more needs to be put on who to drop. Especially, players who came into the season with lofty expectations and/or costs. Which players are owners are moving past and why?

I’m going to give the experiment a try in my next article and look at the most dropped players. I might weight the drops on how much the decision is based on the player’s current talent, sunk cost, and/or snap judgment.