Week 2 Mixed-League FAAB Estimates
Last season, I started collecting FAAB bids from the NFBC Main Event to help estimate the player costs. It’s time to start the 2019 estimates for week two. The process is far from perfect but it does provide a bidding guideline. I use the NFBC Main Event because it contains 37 15-team leagues but each individual league is going to have its own unique dynamics. Understanding and trackings the differences are key for each owner. Owners need to take these player guesstimates and see how they compare to their own league. It may seem like too much work but can really help to determine how much to spend.
In our book, The Process, Tanner Bell and I broke down the 2018 FAAB bidding in detail going over the various trends. We found that player bids fit into three types:
- Minimum bids: These are $1/$0 bids for players only the person bidding desires. Owners need to find the corresponding ownership rates and the bids which won these players and stick to it. So many dollars are wasted on early season overbids on players only one person needs to fill in for an injured player.
- Middle ground: I feel this area is where leagues are won and lost. Owners see players with new skills and/or playing time. The key with these players is to understand they can’t be had for $1 but an owner doesn’t need to drop >10% of their budget on them. It’s more of an art when bidding in this range.
- Wallet openers: These players are going to go from anywhere between 10% to 50% of a budget. Usually, these players are rookie call-ups or new closers. The key may not be winning the bid as much as setting a limit to not cripple your team in the future.
Here are this week’s estimated FAAB with the ownership percentages from CBSSportsline and bid estimates for the NFBC Main Event ($1000 Budget, low bid of $1). I use CBS’s ownership rates since they divide the ownership by weeks but also allow daily pickups. An early player demand rate can be seen from these daily pickups.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolten Wong 2B | STL | 6% | 15% | 9% | $34 |
| Chad Pinder LF | OAK | 11% | 17% | 6% | $31 |
| Tim Beckham SS | SEA | 17% | 53% | 36% | $146 |
| Enrique Hernandez CF | LAD | 15% | 50% | 35% | $138 |
| Brandon Lowe 2B | TB | 20% | 33% | 13% | $50 |
| Greg Bird 1B | NYY | 17% | 27% | 10% | $41 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 22% | 25% | 3% | $33 |
| Ryon Healy 1B | SEA | 22% | 33% | 11% | $46 |
| Jung Ho Kang 3B | PIT | 27% | 40% | 13% | $55 |
| Joc Pederson LF | LAD | 27% | 43% | 16% | $64 |
| Austin Barnes C | LAD | 31% | 40% | 9% | $49 |
| Jorge Alfaro C | MIA | 29% | 34% | 5% | $41. |
| Kole Calhoun RF | LAA | 30% | 34% | 4% | $40 |
| Troy Tulowitzki SS | NYY | 30% | 40% | 10% | $51 |
| Jonathan Lucroy C | LAA | 32% | 35% | 3% | $40 |
| Niko Goodrum 2B | DET | 37% | 54% | 17% | $79 |
| Adam Jones CF | ARI | 36% | 42% | 6% | $48 |
| Fernando Tatis SS | SD | 56% | 88% | 32% | $184 |
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Rogers RP | MIN | 5% | 14% | 9% | $51 |
| Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR | 6% | 13% | 7% | $27 |
| Bryse Wilson RP | ATL | 8% | 20% | 12% | $31 |
| Greg Holland RP | ARI | 14% | 46% | 32% | $133 |
| Eric Lauer SP | SD | 14% | 57% | 43% | $98 |
| Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET | 9% | 18% | 9% | $28 |
| Pablo Lopez SP | MIA | 12% | 32% | 20% | $41 |
| Wily Peralta RP | KC | 14% | 20% | 6% | $49 |
| Frankie Montas SP | OAK | 10% | 20% | 10% | $29 |
| Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 16% | 24% | 8% | $52 |
| Dakota Hudson RP | STL | 21% | 39% | 18% | $40 |
| Domingo German SP | NYY | 27% | 42% | 15% | $37 |
| Kyle Wright RP | ATL | 24% | 37% | 13% | $34 |
| Caleb Smith SP | MIA | 26% | 38% | 12% | $33 |
| Wade Miley SP | HOU | 29% | 40% | 11% | $33 |
| Trevor Richards SP | MIA | 32% | 54% | 22% | $49 |
| Matthew Boyd SP | DET | 30% | 38% | 8% | $31 |
| Matt Harvey SP | LAA | 35% | 44% | 9% | $33 |
| Freddy Peralta SP | MIL | 37% | 81% | 44% | $110 |
| Jake Junis SP | KC | 38% | 49% | 11% | $35 |
| Brandon Woodruff RP | MIL | 39% | 63% | 24% | $56 |
| David Hernandez RP | CIN | 2% | 3% | 1% | $25 |
| Cory Gearrin RP | SEA | 1% | 1% | 0% | $25 |
| Blake Parker RP | MIN | 11% | 14% | 3% | $26 |
Thoughts:
- My FAAB formula has the minimum bid this week at $25 dollars. I know bids can be lower, but teams historically have spent a few more dollars early to get their guy. Last year, over two-thirds of the week-two bids were over $10. The above players are in demand and will not be won for a minimum this week.
- There could be several wallet openers this week if the players slipped through the cracks and are available (Holland, Peralta, Lauer, Tatis, Beckham, Hernandez). The surprise jump for me is Eric Lauer. While I picked him up in several places as a streaming option, he now has some real trade value with his dominating win.
- In leagues where Tatis is available, I’d not be surprised at all if he goes for 50% of total FAAB. Personally, I’d max out around 20% to 25%.
- I added a few closer options, especially with the Hunter Strickland injury. The one arm I’m a little surprised is so low is Blake Parker. He may be Minnesota’s closer and only has a 14% ownership rate. Last week in Tout Wars, I pegged him as Wallet Opener and spent over $100 in FAAB on him. The next highest bid was $37. I should have used my own work to limit my bid and not waste the $70 in FAAB.
- For reference, here are players picked up the most last season along with the average bids.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
This is awesome thanks Jeff