Waiver Wire Report (Week 5)

Focus on the hitters this week with many contingency bids. Many of the fifth or sixth choices this week will be the #1 options in the upcoming weeks. It’s not a week to half-ass bidding.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Tommy Pham: He needs to be added in all leagues with his 15 HR/15 SB upside.

Ramón Laureano: He’s expected to come off his suspension tomorrow and he is a nice power-speed threat.

Jose Miranda: The 24-year-old destroyed the minors last season with 30 HR and a .344 AVG. He was not as good in AAA (.256/.295/.442 with 2 HR) this season but got promoted with Miguel Sano on the IL. He’s struggled over his first five games (.540 OPS) with the projections having him settling in around 15 HR and a .260 AVG over the rest of the season.

Edward Olivares: Mr. I-29 finally has a full-time job with a .414 BABIP fueled .364/.417/.485. And 2 SB. In less than 300 AAA PA last season, he hit 15 HR and stole 12 bases with a .313 AVG. A must-add for the upside.

Juan Yepez: Any team needing a power boost may need to take a chance on Yepez. In 450 AAA PA over the past two seasons, he has 31 HR and over a .280 AVG.

Sheldon Neuse: He just continues to hit (.310/.370/.429 with 2 HR and 3 SB) and with the A’s having nine games next week, he’s a must-add.

Josh Naylor: In some formats, Naylor’s stock went up with first base eligibility. He’s hitting .333/.356/.491 with 2 HR and should at least be considered an all-formats as a bench bat.

Manuel Margot: I’m fairly high on Margot and he should be rostered by any team needing steals. While he only has two this season, he’s had five straight seasons of 10 or more steals. No one else is this available will likely come close to this total. And he’s helped with a .312 AVG this season.

Rowdy Tellez: Tellez has been on fire (.440/.482/1.080 with 4 HR over the past week) but nothing has changed in his profile. He was just able to dominate the Reds and Cubs. While he might get more playing time, I just consider him a streaming option to use in these weak matchups that continue next week with the Reds but then in Miami.

Royce Lewis: Lewis was having no issues with AAA (.310/.430/.563 with 3 HR and 8 SB) when he was promoted to the majors. The top-100 prospect started his first two games at shortstop while batting ninth. He’s worth taking a chance on for the steals. His playing time is up in the air with Carlos Correa not going on the IL.

Andrés Giménez: While not walking (2% BB%), a .417 BABIP has led to a .344/.348/.547 with 2 HR and 1 SB so far. The hot streak has him in the lineup and playing every day. Now, if he would just start stealing a few more bases.

Santiago Espinal: A fine hitter (.259/.319/.424 with 2 HR and 3 SB) qualified at second and third.

Ha-Seong Kim 김하성: Besides a low batting average (.234), he’s been a pleasant surprise, especially the .347 OBP.

Joey Wendle: On the strong side of a platoon with a decent .273 AVG and 4 SB. The platoon situation prevents him from being a fantasy lineup regular, but he’s a decent bench bat to stream for those stolen bases.

Harrison Bader: He’s likely only being added because of the 6 SB (three in one game) and a bit of power (2 HR). The counting stats won’t be there since he’s hitting at the bottom of the Card’s lineup. A fourth or fifth outfield option.

Odúbel Herrera: I’m interested in Herrera not for his historical traits (speed and batting average), but for his power (55 HardHit%, 15% Barrel%, 50% Pull%) in what looks to be full-time at-bats. His Sprint Speed is down 1.6 mph moving from the 57th to 26th percentile so the stolen bases might not return. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

Christian Walker: So far he’s hit 6 HR. Also, he has a .154 AVG (.243 xAVG) fueled by a .129 BABIP. He might be going for too much air (39% FB% to 56% FB%) with this season’s sad, boring ball and generating too many flyball outs.

Pavin Smith: Smith is coming around by hitting .274/.372/.452 with 3 HR and 1 SB. Additionally, he started against the last lefty starter. He’s at least a serviceable bench bat.

Yadiel Hernandez: He’s batting every day in the middle of the Nats lineup while being productive (.373/.394/.522 with 1 HR and 1 SB). Solid.

Yandy Díaz: He’s playing every day and contributing (.308/.438/.423 and 2 HR). Serviceable.

César Hernández: A steady contributor by hitting .277/.317/.336 with 2 SB.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: He’s hitting (.295/.329/.372) and playing every day. He’s just not hitting for any power (.077 ISO, 0 HR) and only has 2 SB.

Jarren Duran: He was destroying AAA (.397/.478/.638 with 2 HR and 7 SB) and gets another shot at the majors after disappointing last season (.215/.241/.336). With Jackie Bradley Jr. struggling (.571 OPS), there was a chance Duran sticks in the majors with his 20+ SB upside, but that scenario won’t play out as Duran heads back to the minors after one game.

Michael Chavis: He continues to keep his strikeouts (21% K%) in check and his results are up (.274/.299/.484 with 3 HR). With some players back, he might be on the short side of a first base platoon with Yoshi Tsutsugo (.498 OPS). Maybe Chavis will hit enough to take Tsutsugo’s job. Something will have to give.

Alfonso Rivas: He’s at least on the strong side of a platoon and has led off the last three games. The 25-year-old has not played much (14 AAA PA) but is hitting .333/.438/.481 with 1 HR. He’s always hit for some power with a good AVG. If he secures full-time at-bats he’s interesting in the Yuli Gurriel or Eric Hosmer mold. Teams needing AVG should take a chance.

Nick Ahmed: He’s back and playing every day. He’s been able to hit 3 HR in his first 10 games while drawing a single walk and striking out a third of the time. I’ll just consider him a middle infield option.

Chad Pinder: A 42% K%, 0% BB% and .429 BABIP lead to a .281/.277/.469 with 3 HR. This could get ugly once the BABIP comes back to Earth.

Travis Demeritte: The 27-year-old starting about three-quarters of the time and hitting .303/.368/.545 with 2 HR so far this season. He seems to be a fine deeper-league replacement 5th outfielder.

Taylor Walls: Walls is playing most of the time and has stolen four bases. His .203 AVG could be a drag in Roto leagues using AVG while his .329 OBP keeps him in the lineup (15% BB%). The rest of the counting stats aren’t coming with just 3 RBI in 76 PA. Maybe he’s a streaming option for steals.

Wilmer Flores: Flores has been a nice multi-position bat to start off the season, but the Giants are getting a ton of players back so his playing time may come to an end.

Jon Berti: I was wondering why Berti was being added but 2 HR and 2 SB with .300/.440/.550 is … interesting. He has played in six of the last 10 games and always starts and hits leadoff against lefties. Monitor to see how the playing time settles.

Brandon Drury: He’s hitting for power (.246 ISO, 4 HR) and not much more (.231 AVG, .271 OBP). Streaming option.

Victor Robles: He’s locked into batting eighth every day after starting the season off slow. Over the past two weeks, he’s hitting .355/.400/.484 but has not attempted a steal this season (67th percentile Sprint Speed). Without speed or power, what is he besides a defense-only center fielder? Unrosterable until he has any fantasy viable traits.

Trevor Larnach: He starts in about two-thirds of the games and has hit .313/.365/.448 with no home runs or stolen bases. While he should have more power, he’s just not getting to it this season. Pass.

Catchers

MJ Melendez: The hardest player to evaluate. He wasn’t hitting great in AAA (.167/.286/.295) but got promoted because of injuries. While he’s talented, he might not play that much (7 PA so far) and might be demoted once Cam Gallagher returns. High variance play.

Ryan Jeffers: He’s hitting like a catcher (.220/.313/.441 and 3 HR). Nothing special.

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS NYY 38% 40% 2%
Joey Wendle 3B MIA 37% 39% 2%
Tommy Pham LF CIN 35% 44% 9%
Ramon Laureano CF OAK 35% 43% 8%
Harrison Bader CF STL 34% 40% 6%
Wilmer Flores 3B SF 30% 43% 13%
Andres Gimenez 2B CLE 28% 40% 12%
Josh Naylor 1B CLE 27% 30% 3%
Jose Miranda 1B MIN 26% 41% 15%
Santiago Espinal 2B TOR 24% 29% 5%
Pavin Smith RF ARI 24% 27% 3%
Sheldon Neuse 3B OAK 23% 59% 36%
Rowdy Tellez 1B MIL 20% 68% 48%
MJ Melendez C KC 20% 31% 11%
Ha-seong Kim SS SD 19% 41% 22%
Christian Walker 1B ARI 19% 21% 2%
Cesar Hernandez 2B WAS 18% 22% 4%
Royce Lewis SS MIN 16% 41% 25%
Manuel Margot RF TB 16% 18% 2%
Yandy Diaz 3B TB 12% 25% 13%
Jarren Duran CF BOS 12% 23% 11%
Chad Pinder LF OAK 11% 13% 2%
Michael Chavis 1B PIT 11% 13% 2%
Odubel Herrera CF PHI 10% 12% 2%
Victor Robles CF WAS 7% 12% 5%
Ryan Jeffers C MIN 6% 9% 3%
Trevor Larnach LF MIN 6% 8% 2%
Travis Demeritte RF ATL 5% 14% 9%
Juan Yepez DH STL 4% 16% 12%
Nick Ahmed SS ARI 4% 6% 2%
Taylor Walls 3B TB 3% 7% 4%
Edward Olivares RF KC 2% 14% 12%
Yadiel Hernandez LF WAS 2% 12% 10%
Alfonso Rivas 1B CHC 2% 4% 2%
Brandon Drury 2B CIN 2% 4% 2%
Jon Berti 2B MIA 1% 3% 2%

Starters

George Kirby: One of the top pitching prospects in the game and is getting promoted. He was destroying AA (11.7 K/9, 0.89 WHIP, 1.82 ERA) with a high-90’s fastball and excellent command. His secondary pitches grade out as average at best and they will determine his major league upside.

Chris Paddack: He has a 3.15 ERA and matching ERA estimators. He’s taken the step forward by not walking anyone (0.9 BB/9). His worm-killing curve (71% GB%) might not miss many bats (10% SwStr%) but it gives him a much-needed third pitch.

Bruce Zimmermann: He remains effective (9.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.58 ERA) since he stays away from his 90-mph fastball (30% GB%, 4% SwStr%).

Dane Dunning: I detailed Dunning in this week’s Big Kid Adds. Basically, I’m all in at this point since the walks are down and his velocity back up.

Josh Winder: He’s been lights out as a starter (11.3 K/9, 1.50 xFIP) but there is a chance he won’t stay in the rotation with several pitchers returning to the team. Even though he has a 95-mph fastball (6% SwStr%), he’s throwing his slider more (18% SwStr%). I think he has to be added this week, probably benched, and then see how the playing time shakes out. Most managers won’t get a second chance to roster him.

Daniel Lynch: He’s been decent (8.6 K/9, 1.14 WHIP, 3.86 ERA) but his 38% GB% has led to a 1.7 HR/9. He’s taken the step forward by leaning into his slider (15% SwStr%) and change (15% SwStr%).

Tyler Anderson: While his 2.55 ERA is not sustainable, he looks to be a ~3.50 ERA pitcher on a good team. Bench streamer.

Ross Stripling: Two major changes (throwing a sinker, fewer fastballs) have him performing like a decent starter (starter stats: 3.19 ERA, 54% GB%, 7.9 K/9, 0.5 BB/9). He needs to at least be rostered and benched to see if the changes stick.

Glenn Otto: It’s been just two starts (9 IP) for him with elite stats (9.6 K/9, 0.96 WHIP, 2.89 ERA). He threw his changeup (13% SwStr%) more in his second start to help him have a decent third pitch in order to navigate a lineup for the 3rd time.

Adrian Houser: He’s been fine (7.5 K/9, 1.25 WHIP, 3.42 ERA) but without the normal groundballs (59% GB% to 44%). Match up streamer.

Michael Wacha: He’s limited hits (.161 BABIP, 0.7 HR) leading to a 1.38 ERA. He should be able to limit some hits with his fastball generating popups (28% GB%) and the rest of his pitches having a groundball rate over 55% but not to his current level. His ERA estimators are around 4.00 and that seems about right with his fastball velocity (93.8 mph to 92.9) and strikeouts (8.7 K/9 to 6.6 BB/9) down. Regression is will come.

Michael Lorenzen: Of the pitchers with at least 20 IP, his 5.3 K/9 is the fifth-lowest. With the current mush ball, he limited hard contact (.232 BABIP, 0.7 HR/9) so far leading to a misleading 1.10 WHIP and 3.04 ERA.

Austin Gomber: Decent pitcher (8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 47% GB%) but pitches half his games at Coors. Stream on the road.

Chad Kuhl: While the 1.85 ERA is a mirage, he is a streamable option (6.7 K/9, 3.85 xFIP) when on the road.

Martín Pérez: He’s been able to leverage a 54% GB% into no home runs allowed. He needs that bonus with just 6.4 K/9.

Kyle Bradish: He seemed intriguing after his first start, but he’s allowed six runs with only five strikeouts over 10 innings. He’ll need to show something to get fantasy consideration.

Michael Pineda: I know fantasy managers can get desperate, but Pineda doesn’t deserve to be on anyone’s roster with career-lows in strikeout rate (5.0 K/9) and fastball velocity (90.2 mph).

Jake Odorizzi: On the season, he has 12 K and 9 BB in 21 IP. There is no reason to roster him.

Pitching prospects

Max Meyer: If a manager has the chance to stash Meyer, they have to at this point. He should be in the Marlins rotation soon while destroying AAA (11.2 K/9, 1.72 ERA, 0.86 WHIP).

CBS Starter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Michael Wacha SP BOS 39% 63% 24%
Chris Paddack SP MIN 36% 52% 16%
Michael Lorenzen SP LAA 35% 43% 8%
Max Meyer RP MIA 33% 41% 8%
Chad Kuhl SP COL 32% 51% 19%
Adrian Houser SP MIL 30% 38% 8%
Bruce Zimmermann SP BAL 30% 36% 6%
Michael Pineda SP DET 29% 31% 2%
Tyler Anderson RP LAD 27% 34% 7%
Austin Gomber SP COL 22% 35% 13%
George Kirby SP SEA 23% 45% 22%
Daniel Lynch SP KC 21% 27% 6%
Jake Odorizzi SP HOU 13% 19% 6%
Dane Dunning SP TEX 13% 19% 6%
Ross Stripling SP TOR 8% 11% 3%
Glenn Otto SP TEX 8% 10% 2%
Martin Perez SP TEX 5% 15% 10%
Kyle Bradish SP BAL 5% 7% 2%
Josh Winder RP MIN 4% 18% 14%

Relievers: Saves-based ranks.

Anthony Bender: Good reliever who is the closer.

Jhoan Duran: Elite reliever who is sharing the closer’s duties.

Ryan Helsley: Elite reliever who might be sharing the closer’s duties.

Ryan Thompson: Below-average closer who is sharing closer’s duties.

Rafael Montero: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Clay Holmes: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Ryan Tepera: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Trevor Stephan: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Ian Kennedy: Good reliever who is back to being the backup closer.

Brock Burke: Elite reliever who needs a couple of guys to falter to get Saves.

A.J. Puk: Good reliever who needs a couple of guys to falter to get Saves.

Drew Smith: Good reliever who needs a couple of guys to falter to get Saves.

Anthony Bass: OK reliever who needs a couple of guys to falter to get Saves.

Michael King: Elite multi-inning reliever who is not in the closing mix.

Dillon Peters: A below-average multi-inning reliever.

Adam Cimber: Below-average reliever who has lucked into 4 Wins.

CBS Reliever Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Anthony Bender RP MIA 36% 45% 9%
Michael King RP NYY 34% 45% 11%
Jhoan Duran RP MIN 29% 39% 10%
Adam Cimber RP TOR 13% 16% 3%
Clay Holmes RP NYY 12% 19% 7%
Ian Kennedy RP ARI 10% 15% 5%
A.J. Puk RP OAK 8% 10% 2%
Ryan Tepera RP LAA 8% 10% 2%
Brock Burke RP TEX 6% 8% 2%
Ryan Helsley RP STL 6% 39% 33%
Dillon Peters RP PIT 5% 7% 2%
Rafael Montero RP HOU 4% 11% 7%
Drew Smith RP NYM 4% 8% 4%
Anthony Bass RP MIA 2% 4% 2%
Ryan Thompson RP TB 1% 4% 3%
Trevor Stephan RP CLE 1% 3% 2%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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alang3131982member
1 year ago

How would you rank Otto, Dunning, Stripling

airforce21one
1 year ago
Reply to  alang3131982

Alphabetically