Waiver Wire Targets: Week 10

For once, I’m more interested in the available starters compared to the hitters. Some interesting rookie pitchers (e.g. Poteet, Peacock, Davidson, Bubic) have emerged. While each has flaws, it’s likely one or two will emerge as a must-start arm.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

• Amed Rosario: He has finally locked up Cleveland’s shortstop role. He’s providing some power (3 HR) and speed (5 SB). He’s batting second in the lineup. Solid add.

• Odúbel Herrera: A balanced profile (4 HR, 3 SB, .267 AVG) and playing all the time.

• Taylor Trammell: Trammell started the season in the majors and seemed overwhelmed with a strikeout rate over 40%. He was demoted back to AAA where he hit .384/.413/.726 with just a 21% K%. In four games since returning, he has a 14% K%. IF the changes stick, he’s interesting for his power and speed upside. Roster now to see how he performs over the next two weeks.

• Willy Adames: He’s playing a lot better with the Brewers (.625 OPS vs .827 OPS). Additionally, against left-handed starters, he bats second. Both his walk rate (7% to 14%) and strikeout rate (36% to 24%) have improved since the trade. While the production boost might be short-lived… or maybe not. Roster him while he’s still available.

• Hunter Renfroe: He’s become a better option since an improved strikeout rate (31% to 27% to 25%) has his batting average up to .261 (career-high since his rookie season). He’s being less passive and swinging more at pitches in the strike zone (42% to 51%). The improvements haven’t gone unnoticed and he’s started 10 straight games.

• Jonathan Schoop. Some power (9 HR) with an acceptable batting average (.261) and no speed. It’s what he’s always done.

• Brad Miller: I’m not a believer in Brad Miller and his .394 BABIP and 34% K%. I expect some heavy regression on his .274 AVG. Even with the expected decline, the power (5 HR) and speed (3 SB) along with a full-time job (for now), he’s a must roster. Just track his playing time once Bryce Harper returns from the IL.

• Freddy Galvis: Galvis has found a little more power (career-high .223 ISO), making him more than a weekly injury substitution. It does look like the potential for double-digit steals from five seasons ago is gone (1 SB in 2021).

• Jonathan Villar: Tough to rank. With the injuries, the Mets have dealt with, Villar (.239 AVG, 5 HR, 6 SB) has been leading off. Over the last few days, he has been dealing with his own hamstring injury. His playing time looks to be safe for another month or so until the rest of the team gets healthy. He is more valuable to a team in need of a short stolen base boost.

• Garrett Cooper: A boring dual-position qualified hitter who is playing. He has probably 20 HR upside and is  a decent source of batting average (.275 AVG on his career) but a 5% point increase in his strikeout rate has his current batting average at .255.

• Pavin Smith: Smith’s value is down a bit solely based on playing time. With Ketel Marte, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Christian Walker all off the IL, Smith (.288 AVG, 5 HR) is not required to play every day. Over the last three days, he has hit fifth, sixth, or was benched. Monitor closely to make sure the playing time continues.

• Miguel Andújar: I guess he took it personally when I called him out for being a poor man’s David Fletcher by hitting three homers over the last four games. Some of his David Fletcher traits still exist. He still hasn’t walked. He’s still grounding out over 50% of the time (even during the HR bing it was over 50%).

I think the Yankees’ short right-field fence has messed with him. Back in 2018, here are his hits.

And from this year.

He went from pulling the ball to going the other way. In 2018, he pulled 17 (73%) of his home runs. Until he starts pulling the ball again, a repeat of 2018 won’t happen.

• Patrick Wisdom: He’s started five of the last six games as the Cubs’ third baseman. in 27 PA, he’s hitting .407/.448/.926. It’ll be interesting to see if he continues to play once Jason Heyward comes off the IL.

• Harold Ramirez: He’s playing every day, hitting OK (.732), and batting near the top of the Tigers lineup. That’s valuable in some leagues. Not in others.

• Trevor Larnach: He gets a huge boost in points or on-base leagues with his .384 OBP. Otherwise, it’s not a useful profile with little power and no speed.

• Josh Reddick: He has started 12 of 15 games since being recalled from the minors. He has a .321 AVG propped up by a .395 BABIP (career .288 BABIP). At least he’s a warm body.

• Luis Urías: His value got crushed when Willy Adames got traded to the Brewers. Since late May, he was only starting half the time, but with Kolten Wong headed to the IL, Urias (7 HR, 2 SB, .221 AVG) is a short-term play.

• Austin Slater: The steals (7) and homers (also 7) are decent, but he’s on the short side of a platoon (.898 OPS vs LHP, .574 OPS vs RHP). This upcoming week, the Giants are scheduled to face only one lefty. Fine for a daily lineup league, but a pass otherwise.

• Wilmer Flores: He’s mainly been playing first base and that’s with Belt and Ruf on the IL. And the stats aren’t eye-popping (3 HR, 1 SB, .250 AVG, .714 OPS). Take a chance with someone else.

• Steven Duggar: Guess who is platooning with Austin Slater? His .316/.358/.566 playable when he plays.

• Edward Olivares: He was hitting in the minors (.372/.455/.616). And when given the opportunity, he hit in the majors (.364/.417/.364). And for no good reason, he got demoted back to AAA. No need to roster for now, but if he gets called up again and starts, roster.

• Rob Refsnyder: On the concussion IL and might not have a job when he returns.

Catchers

• Victor Caratini: The Padres primary catcher with Austin Nola out.

• Ryan Jeffers: For those fantasy managers looking for a second catcher, Jeffers might be a nice cheap add. His career MLB slash line is .247/.318/.402 with four homers in just over 100 plate appearances. In AAA this season, he had 5 HR in 103 PA. There is a chance he could hit 20 to 30 homers. Now, his batting average could be a drag but he does walk a decent amount. He’s one of the few hitters on the early season Volt-Muncy list.

Hitting Prospects

• Vidal Bruján: With the latest Super 2 deadline date soon approaching (June 10th), it’s time to add the top prospects on the cheap. Brujan’s power/speed combination could be a needed boost.

• Jesús Sánchez: He’s hitting .394/.444/.707 in AAA and is an obvious callup once the Marlins quit manipulating his service time. He might not get called up immediately since he did play 10 games in 2020 and those will need to be taken into account.

Starters

• Tarik Skubal: In his last two starts, he has only allow the Yankees and White Sox to score 1 Run while striking out 19 of them. He’s been lights out since he dropped the splitter at the end of April. The only “issue” keeping him from elite starter discussion is his high walk rate (4.3 BB/9). He’s a must-add while he’s still on the waiver wire.

• Alex Cobb: His 22% K%-BB% ranks 26th in the league (min 30 IP) ahead of starters such as Nola, Buehler, and Giolito. If his .376 BABIP regresses any bit to his career average (.292 BABIP), his value will skyrocket.

• Martín Pérez: He’s become a decent streaming option (3.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), who could struggle if his home run rate (0.6 HR/9) increases. His improvement comes from attacking the strike zone more (+3% points) pushing his strikeouts up (6.7 K/9 to 8.0 K/9) and his walks down (4.1 BB/9 to 2.8 BB/9).

• Josh Fleming: While Fleming isn’t getting an ideal number of strikeouts (5.2 K/9), his low walks (1.09 WHIP) help his value. Since he’s been the follower in half his games, there is a better chance to get the Win (5 this season). The Rays did let him throw 100 pitches in his last start, so he might no longer need an opener.

• Merrill Kelly 켈리: A fine streaming option. His 5.12 ERA might keep him off some people’s radar, but his ERA estimators are at 4.00. He’s getting hit around a bit (1.3 HR/9, .317 BABIP) pushing the ERA up. His fastballs are crap (~5% SwStr%) and he’s been adding a cutter (14% SwStr%) that could help.

• Logan Webb: On the IL with a strained shoulder. I’m not a fan of arm injuries, so he might not be rosterable no matter his results (9.9 K/9, 1.29 WHIP, 3.86 ERA). Wait for more news on the extent of his injury and the estimated return time.

• Tucker Davidson: He had some great minor league numbers (10.4 K/9, 0.60 WHIP, 0.90 ERA). In two MLB starts, he’s ridden a .172 BABIP to a 1.03 WHIP and a 2.31 ERA. The problem is that his strikeouts (10.4 K/9 to 7.7 K/9) and walks (1.8 BB/9 to 4.6 BB/9) have gotten significantly worse. There are some positives like a 50% GB% and three pitches with above-average swinging-strike rates, but the walks are an issue. I’d bench for now and see if the walks improve.

• Cody Poteet: He was throwing decent (3.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and went on the IL (knee). While some BABIP (.206) regression is expected, he could end up being a pitcher who gets started 75% of the time when he returns from the IL.

• Matt Peacock: A 4.68 ERA doesn’t inspire much confidence, but if a 0.1 inning, 7 ER appearance against Colorado is removed, he has a 2.79 ERA. He’s a worm killer with a 62% GB (MLB leading). While he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (6.3 K/9), he doesn’t walk many (1.9 BB/9). A perfectly fine streamable profile.

• Eric Lauer: While he has been hurt by the long ball (3.0 HR/9, 42% HR/FB%, 4.88 ERA), he’s maintained good strikeout (10.1 K/9) and walk (1.9 BB/9) numbers. The issue is that he’s effectively a two-pitch pitcher (fastball and cutter) with his other two pitches (slider and change) having a sub-6.0 SwStr%. This can be seen with a 3.24 ERA the first time through the order and a 9.95 ERA the second time.

• Kris Bubic: His 2.12 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but they are being helped by some batted ball luck (0.5 HR/9, .269 BABIP) especially with his 4.2 BB/9. So can he maintain the batted ball results? Besides his curveball (71 GB%, 11% usage), his individual pitches are not at the extremes of batted ball results. It’s not a skill set I’d look at rostering.

• Vladimir Gutierrez: In two starts, he has a 1.00 WHIP and 2.70 ERA but with ERA estimators in the 5.00 range. It’s just been 10 MLB innings so far, so he’s tough to evaluate. For now, I see him as a roster and bench until his true talent clears up.

• Vince Velasquez: Regression came hard in this last start. Coming into the start, he has a 2.95 ERA and he left it with a 4.08 ERA. A .239 BABIP (career .312 BABIP) helped him appear to improve, but a 5.7 BB/9, with no signs of improvement, have him completely off my radar.

• Caleb Smith: He’s now back in Arizona’s rotation, so be careful to not assume his reliever stats (18% K%-BB%, 2.70 ERA) will carry over to starting (6% K%-BB%, 5.63 ERA). Monitor his next couple of starts to see if he can keep the gains he saw as a reliever.

• Justin Dunn: He is expected to come off the IL (shoulder) to make a start this week. Even if he makes the start, he doesn’t have a profile I support with his ERA estimators at or over 5.00. A 5.4 BB/9 is usually a value killer, but he’s been able to keep his flyballs (34% GB%) in the park (1.0 HR/9) to post a .196 BABIP. Maybe he can keep the results going, but it won’t be on my roster.

• Chris Flexen 플렉센: He’s been pitching bad and the results have been bad (1.42 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 4.70 ERA). I looked for any improvement in May and he performed worse (13 K%-BB% to 6% K%-BB%). Ignore.

• Antonio Senzatela: He has two favorable road starts (at Miami, at Cincinnati). He feels like a Dallas Keuchel clone (5.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 53% GB%). If he had a decent chance for a Win (he doesn’t), I’d chance the profile for these two starts.

• John Gant: He’s walking more batters than Velazquez (6.0 BB/9) and almost striking out half as many (6.9 K/9). His 1.52 WHIP has him unrosterable, but look at that shiny 1.60 ERA. He’s thriving off a 0.2 HR/9 and 86% LOB%.

• David Price: He’s being used as an opener. His stats are irrelevant (4.00 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) since he can only get a few strikeouts and no chance for a Win.

Pitching Prospects

• Jackson Kowar: He been lights out in AAA (0.85 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 11.7 K/9). The Royals have no issues promoting their pitching prospects, so he’s likely to get a callup this summer.

Relievers (ranked based on Save chances)

• Daniel Bard: OK reliever with the closer’s role.

• Tejay Antone: Great reliever with part of a closer’s role.

• J.P. Feyereisen: Good reliever with part of a closer’s role.

• Lucas Sims: Good reliever with part of a closer’s role

• Scott Barlow: Borderline great reliever who might be the closer now and could lose it once Josh Staumont returns from the IL. He could lead this list next week or need to be dropped. Wide range of outcomes.

• Cole Sulser: Good reliever who may be the closer.

• Paul Fry: Good reliever who may be the closer.

• Keynan Middleton: OK reliever with part of a closer’s role but that could dry up with Kendall Graveman about to come off the IL.

• Kyle Zimmer: OK reliever who might get a few more Saves. After recording back-to-back Saves on May 23rd and 25th, his next four appearances were as a setup man who relieved the starter three times.

• Andrew Kittredge: OK reliever who will luck into a few Saves in Tampa’s bullpen this season

• Ryan Tepera: Good reliever who is next in line for Saves.

• Jean Carlos Mejía: OK rookie pitcher with an unknown role.