Week 21 FAAB Projections

by
August 11, 2019

For those few owners with any FAAB left, it looks to be another interesting week of bidding with The Punisher likely getting the top bid. Besides Aristides Aquino, some other players should face a high demand with J.D. Davis and Mike Tauchman on the hitting side and Aaron Sanchez and Aaron Civale on the pitching front. Besides the top adds, check-in on several bullpens to see if there is anyone to add.

The projection guidelines:

  • The ownership rates are from CBS since they have some quickdraw waiver wire leagues where players can be picked up at any time.
  • The FAAB estimates are based on the 2018 15-team mixed NFBC leagues which used a $1000 FAAB budget. Owners are going to need to convert these values to their own league.
  • The ownership values were taken from Saturday and lots can happen in between when they publish and FAAB bids run.
  • Only players owned in 50% or fewer of CBS leagues are examined.

Week 21 Hitter FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Jon Berti 2B | MIA 0% 4% 4% $8
Aristides Aquino RF | CIN 1% 45% 44% $162
Jose Osuna 1B | PIT 1% 7% 6% $10
Cameron Maybin LF | NYY 2% 10% 8% $12
Victor Caratini C | CHC 4% 13% 9% $14
Jake Rogers C | DET 4% 7% 3% $8
Mike Tauchman CF | NYY 7% 53% 46% $184
Austin Nola SS | SEA 8% 11% 3% $9
J.D. Davis 3B | NYM 10% 35% 25% $63
Ian Happ CF | CHC 10% 19% 9% $16
Tucker Barnhart C | CIN 11% 15% 4% $10
Isan Diaz 2B | MIA 13% 27% 14% $28
Jason Kipnis 2B | CLE 16% 41% 25% $69
Trent Grisham RF | MIL 17% 31% 14% $31
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA 22% 26% 4% $16
Willy Adames SS | TB 22% 26% 4% $16
Gavin Lux SS | LAD 26% 34% 8% $24
Leury Garcia LF | CHW 26% 30% 4% $18
Francisco Mejia C | SD 27% 31% 4% $19
Mike Yastrzemski RF | SF 29% 35% 6% $23
Eric Sogard SS | TB 30% 36% 6% $24
Miguel Cabrera 1B | DET 33% 38% 5% $25
Freddy Galvis SS | TOR 33% 36% 3% $22
Willie Calhoun LF | TEX 34% 53% 19% $63
Corey Dickerson LF | PHI 34% 40% 6% $27
Gio Urshela 3B | NYY 37% 69% 32% $131
Brian Anderson RF | MIA 38% 56% 18% $65
Jesus Aguilar 1B | TB 38% 42% 4% $28
Adam Duvall LF | ATL 39% 49% 10% $41
Carson Kelly C | ARI 39% 48% 9% $38
Niko Goodrum 2B | DET 39% 43% 4% $29
Brett Gardner LF | NYY 41% 56% 15% $58
  • Mike Tauchman’s .305/.387/.588 and five steal performance so far in 212 plate appearances will make it tough for the Yankees to sit him when other hitters get healthy. Unstable playing time was the only factor holding back his demand.
  • Gio Urhsela falls into the same camp as Tauchman, great performance (.320/.367/.570 and 17 HR), but suspect playing time going forward.
  • Aristides Aquino is a must-add in all formats after:

  • J.D. Davis has been productive while playing but until the last couple of weeks (started 13 of last 14 games), his playing time was limited.
  • Brian Anderson’s ownership has been up and down all season. He started the season at 55% ownership which is about where he’s at now. I guess hitting .343/.467/.771 with four homers in August helps.
  • I don’t know why Jason Kipnis is getting a nice bump up in ownership. While he is hitting .364/.405/.727 in August, he’s still Jason Kipnis.
  • Willie Calhoun is in the majors and playing (stared last 13 of 15) meaning he should be rostered in most leagues.
  • For anyone needing steals, Jon Berti should be added with five steals in 109 PA.
  • While Austin Nola isn’t great, he is playing most of the time and qualified as a catcher in some formats.
  • I’m still not a believer in Ian Happ because of his inability to hit fastballs (19% SwStr%).
  • I’d put the breaks on spending too much on Trent Grisham. Even though he’s started six straight games, four of those were with Christian Yelich hurt. He’s talented but his playing time will be shaky.
  • Isan Diaz’s 36% K% has limited his major league productivity. He could be a nice power source from the shortstop position at a small cost.
  • Leury Garcia is only at 30% owned. He’s rated as the 119th player (pitchers and hitters) at Razzball with shortstop and outfield qualifications.
Week 21 Pitcher FAAB Projections
Name Previous Ownership% Current Ownership% Change% Cost
Dillon Peters SP | LAA 1% 13% 12% $10
Joe Ross SP | WAS 2% 14% 12% $10
Jacob Waguespack SP | TOR 2% 8% 6% $6
Tony Gonsolin SP | LAD 3% 7% 4% $5
Steven Brault RP | PIT 3% 6% 3% $5
Mark Melancon RP | ATL 4% 24% 20% $36
Kolby Allard RP | TEX 5% 9% 4% $5
Devin Smeltzer SP | MIN 6% 20% 14% $12
Anthony Bass RP | SEA 6% 11% 5% $5
Aaron Civale SP | CLE 10% 48% 38% $61
Daniel Norris SP | DET 12% 20% 8% $8
Ivan Nova SP | CHW 14% 23% 9% $9
Justus Sheffield RP | SEA 17% 20% 3% $6
Seth Lugo RP | NYM 18% 30% 12% $18
Joe Jimenez RP | DET 18% 30% 12% $18
Mitch Keller SP | PIT 22% 27% 5% $7
Cal Quantrill SP | SD 23% 30% 7% $9
Michael Wacha SP | STL 23% 26% 3% $7
Archie Bradley RP | ARI 25% 41% 16% $30
Jason Vargas SP | PHI 33% 44% 11% $14
Emilio Pagan RP | TB 35% 43% 8% $16
Aaron Sanchez SP | HOU 36% 74% 38% $70
Jordan Lyles RP | MIL 36% 42% 6% $10
Scott Oberg RP | COL 37% 54% 17% $38
Jake Junis SP | KC 38% 41% 3% $9
Mike Foltynewicz SP | ATL 40% 65% 25% $38
Vince Velasquez SP | PHI 41% 49% 8% $13
Anthony DeSclafani SP | CIN 41% 49% 8% $13
Brett Anderson SP | OAK 41% 45% 4% $10
Jose Leclerc RP | TEX 43% 50% 7% $17
Dylan Cease SP | CHW 46% 50% 4% $12
  • The Astros fixed Aaron Sanchez, so now everyone must own him.
  • Aaron Civale may be owned for little if most owners aren’t paying attention. For those in leagues with active owners, he’ll cost more.
  • Mike Foltynewicz is back in the majors struggling. I swear the ownership jump is based on name alone. I’d rather have Civale.

Most of the projected bigger biggs this week are in the bullpens. Here is how I’d rank the relievers based on Save potential.

  1. Jose LeClerc
  2. Archie Bradley
  3. Scott Ohberg
  4. Mark Melancon
  5. Anthony Bass
  6. Joe Jimenez: He’s close with Melancon and Bass and could be ranked above them.
  7. Emilio Pagan: I hate to gamble on Rays closers
  8. Seth Lugo
2019 Week 20 FAAB Bids
Add Avg Bid Leagues (38)
Bo Bichette $104 17
Scott Oberg $41 12
Archie Bradley $40 26
Joe Jimenez $33 9
Aaron Sanchez $32 17
Jose Leclerc $24 5
Dustin May $23 38
Jesus Aguilar $22 9
Kevin Newman $19 5
J.D. Davis $18 6
Gio Urshela $17 6
Adam Duvall $17 11
Cal Quantrill $14 6
Pablo Lopez $11 5
Aaron Civale $11 33
Seth Lugo $10 11
Yadier Molina $10 5
Hanser Alberto $10 5
Cheslor Cuthbert $10 10
Mike Tauchman $10 24
Trent Grisham $9 33
Kyle Seager $8 8
Conner Menez $8 20
Daniel Norris $7 24
Devin Smeltzer $7 30
Sean Manaea $7 12
Jordan Yamamoto $7 5
Anthony Bass $6 29
Raimel Tapia $6 6
Delino DeShields $6 6
Aristides Aquino $5 22
Tony Gonsolin $5 10
Matt Thaiss $5 25
Cameron Maybin $5 16
Jordan Lyles $5 6
Wade LeBlanc $4 13
Victor Caratini $4 22
Roman Quinn $4 14
Adam Plutko $4 12
Jarlin Garcia $4 20
Spencer Turnbull $4 12
Sandy Alcantara $4 5
Mike Ford $4 7
Matt Adams $4 9
Jon Berti $3 8
Travis Demeritte $3 17
Michael Wacha $3 20
Matt Wieters $3 5
Jesse Chavez $3 9
Derek Fisher $3 5
Ivan Nova $3 16
Shawn Armstrong $2 7
Harold Ramirez $2 6
Evan Longoria $2 8
Brandon Dixon $2 5
Jose Peraza $2 6
Jake Rogers $2 8
Brandon Drury $2 5
Miguel Rojas $2 15
Nick Pivetta $2 7
Isiah Kiner-Falefa $2 6
Jalen Beeks $2 6
Bubba Starling $1 5
Joe Ross $1 10
Tucker Barnhart $1 6
2018 Week 21 FAAB Bids
Add Avg Bid Leagues (34)
Scott Alexander $29 23
Willy Adames $28 18
Hunter Renfroe $26 8
Drew Steckenrider $21 14
Ryan Madson $21 30
Jeremy Jeffress $20 19
Reynaldo Lopez $15 6
Jacob Nix $14 7
Delino DeShields $12 6
Adam Ottavino $12 6
Trevor Hildenberger $12 13
Cedric Mullins $12 18
Edwin Jackson $12 6
Austin Gomber $11 8
Franmil Reyes $11 30
Welington Castillo $10 5
Addison Reed $10 12
Yonny Chirinos $9 9
Jake Junis $9 5
Seth Lugo $9 6
John Gant $9 9
Devon Travis $8 12
Brad Peacock $8 6
Kyle Tucker $8 8
Brad Keller $7 7
Chris Iannetta $7 13
Renato Nunez $7 5
Brett Anderson $7 5
Tyler White $7 16
Erasmo Ramirez $7 11
Pablo Lopez $6 14
Brian Johnson $6 14
Hunter Strickland $6 5
Yandy Diaz $6 5
Jeff McNeil $6 9
Blaine Hardy $6 19
Michael Perez $5 5
Matt Wieters $5 7
Neil Walker $5 11
Ryan McMahon $5 10
Jordan Zimmermann $5 5
Tommy Milone $4 9
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. $4 6
Phillip Ervin $4 6
Logan Forsythe $3 10
James Shields $3 7
Clayton Richard $3 8
Tyler Flowers $3 7
Heath Fillmyer $3 6
Lucas Giolito $2 5
David Freese $2 6
Adam Frazier $2 7
Elias Diaz $2 11
Brett Kennedy $2 6
Austin Romine $1 8
Alen Hanson $1 6





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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LenFuego
4 years ago

If you want to gamble on Rays closers, it might be worth taking a flyer on José Alvarado. He is on nobody’s radar because he is still on the IL so you can probably pick him up for free, but he has looked pretty good in four rehab appearances and should get activated soon.

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