Waiver Wire Pool & League Size

I’m going to start by picking on Jon today. In a recent article on Deep League Stolen Base Options, he wrote the following in the comments:

Nice thoughts, but are any of these guys actually available in any “normal” (e.g. AL or NL-only) deep leagues? I don’t think there’s any useful way to use ESPN ownership rate as a proxy for deep league availability. I’m sure there are many players with a sub-1% ownership rate that are taken in nearly every “only” league.

I get his point that in 12-team ‘Only Leagues, there are no players on the waiver wire at 1% ownership, yet alone 5%. In Jon’s case, his best option to get steals is probably from making trades. There is a transition depending on league size where team rebalancing transitions from waiver wire pickups to trades.

To begin the discussion, we need to find the point when no regulars are available on the waiver wire. I’ll assume 8.5 regular hitters (DH in AL) and 6 pitchers (5 starters and 1 closer) per MLB team are available to use. Some players will be in platoons but assuming one player per position it is a good starting spot.

Besides the standard 22 roster spots (13 hitting, 9 pitching), most teams have bench spots. I’m going to assume a six-person bench with two spots for hitters and two spots for pitchers. The final two spots being allocated for prospects. This setup will be different for every league but it provides a decent framework for the discussion.

Here are the number of players rostered at any time using these assumptions (remember to half the teams total for an ‘Only league):

With 30 teams, there are 255 hitters (8.5 *30) and 180 pitchers (6 * 30) in the player pool. This lineup and bench size leads to all starters owned around 16 to 17 teams. This matches up with my recent experience.

When I won Tout-league 12-team H2H league last year, I didn’t make a single trade. Instead of spending my limited time looking to trade players, I just picked up my needs off the waiver wire. On the other hand, my 20-team, 40 man roster deep dynasty league, no one is on the waiver wire (hello Manny Pina and Eric Sogard). The only way to make significant moves is via trades.

Jon falls into this deep league class. He just needs to be aggressive on the wire and try to get as many regulars as possible. With a possible surplus, an owner can then trade the excess players off for needs. In 18-team or deeper leagues, this is how the waiver wire plays out. It’s for adding any possible starter, not filling team needs. All teams in these deep leagues can basically ignore any waiver wire piece, they’re useless. Sadly, this situation is just part of the game.

Between these two leagues is my 15-team Tout Wars league. Regulars are available but owners feel dirty for using them. On the pitching front, regulars available are Mike Pelfrey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Ricky Nolasco. There are replacements, just not anyone good. In this league, teams have the option to pick up these scraps or they can work out a surplus/need trade. I feel like a nice mix exists.

Now, one dynamic is starting to come more into play at this point in the season, which changes this mix, and that’s absentee owners. It happens in every league. Some quit once the draft is over. For some, it’s when they find out their $9 pitching staff won’t work. But for most, it happens right now with football season starting up. If their team isn’t in contention, they will change their focus to football.

When owners start paying less attention, the talent level for players on the waiver wire increases. It’s not a ton but active owners in deep leagues will see better players available as the season winds down.

As the talent increases on the waiver and possibly even before then, understand that every time a writer says, “Must be owned in all 12-team leagues”, it may not apply to your team. Owners reading a baseball article in August are probably a step or two ahead of their opponents. Their team is probably already be stacked while others have demoted and/or DL’ed players on their active roster. These are the teams who should be adding and taking chances on the fringy players.

Basically, the player pool will loosen up as the season drags on. While I’m late for this advice, I like to be aggressive early in the season picking up players and assume they will cheaper later for the preceding reasons.

Jon is probably the exception as most owners will not be 18-team or deeper league. Most leagues will be in the 10 to 15 team variety where regulars are available on the wire. The larger the league, the more its owners need to rely on trades to fill team needs instead of picking them up from the wire.