Week Five FAAB Projections (4/20/19)

April 20, 2019

I believe there are some diamonds in the rough available this week. It’s tough to know who exactly. Will Michael Chavis grab Bostons second base job? Is Scott Kingery going to play full time? Will one of Robert Stephenson, Trevor Hildenberger, Ryan Pressly or Diego Castilla get Saves? Maybe one or two.

As usual, I use ownership rates from CBS since some of their leagues are quickdraw leagues where players can be picked up at any time. The FAAB estimates are based off 15-team mixed NFBC leagues with $1000 FAAB. First, Here are the pitchers who were owned in fewer than 50% of leagues and have seen the highest jumps in ownership.

Pitcher FAAB Estimates

Name	Previous Ownership%	Current Ownership%	Change%	Cost
Erik Swanson SP \| SEA	1%	10%	9%	$27
Nick Anderson RP \| MIA	1%	5%	4%	$44
Robert Stephenson SP \| CIN	1%	4%	3%	$44
Jerad Eickhoff RP \| PHI	2%	18%	16%	$34
Trevor Hildenberger RP \| MIN	2%	10%	8%	$48
Brandon Brennan SP \| SEA	2%	6%	4%	$44
Antonio Senzatela SP \| COL	3%	10%	7%	$26
Homer Bailey SP \| KC	5%	15%	10%	$28
Martin Perez SP \| MIN	5%	12%	7%	$26
Jeremy Hellickson SP \| WAS	10%	19%	9%	$28
John Gant SP \| STL	10%	19%	9%	$28
Roenis Elias RP \| SEA	11%	27%	16%	$66
Jorge Lopez RP \| KC	11%	16%	5%	$26
Hector Neris RP \| PHI	15%	24%	9%	$52
Lance Lynn SP \| TEX	15%	24%	9%	$28
Zach Davies SP \| MIL	17%	45%	28%	$57
Jordan Lyles RP \| PIT	17%	40%	23%	$47
Tyler Mahle SP \| CIN	20%	27%	7%	$28
Ryan Pressly RP \| HOU	21%	25%	4%	$47
CC Sabathia SP \| NYY	22%	35%	13%	$33
Diego Castillo RP \| TB	24%	28%	4%	$47
Jeff Samardzija SP \| SF	26%	36%	10%	$31
Brett Anderson SP \| OAK	29%	48%	19%	$43
Mike Soroka SP \| ATL	31%	46%	15%	$38
A.J. Minter RP \| ATL	33%	54%	21%	$47
Trevor Cahill SP \| LAA	33%	43%	10%	$33
Blake Parker RP \| MIN	34%	46%	12%	$63
Nick Margevicius SP \| SD	35%	52%	17%	$41
Touki Toussaint SP \| ATL	38%	74%	36%	$84
Wade Miley SP \| HOU	41%	47%	6%	$31
Jeremy Jeffress RP \| MIL	42%	48%	6%	$56
Frankie Montas SP \| OAK	43%	65%	22%	$52
Luke Weaver SP \| ARI	43%	58%	15%	$41
Mike Minor SP \| TEX	50%	75%	25%	$61

Notes:

If any player has any kind of popularity, it’ll likely take a $25 bid to roster them.
Roenis Elias has four Saves this season and the last two for Seattle. He just might have the closer’s role right now.
Owners are speculating that Trey Hildenberger will take over has the Twins closer with 14.3 K/9 and 0.00 ERA. The sub-90 mph fastball is probably the biggest reason he hasn’t been given the opportunity this season.
Some owners must have already started celebrating 4/20 picking up Hellickson with a two-start week with the first at Colorado. Pass (the fat one).
John Gant? While he has a 0.00 ERA, all his ERA estimators are at over 4.00.
Hector Neris is a great Saves spec and should be reasonably priced.
He’s not listed but Addison Russ ell is about to begin his rehab assignment after his suspension. I’m not sure how much he’ll with Daniel Descalso posting a .876 OPS. Russell’s career high was .738. Maybe he’ll come back as a utility bat.

And now the hitters

Hitter FAAB Estimates

Name	Previous Ownership%	Current Ownership%	Change%	Cost
Austin Dean LF \| MIA	1%	3%	2%	$26
Melky Cabrera RF \| PIT	2%	5%	3%	$26
Howie Kendrick 2B \| WAS	4%	10%	6%	$29
Hunter Dozier 1B \| KC	5%	40%	35%	$127
Renato Nunez 3B \| BAL	5%	11%	6%	$29
David Fletcher 2B \| LAA	5%	8%	3%	$27
Derek Dietrich LF \| CIN	5%	7%	2%	$26
Carlos Gonzalez RF \| CLE	8%	11%	3%	$27
Michael Chavis 3B \| BOS	9%	20%	11%	$38
Dwight Smith LF \| BAL	10%	33%	23%	$74
Scott Kingery SS \| PHI	11%	31%	20%	$64
Christian Vazquez C \| BOS	11%	17%	6%	$31
Jason Kipnis 2B \| CLE	11%	14%	3%	$28
Leury Garcia LF \| CHW	12%	18%	6%	$31
Mitch Garver C \| MIN	16%	34%	18%	$61
Daniel Descalso 2B \| CHC	17%	20%	3%	$30
Manuel Margot CF \| SD	18%	25%	7%	$36
Kevin Pillar CF \| SF	18%	23%	5%	$33
Delino DeShields CF \| TEX	18%	22%	4%	$32
Carter Kieboom SS \| WAS	19%	24%	5%	$34
Avisail Garcia RF \| TB	21%	28%	7%	$38
Freddy Galvis SS \| TOR	27%	44%	17%	$67
Josh Phegley C \| OAK	32%	66%	34%	$154
Mitch Moreland 1B \| BOS	32%	38%	6%	$44
Chad Pinder LF \| OAK	32%	37%	5%	$43
Alex Verdugo RF \| LAD	35%	43%	8%	$51
Alex Gordon LF \| KC	40%	64%	24%	$111
Jonathan Lucroy C \| LAA	41%	45%	4%	$49
Kevin Kiermaier CF \| TB	43%	48%	5%	$53
Christian Walker 1B \| ARI	44%	52%	8%	$60
Brandon Lowe 2B \| TB	46%	71%	25%	$125
Franmil Reyes RF \| SD	47%	55%	8%	$64

Notes

If available in a league, Hunter Dozier, Josh Phegley, and Alex Gordon will bring a hefty price.
Dwight Smith Jr. is getting some attention with his three homers and steals. While it’s unlikely for the production to continue, he’s a must own in all formats in the small instance he does keep it up.
Jason Kipnis is coming off the DL and batting high in the Indians lineup.
The Red Sox promoted Michael Chavis to the majors and usually, highly touted prospects are popular, but not in this instance. I wonder if the lineup seems loaded but the three second basemen are on the IL. Also, Rafael Devers has just a .665 OPS which is near replacement level.
Scott Kingery (1.176 OPS) has been playing short with Jean Segura on the IL, hence the demand.

And for reference, here are the week-five bids from 2018 and last week.

2018 Week Five FAAB Bids

Name	Count	AVG
Mac Williamson	32	$58
JaCoby Jones	31	$51
Trevor Cahill	31	$47
Mark Canha	26	$24
Albert Almora	21	$122
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	20	$59
Darren O’Day	19	$40
Chad Bettis	19	$29
Junior Guerra	18	$50
Mitch Moreland	16	$25
Matt Wisler	16	$20
Brad Miller	15	$15
Jeremy Hellickson	14	$24
Jedd Gyorko	13	$15
Tyler Anderson	13	$14
Joe Jimenez	13	$30
Harrison Bader	13	$19
Matthew Boyd	11	$36
Steve Pearce	10	$19
Ryan Flaherty	10	$16
Tyler Flowers	10	$31
Ben Gamel	10	$21
Marco Gonzales	9	$26
Jason Vargas	9	$21
Daniel Robertson	9	$9
Dan Straily	9	$29
Adam Frazier	9	$16
Max Stassi	8	$7
Collin McHugh	7	$16
Luke Maile	7	$8
Robert Gsellman	7	$18
Joey Wendle	7	$21
Santiago Casilla	7	$11
Luis Valbuena	7	$16
Tyler Austin	6	$20
J.P. Crawford	6	$16
Jarlin Garcia	6	$24
Dixon Machado	6	$12
Amir Garrett	6	$10
Abraham Almonte	6	$9
Joe Musgrove	6	$28
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	6	$14
Joc Pederson	6	$12
Jason Heyward	6	$37
Miguel Rojas	6	$9
Adam Ottavino	5	$38
Tony Watson	5	$8
Bartolo Colon	5	$15
Chad Kuhl	5	$21
Denard Span	5	$46
Ryan McMahon	5	$21
Victor Martinez	5	$18
Ronald Guzman	5	$29
Daniel Mengden	5	$61
Andrew Cashner	5	$10
Jesus Aguilar	5	$44

2019 Week Four FAAB Bids

Name	Avg Cost	Leagues
Jordan Lyles	$42	32
Hunter Dozier	$63	31
Josh Phegley	$37	29
Touki Toussaint	$155	26
Austin Dean	$35	22
Trevor Hildenberger	$33	21
Zach Davies	$19	20
Clay Buchholz	$24	19
CC Sabathia	$56	18
Jason Kipnis	$34	18
Melky Cabrera	$21	18
Nick Anderson	$9	18
Wily Peralta	$49	18
Renato Nunez	$36	17
Lance Lynn	$30	15
Neil Walker	$8	15
David Fletcher	$18	14
Daniel Descalso	$20	13
Colin Moran	$11	12
Howie Kendrick	$16	12
Tyson Ross	$7	12
Brian Goodwin	$11	11
Chris Owings	$17	11
JaCoby Jones	$18	11
Martin Perez	$30	11
Brett Anderson	$13	10
Derek Dietrich	$15	10
Homer Bailey	$15	10
Carlos Gonzalez	$29	9
Daniel Vogelbach	$340	9
Ervin Santana	$12	9
Jeremy Hellickson	$33	9
Luis Urias	$12	9
Roenis Elias	$23	9
Austin Romine	$5	8
Christian Vazquez	$8	8
Dwight Smith Jr.	$59	8
Jarrod Dyson	$33	8
Jorge Lopez	$6	8
Mike Leake	$24	8
Mitch Garver	$35	8
Richard Lovelady	$22	8
Adam Wainwright	$24	7
Ivan Nova	$28	7
Jesus Luzardo	$14	7
Justin Bour	$36	7
Robbie Grossman	$18	7
Billy McKinney	$10	6
Brian McCann	$15	6
Erik Swanson	$8	6
J.D. Davis	$21	6
Jimmy Nelson	$37	6
Ryan Yarbrough	$20	6
Scott Kingery	$32	6
Chris Davis	$7	5
Joey Wendle	$42	5
Lucas Giolito	$23	5
Michael A. Taylor	$21	5
Mike Fiers	$18	5
Mike Soroka	$95	5
Nick Margevicius	$49	5
Raimel Tapia	$27	5
Tyler Mahle	$40	5