Week 4 Mixed League FAAB Estimates
It is a bi-polar week for possible FAAB bids. Not one arm stands out as a must bid. On the hitting side, a few wallet busters exist with some possible fierce bidding. I’ll start with the hitters.
I’m a little under the weather so I provide as much information as possible and owners can make their own estimates. I might add some more analysis tomorrow morning.
As usual, I utilize CBS’s ownership rates to find potential movers since CBS allows daily pickups. The projected costs are for the 15-team, 30-player roster NFBC Main Event teams. Individual owners are going to need to adjust the values to their own league size and tendencies.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Phegley C | OAK | 1% | 26% | 25% | $76 |
| Derek Dietrich LF | CIN | 2% | 5% | 3% | $27 |
| J.D. Davis 3B | NYM | 3% | 12% | 9% | $33 |
| Daniel Vogelbach 1B | SEA | 4% | 60% | 56% | $281 |
| Leury Garcia LF | CHW | 5% | 12% | 7% | $31 |
| Freddy Galvis SS | TOR | 8% | 27% | 19% | $59 |
| Brian Goodwin CF | LAA | 9% | 12% | 3% | $28 |
| Mitch Garver C | MIN | 10% | 15% | 5% | $30 |
| Daniel Descalso 2B | CHC | 13% | 17% | 4% | $30 |
| Orlando Arcia SS | MIL | 13% | 16% | 3% | $29 |
| Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS | 15% | 30% | 15% | $51 |
| Jason Heyward RF | CHC | 17% | 59% | 42% | $186 |
| Clint Frazier LF | NYY | 18% | 51% | 33% | $130 |
| Chad Pinder LF | OAK | 18% | 30% | 12% | $46 |
| Alex Gordon LF | KC | 19% | 36% | 17% | $60 |
| Nick Ahmed SS | ARI | 19% | 33% | 14% | $51 |
| Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB | 28% | 42% | 14% | $59 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 30% | 39% | 9% | $49 |
| Alex Verdugo RF | LAD | 31% | 36% | 5% | $42 |
| Brandon Belt 1B | SF | 33% | 40% | 7% | $47 |
| Starlin Castro 2B | MIA | 34% | 37% | 3% | $42 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B | TB | 36% | 42% | 6% | $48 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 37% | 50% | 13% | $66 |
| Yandy Diaz 3B | TB | 38% | 65% | 27% | $124 |
| Dansby Swanson SS | ATL | 40% | 76% | 36% | $180 |
| Ramon Laureano CF | OAK | 43% | 46% | 3% | $50 |
| Hunter Renfroe LF | SD | 50% | 60% | 10% | $73 |
Dan Vogelbach: Get ready to open the wallets. I could see some owners spend up to 50% of their budget if available. In 39 PA he has hit six homers with a .400/.513/1.133 slash line. It’s going to be nuts.
Jason Heyward: I may have been wrong about Heyward. Before a trip Milwaukee last week, he just had a .558 OPS but went off in Miller Park with a 2.060 OPS and three homers. I thought he might fall back to earth but had a 1.457 OPS against the Pirates. While his wOBA is 66 points higher than his xwOBA, it’s still a reasonable .393. While breaking the bank on Heyward may not be ideal, he won’t be cheap.
Clint Frazier: A .333/.353/.633 slash line in 34 PA means the demand will remain in leagues where he’s available. While I believe Frazier can be useful for a few weeks, he could head to the bench when the other Yankee outfielders get healthy.
Freddy Galvis: The Toronto shortstop is leading off. If owners wanted him on the cheap, they are a week late.
Josh Phegley: The career .227 hitter is now hitting .333 with three homers. Considering the wasteland that is the catcher pool, the move is defensible.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Lovelady RP | KC | 0% | 5% | 5% | $46 |
| Hector Neris RP | PHI | 3% | 14% | 11% | $54 |
| Roenis Elias RP | SEA | 3% | 10% | 7% | $48 |
| Tyson Ross SP | DET | 4% | 10% | 6% | $26 |
| Ervin Santana SP | CHW | 4% | 8% | 4% | $25 |
| John Gant SP | STL | 5% | 10% | 5% | $26 |
| Tyler Mahle SP | CIN | 6% | 18% | 12% | $30 |
| Jordan Lyles RP | PIT | 6% | 15% | 9% | $28 |
| Spencer Turnbull SP | DET | 9% | 13% | 4% | $25 |
| Craig Stammen RP | SD | 9% | 13% | 4% | $46 |
| Nick Margevicius SP | SD | 10% | 32% | 22% | $44 |
| Trent Thornton RP | TOR | 11% | 28% | 17% | $37 |
| Mike Leake SP | SEA | 13% | 38% | 25% | $50 |
| Merrill Kelly SP | ARI | 15% | 35% | 20% | $42 |
| Derek Holland SP | SF | 15% | 22% | 7% | $27 |
| Adam Wainwright SP | STL | 16% | 22% | 6% | $27 |
| CC Sabathia SP | NYY | 16% | 20% | 4% | $26 |
| Felix Hernandez SP | SEA | 18% | 21% | 3% | $26 |
| Diego Castillo RP | TB | 19% | 24% | 5% | $48 |
| Brett Anderson SP | OAK | 20% | 29% | 9% | $30 |
| Trevor Cahill SP | LAA | 22% | 32% | 10% | $31 |
| Blake Parker RP | MIN | 23% | 33% | 10% | $31 |
| Mike Soroka SP | ATL | 25% | 30% | 5% | $28 |
| Vince Velasquez SP | PHI | 26% | 38% | 12% | $33 |
| Anthony Swarzak RP | SEA | 30% | 49% | 19% | $82 |
| Ryan Brasier RP | BOS | 32% | 49% | 17% | $76 |
| Yonny Chirinos RP | TB | 33% | 56% | 23% | $52 |
| Frankie Montas SP | OAK | 34% | 42% | 8% | $31 |
| Max Fried SP | ATL | 36% | 79% | 43% | $106 |
| Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 36% | 42% | 6% | $54 |
| Aaron Sanchez SP | TOR | 42% | 54% | 12% | $37 |
| Mike Minor SP | TEX | 43% | 49% | 6% | $32 |
| Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET | 45% | 55% | 10% | $36 |
Max Fried: He is the only starter possibly generating a large percentage in leagues he’s available.
Ervin Santana, Jordon Lyles, Mike Leake, Tyler Mahle, Franky Montas, Aaron Sanchez, Mike Minor, and Max Fried. Each should be a two-start pitcher.
Hector Neris, Craig Stammen, and Roenis Elias: Save speculation takes a much-needed break this week but if owners are still grinding these three are popular adds. Neris is by far my top option.
Mike Leake: I don’t get his popularity. It’s not that good of a two-step next week against the Indians and at the Angels.
It’s just a boring week for available pitchers. I’m sure someone will go off tomorrow and get owners all excited over nothing. Here are last week’s adds and the adds from the same week a year ago.
| Name | Avg Bid | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Clint Frazier | $165 | 37 |
| Hector Neris | $104 | 37 |
| Trent Thornton | $51 | 33 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | $55 | 29 |
| Freddy Galvis | $30 | 27 |
| Jason Heyward | $67 | 27 |
| Wilmer Difo | $29 | 27 |
| J.D. Davis | $16 | 26 |
| Mark Reynolds | $35 | 21 |
| Tyler Mahle | $14 | 21 |
| Robbie Grossman | $14 | 19 |
| Mike Leake | $18 | 18 |
| Raimel Tapia | $37 | 18 |
| Spencer Turnbull | $58 | 18 |
| Christian Walker | $140 | 17 |
| Nick Margevicius | $36 | 17 |
| Leury Garcia | $34 | 15 |
| Adam Conley | $24 | 14 |
| Blake Swihart | $29 | 14 |
| Alex Verdugo | $83 | 13 |
| Brett Anderson | $9 | 13 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | $35 | 13 |
| Brian Goodwin | $19 | 12 |
| Derek Dietrich | $28 | 12 |
| Mitch Moreland | $40 | 12 |
| Nick Ahmed | $33 | 12 |
| David Fletcher | $11 | 11 |
| Eric Thames | $25 | 11 |
| Jon Duplantier | $8 | 11 |
| Daniel Descalso | $4 | 10 |
| Dwight Smith Jr. | $14 | 10 |
| Marco Estrada | $20 | 10 |
| Melky Cabrera | $14 | 10 |
| Russell Martin | $10 | 10 |
| Felix Hernandez | $12 | 9 |
| Jarrod Dyson | $29 | 9 |
| Renato Nunez | $18 | 9 |
| Adam Wainwright | $27 | 8 |
| Felix Pena | $21 | 8 |
| Rowdy Tellez | $59 | 8 |
| Carson Kelly | $23 | 7 |
| Max Fried | $120 | 7 |
| Merrill Kelly | $93 | 7 |
| Brandon Crawford | $11 | 6 |
| Jason Kipnis | $18 | 6 |
| Ji-Man Choi | $36 | 6 |
| Josh Phegley | $4 | 6 |
| Ty Buttrey | $8 | 6 |
| Tyson Ross | $21 | 6 |
| Alex Gordon | $45 | 5 |
| Brad Boxberger | $17 | 5 |
| Daniel Robertson | $10 | 5 |
| Homer Bailey | $5 | 5 |
| Keon Broxton | $9 | 5 |
| Kyle Zimmer | $15 | 5 |
| Lou Trivino | $9 | 5 |
| Orlando Arcia | $73 | 5 |
| Ryan Brasier | $317 | 5 |
| Steven Duggar | $108 | 5 |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
How about Franmil Reyes?
His ownership is heading down from 53% to 47% as owners grow frustrated. Maybe around 3% of budget.
According to baseball savant’s expected stats based on statcast, Franmil Reyes has been the most unlucky hitter in all of baseball this season in terms of BA, SLG%, and wOBA… buy low if you can imo. Hitting at an average exit velo of 94.9 good for 17th best in the game right now. Just doesn’t have the results to show for it in this SSS
he needs regular playing time. padres and indians should have worked something out…
I’d rather have Reyes than Vogelbach. People lose their damn minds this early in the year.