Waiver Wire Report (Week 13)

It’s catcher week with eight of them seeing their rostership jump. Otherwise, it’s a lot of the same players who are slowly seeing their rostership climb.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Daz Cameron: He’s been on fire since being called up (.278/.333/.583, 3 HR, 3 SB) with both his walks (3% to 8%) and strikeouts (32% to 28%) improving from last year. He’s now started four of five games and it feels like this might be the last time to cheaply roster him if he continues at his current pace.

Adam Duvall: Remains a steady power plus (16 HR), batting average negative (.220 AVG) bat. The five stolen bases so far have been a surprising addition.

J.P. Crawford: A balanced profile (5 HR, 3 SB) who is providing a decent batting average (.285 AVG) so far this season. Not every rostered player can be a star.

Jesús Sánchez: He has not fallen on his face like some prospects and will not get demoted with a .696 OPS. The power is nice with half his hits so far going for extra bases. Additionally, his strikeout rate is under 30% after being almost 40% last season. The biggest knock against him so far this season is the one walk (3% BB%) in 38 PA. A must roster to see where his talent stabilizes.

Steven Duggar: He’s on the strong side of a platoon with Austin Slater. This week, Duggar was unstartable with the Giants scheduled for five games against three lefties. Next week, his playing time should be up since the Giants face 5 righties.

Akil Baddoo: He continues to crush right-handed pitching (.996 OPS, 5 HR, 8 SB) while lefties own him (.330 OPS). The split means he sits against lefties, but for this upcoming week, he’s probably a start since Detroit is scheduled to face five righties.

Tony Kemp: He’s been a surprise this season hitting .345/.396/.655 with 4 HR and 4 SB. He looked to have a full-time role, but over the last six games, he sat three times against lefties. He’s a fine addition in daily formats. In weekly lineups, Oakland is scheduled to face only four righties next week so he’s probably a bench bat for those starts.

Myles Straw: It looked like he might be out of a job after struggling in May (.637 OPS, 1 for 4 in SB attempts), but he been on fire in June hitting .329/.393/.452 with 4 SB. I gambled in a few places that Chas McCormick would take his center field spot but lost that bet. Straw even led off for a game this week. While he’s a void in most categories, he is one of the few stolen base sources on the Waiver Wire.

Jake Bauers: A .557 OPS with Cleveland and .758 OPS with Seattle. A .400 BABIP (.239 BABIP with Cleveland) is behind the jump in production. It’s not all luck with what seems to be a leveling of his bat path. With Cleveland, his launch angle average 18 degrees (36% GB%, 7% Popup%). With Seattle, the angle is down to 7 degrees (44% GB%, 2%). Even by lowering his launch angle some, he’s been able to keep the same barrel rate. It’s a talent change, but it’s tough to know where it’ll stabilize.

Harold Ramirez: A steady producer (6 HR, 2 HR) with an above-average .279 AVG. He is starting to lose playing time to Josh Naylor (.706 OPS) and Bradley Zimmer (.573 OPS).

Luis Urías: With Vogelbach on the IL, Urias is now hitting second. While his .237 AVG is not ideal (.281 over the past month), he’s hitting for some power (8 HR) and providing some steals (3 SB).

Yonathan Daza: Not a good start this past week with the Rockies only having five road games. This upcoming week looks ideal to stream Rockies hitters with seven home games against suspect starters (vs PIT and STL). While Daza has been a decent source of batting average (.323) he barely has any steals (2) or home runs (2).

Abraham Toro: He will continue to get full-time at-bats for a couple more weeks while Bregman is on the IL. He’s hit decent at .282/.378/.436 with 2 HR and 1 SB. in 45 PA.

Taylor Ward: He’s performed fine (.234 AVG, 7 HR, 1 SB) with a .802 OPS in June.

Keston Hiura: Maybe his third chance in the majors will be the charm. He wasn’t able to make contact in the majors (39% K%) or in AAA (29%). His profile was on display Friday with a home run and two strikeouts. I’d approach him as a bench bat to plugin for an injury while waiting for him to prove he can first hit for a week or two.

Shed Long Jr.: He’s shown a little bit of power (2 HR) and not much else (.234 AVG, 0 SB) in 49 PA.

Wilmer Flores: He’s been fine (.260 AVG, 7 HR, 1 SB) while only playing half the time. Find a regular bat to roster.

Nicky Lopez: I was a little confused seeing Lopez being added, but he has stolen seven bases and is hitting .346/.443/.365 in June.

Catchers

Jorge Alfaro: His batting average remains fine (.250, .261 for his career) with little power. The one bonus for him is that he has been running some this season with four stolen bases.

Yan Gomes: He’s a fine catching option. Decent power (7 HR) and not a sink in batting average (.247 AVG).

Tyler Stephenson: He’s getting more plate appearances, he’s not separated himself (.269 AVG, 4 HR) from the other catcher options unless it’s an on-base league (13% BB%, .384 OBP).

Ryan Jeffers: The power is nice (5 HR in 100 PA), but a 35% K% is keeping his batting average down (.204 AVG).

Luis Torrens: Since being recalled, he’s hitting .375/.400/1.042 with five home runs in 25 PA. I spent some time trying to see if there was a documented change, but I could not find any.

Reese McGuire: A .393 BABIP has his batting average at an enticing .321. His xAVG is a .269, right at his career .267 AVG. Regression is expected.

Jacob Stallings: Feels like a replacement level catcher with below-average power (5 HR) and batting average (.226 AVG).

Daulton Varsho: With all the hopes and dreams of Varsho repeating the 20 SB of 2019 are gone. Even as a catcher, a .154/.228/.212 slash line is not going to cut it.

Hitting Prospects

Jarren Duran: The Boston prospect is hitting .294/.382/.615, 13 HR, 8 SB so far this season in AAA. His call-up might be on hold because of his commitment to the U.S. Olympic team.

Cal Raleigh: Seattle catching prospect who is hitting .345/.396/.655 with 8 HR and 3 SB in AAA.

Wander Franco: The San Francisco version is even getting some love.

Starters

Alex Cobb: He has to be one of the most unlucky pitchers with a .346 BABIP and 60% LOB% leading to a 4.41 ERA. So far he has a 11.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 61% GB%. Buy the dip where possible. (Note: I wrote this before his Saturday blowup, but I still stand by the ranking)

Ross Stripling: In late May, he made some mechanical adjustments dropping his June ERA down to 3.09 to go with a 0.99 WHIP. He should have been rostered for a couple of weeks, but add where still available.

Zach Thompson: If he continues to throw as he has in his first four starts (12.5 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 2.00 ERA, mid-3.00 ERA estimators), he’s a game-changer. All his pitches so far have an above-average swinging-strike rate. While a chance exists that he’ll be demoted if the rest of the staff gets healthy, he’s a must-add in all formats with so little starting pitching on the waiver wire.

Patrick Sandoval: He has a great floor with possibly the league’s best changeup (33% SwStr%, 59% GB%). It might helpful if he threw his slider a bit more (12% usage, 20% SwStr%). Also, he’s on the edge for allowing too many walks (3.5 BB/9), but he’s never exceeded more than two per start. It’s not pretty but it works.

Chris Flexen 플렉센: A low-strikeout (6.1 K/9) and walk (1.7 BB/9) pitcher who fantasy managers can confidently start 80% of the time.

Kolby Allard: He continues to be an acceptable starter with a 3.46 ERA (estimators near 4.00) and 1.00 WHIP. He’s getting by with a diverse four-pitch arsenal and not walking anyone (1.4 BB/9).

Joe Ross: He continues to be lights out since be started featuring his sinker in late May (2.31 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 0.91 WHIP). The only hesitation with rostering Ross is that he’ll tinker his way out of the improvements.

Sammy Long: In three appearances so far, he’s been a surprise with a 4.20 ERA (ERA estimators near 3.00), 9.6 K/9, and a 0.87 WHIP. He’s done it buy staying away from his 93-mph fastball (41% usage) and relying on his curve (14% SwStr%) and change (24% usage).

Matt Manning: While the results have been great (3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), regression is likely coming (ERA estimators around 6.00) unless he increases his strikeout rate (3.4 K/9). He’s thrown his fastball two-thirds of the time and his “plus” curveball has yet to generate one swing-and-miss.

Erick Fedde: I thought he solved his walk issues (4.1 BB/9), but he walked seven combined batters in the last two starts. He’s been able to maintain a decent WHIP (1.23) because of a .243 BABIP. Streaming option.

Caleb Smith: He’s an extreme flyball pitcher (28% GB%) who hasn’t given up a ton of home runs (0.9 HR/9). And when the blowup happens, he could be spectacular since Smith has a 4.6 BB/9. Home runs and walks are usually an explosive combination.

Tylor Megill: The Met lasted 4.1 IP in his debut. It would be nice to have a bit more to go off of but a few signs are encouraging. His projections like his minor league results and have him around 4.00 ERA talent. His fastball sat at 95 mph. His slider got five swings-and-misses on 19 pitches. Roster and monitor his next start.

Bailey Ober: He remains an interesting arm who is getting hit around right now (1.69 HR/9, .345 BABIP) leading to a 4.64 ERA (estimators around 4.00). I am expecting some major strikeout regression with none of his pitches having an average swing-and-miss rate.

Jerad Eickhoff: His career numbers (4.11 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.28 WHIP) are fine for a streaming option. With his fastball velocity near his career levels (90.4 mph vs 90.6 mph), I’d expect a near 4.00 ERA pitcher going forward. There is some upside since he threw is slider more than his curve for the first time in his career. His slider (18% SwStr%) has always missed more bats than his curve (14% SwStr%). I’d like to see another MLB start or two before believing in any major improvements.

Merrill Kelly 켈리: His ERA estimators point to a low-4.00 ERA talent, but a 65% LOB% has his actual ERA over 5.00. I would hold off from expecting some LOB% regression. He seems to be a different pitcher with runners on base. His xFIP jumps from 3.60 with the bases empty to 4.55 with runners on base. The weird part is that it’s not from strikeouts or walks (14.2 K%-BB% vs 14.5 K%-BB%), it from fewer groundballs (48% vs 36%) and therefore more homers (8% HR/FB% to 21% HR/FB%). He doesn’t throw his curve (62% GB%) as much with runners on base and throws his changeup (44% GB%) more. It’s a lot on Merrill Kelly, but there seems to be a combination that should work better for him.

Johan Oviedo: I’ve yet to understand why his rostership continues to rise. I wonder if it’s from a 3.79 ERA in June. Maybe it’s because of his great slider (22% SwStr%). Or the two-step against Detroit (4.91 ERA, 2.45 WHIP) and Pittsburgh (Sunday). Ignore for now.

Drew Smyly: He’s been more productive in June with a 2.84 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The key for the turnaround was a 0.7 HR/9 since his K%-BB% dropped to a season-low 10%. The normal ups-and-downs of a normal season are happening with his ERA and estimators being right inline (4.79 ERA vs 4.92 xFIP vs 4.68 SIERA).

Starting Pitcher Prospects

Hunter Greene: After dominating AA (1.98 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), he’s struggled a bit in his first couple AAA starts (4 HR and BB in 9 IP).

Relievers: Saves-based rankings

José Alvarado: An OK reliever with the closer’s role.

Greg Holland: Below-average reliever who keeps getting a chance to close.

Michael Fulmer: Good reliever who may be the closer or in a closer committee.

Brad Brach: An OK reliever who may now be the closer until Lucas Sims returns.

Tejay Antone: Great reliever who may luck into a few Saves.

Collin McHugh: Good middle reliever who can vulture a few Wins.

Jonathan Loaisiga: OK middle reliever who can vulture a few Wins.