Waiver Wire & FAAB Report (Week 4)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Note The number of hitters moving up this week is way more than on a normal week. I think injuries and no obvious adds made for a wide variety of players. Additionally, several shortstops went on the IL (e.g. Anderson and Seager) putting some lowly rostered players on people’s radars.

Batters

Zach Neto: The top prospect is getting the promotion to be the Angels shortstop. He was hitting .444/.559/.815 with 3 HR and 3 SB in AA. Projections have him hitting .244/.304/.370 which isn’t the worst for a 22-year-old being promoted from AA. My only worry is that he might have a hole in his swing because of the 14% SwStr%.

Spencer Steer: I think the 25-year-old is a must-roster in any league to see if he can continue producing (.326/.420/.558, 2 HR, 1 SB).

Edouard Julien: Julien’s balanced profile of power, speed, and great plate discipline will make him an insanely high bid this week in FAAB leagues. In AAA, the top prospect was slashing .290/.421/.548 before being called up. The biggest question around will be how long will he stay up once Jorge Polanco is done with his minor league rehab stint. Polanco started his rehab stint on the sixth so he has to join the major league team by the 26th (or quit it like Votto). Polanco will be stuck at second (only 2B in rehab stats) with the DH occupied (Buxton) or Julien would have to pick up a new position. If Julien gets demoted back to AAA, don’t be surprised.

Chas McCormick: Hitting (.275/.370/.500, 2 HR, 4 SB) and leading off for the Astros.

TJ Friedl: He probably needs to be rostered across the board while providing power (2 HR, .244 ISO) and average (.333 AVG). Hopefully, the steals come at some point (17 SB in ’22).

David Villar: Solid hitter (.211/.333/.474) with some power (3 HR) and speed (1 SB). The batting average can be a drag. He should gain second-base eligibility by the end of the month.

Ji Hwan Bae: His strikeouts are way up (16% to 26%) since teams have quit throwing him fastballs (64% FB% to 48%). His batting average has taken a hit (.238) but has 2 HR and 4 SB on the season. He’s got seven games at second and eight in the outfield to add to his shortstop eligibility.

J.D. Davis: He has started six straight games (4 vs LHP, 2 vs RHP) and is hitting .324/.366/.595 with 3 HR so far. Has two games at first base.

Garrett Cooper: A productive hitter so far (.370/.408/.630, 3 HR) and has started all but two games.

Brandon Marsh: He’s not starting against lefties but has six righties on the schedule this week (4 in 1H). He’s great when playing (1.231 OPS). He seems to be selling out for contact with his strikeouts down from 34% to 23% and a 56% GB%. Roster to see where this ends up.

Myles Straw: He’s getting on base (.415 OBP) and running (6 SB) with no power (.047 ISO).

Bryson Stott: A .511 BABIP is the main driver behind his production (.383/.393/.467, 3 SB). There is no power (0 HR, .083 ISO) even though he’s getting fed a ton of fastballs (63%).

Carlos Santana: Playing (started 13 of 14) and hitting fine (.250/.333/.479). The AVG might stick with the shift ban. Steady deep-league option.

Patrick Wisdom: Flashbacks to 2021 when he posted an HR/FB over 30% and an ~.230 AVG.

Brent Rooker: He’s hit 3rd or 4th for four straight games while batting .346/.379/.808 with 4 HR on the season.

Trevor Larnach: Hitting near the top of the order. He’s upped his launch angle (13 degrees to 21) but only has 2 Barrels on the season.

Rodolfo Castro: Started five of the last six games since Cruz went on the IL. He’s hitting a decent .296/.441/.444 with 1 HR.

Alex Call: He’s sort of hitting (.233/.352/.326, 1 HR, 0 SB) and has leadoff for seven straight games.

Oswaldo Cabrera: Started in eight of the last nine games at four different positions (2B, SS, 3B, OF) but only has a .629 OPS.

Mauricio Dubón: Started five straight at second base while hitting (.350/.381/.425 0 SB, 0 HR).

Joey Wiemer: Becoming a batting average drain (.195 AVG) but a 15% BB% helps in points and OBP formats. He does have a steal and two home runs so far.

Jake Burger: He might get a week’s worth of run with Yoan Moncada on the IL. He’s at some extremes in just 14 PA (117 maxEV, 43% K%, .400 BABIP).

Lane Thomas: Starting while hitting with an empty batting average (.315/.373/.352, .425 BABIP) but a couple stolen bases (2 SB).

Josh Lowe: He’s hitting (.333/.389/.727) especially for power (3 HR, .394 ISO) but only starts against rights (vs 5 RHP next week, 3 on the weekend).

Franchy Cordero: He’s been on fire (1.014 OPS) during this stretch of games where the Yankees have only faced right-handed starters. The streak comes to an end next week when there are only three games with a righty starter. I don’t think a person can go into next week counting on him.

Alec Burleson: With Nootbaar off the IL, Burleson’s playing time needs to be monitored. Burleson was already just starting against righties (vs 5 RHP next week, 3 on the weekend).

Luke Raley: Only starts against righties (5 next week, 3 on the weekend). He’s hitting for power (3 HR, .367 ISO) but his batting average might be a drain (.233 AVG, 28% K%).

Kevin Kiermaier: He hasn’t started more than three games in a row (10 of 14) but is hitting (.366/.366/.537, 1 HR).

Harold Ramirez: While he’s hitting (.323/.382/.710, 3 HR), he has not played more than three games in a row.

Andrew McCutchen: He’s hitting (.316/.451/.474, 1 HR, 3 SB), but playing time can be sporadic (started in four of the last six).

Manuel Margot: A .185 BABIP has him with a .200 AVG but he does have 2 HR and 2 SB. His playing time can come and go having started in 10 of 14 games but just two of the last four.

Gio Urshela: Started in 11 of 13 games, but hitting for batting average (.341 AVG) but little else (1 SB, 0 HR, .045 ISO). Has played six games at shortstop. Could be moving to second with the promotion of Neto.

Victor Robles: He’s batting at the end of the lineup but playing every day while hitting some (.326/.408/.372, 0 HR, 2 SB).

Lenyn Sosa: He started the last two games as the White Sox’s second baseman. Projections have him hitting .248/.292/.391 with close to 20 HR over a full season.

Edmundo Sosa: He starts about two-thirds of the games at third base while hitting .300/.313/.567 on the season.[Note: Monitor a Saturday injury]

Adam Frazier: He’s started against all righties and half the lefties (5 games next week, 3 lefties). He’s turning into a decent streamer but not for this upcoming week (5 games, 3 LHP).

Orlando Arcia: He is on the IL and will be out for at least a couple of weeks. He’s going to be a tough roster/drop decision with the lack of available shortstop options.

Jason Heyward: Heyward is hitting for power (.500 ISO, 3 HR) but not much else (.286 OBP). I’d be more interested in him if he was playing every day, but he’s only started in two of the last seven games. Possibly more playing time with Joc Pederson to the IL.

Akil Baddoo: Since being promoted, he has started in four of six games while hitting (.250/.400/.313).

Kyle Farmer: He was playing but Correa got healthy and Julien got promoted. Probably not hitting enough to force himself back into the lineup (.226/.286/.355).

Nelson Cruz: Has started seven times, six times against a lefty. The team only faces one next week.

Geraldo Perdomo and Nick Ahmed: Are in the same platoon and I have zero faith either can keep up their BABIP-fueled hot starts to the season (Perdomo: 1.218 OPS, .571 BABIP, Ahmed: .889 OPS, .478 BABIP).

Wilmer Flores: Only starts against lefties and only three are on the schedule for next week. Ignore him until the following week.

Stone Garrett: Has only started in three games since being promoted.

Nolan Jones: Since being promoted, he hasn’t started.

Royce Lewis: On 60-day IL. Plans to join a minor league team mid-May.

Catchers

Shea Langeliers: Finally got the 10th game at catcher to be qualified there in all formats will hitting .775 OPS with 3 HR.

Elias Díaz: A .419 BABIP means he’s hitting .357/.426/.571 on the season.

Mike Zunino: Hitting for a surprising .286 AVG (31% K%, .438 BABIP).

Jason Delay: Starting most of the time while hitting: .250/.333/.417.

Hitting Prospects/Minor Leaguers

Jackson Chourio: He’s hitting .207/.258/.517 with 3 HR in AAA.

Jo Adell: He’s hitting .340/.435/.887 with 8 HR in AAA.

Elly De La Cruz: A hamstring injury has kept him from playing this year.

Starters

Taj Bradley: Bradley debuted this week, shoved (8K in 5 IP), and was demoted. The Rays just lost Springs for a few months so expect Bradley back up soon.

Anthony DeSclafani: He has yet to walk a batter this year and when paired with an 8.0 K/9 and 52% GB%, good results will happen. He has been throwing a “sinker” (9% SwStr%) along with his slider (12%) and change (12%).

Matt Strahm: I know he might not make the transition to starting but it has gone smoothly so far, especially with the strikeouts (11.4 K/9). His 3.6 walk rate is right on the edge of being an issue. His average fastball velocity has stabilized around 93 mph.

Braxton Garrett: With a rotation spot, he is a must-roster in all leagues with a 9.0 K/9 and a sub-2.0 BB/9.

Domingo Germán: On Saturday, he lowered his ERA to 3.86 and raised his K/9 to 12.2. The biggest change so far this that his four-seamer is missing more bats (6% SwStr to 12%).

Kris Bubic: After his blowup on Saturday night (5 ER in 5 IP), he still stands at a 9.0 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9 and 3.94 ERA.

Johan Oviedo: He’s got the walks under control (4.7 BB/9 with PIT last year, now 2.5 BB/9) and the groundballs (57% GB%) and strikeouts (9.3 K/9) have remained.

Michael Soroka: He has made two rehab starts and threw four innings in the last one. His rehab fastball velocity (92.6 mph) is in line with previous values. Additionally, his slider velocity is up about 2 mph (81.5 mph to 83.3) since the last time he threw.

Bryce Elder: His transformation late last season by leaning into his slider (17% SwStr%) and generating groundballs (50% GB%) continues.

Griffin Canning: He looked good in his first start with his velocity in line with last season and no walks. In the start, each of his pitches had a swinging-strike rate of over 17%. He has a start this week and then everything will be up in the air.

Brayan Bello: He made one AAA rehab start and is projected to start on Monday. His sinker velocity was down from 96.4 to 95.7 but did have a 9% SwStr%. The biggest takeaway from the start was that he allow no walks after posting a 4.2 BB/9 last season.

Bailey Falter: He’s pitching like Greinke (low K, BB, and FBv) but on a better team. He messed with his pitch mix (more curves and changes) and his four-seamer has a 62% GB%.

Drey Jameson: A 100% LOB% has him with a 1.46 ERA (4.38 xFIP) but he’s at least getting some strikeouts (8.8 K/9).

Tanner Houck: The strikeouts (9.6 K/9) are fine, but he’s allowing too many walks (4.5 K/9) and it shows with a 4.50 ERA. His fastball groundball rate is up to 67% GB%.

Brad Keller: He’s added an elite curveball (23% SwStr%, 53% GB%) but the other pitches he throws are below average. And he’s having issues finding the plate (4.2 BB/9).

Peyton Battenfield: Another Greinke clone with low strikeouts and walks but a little faster baseball (92 mph). While his fastball didn’t miss any bats his cutter (38% SwStr%, 33% in AAA) and curve (25% SwStr%, 16% in AAA) did. There is a chance he generates fieldable contact with batters swinging under or over his pitches. BaseballHQ reported he had five pitches so it looks like he ditched his slider or cutter.

Zack Greinke: Greinke is doing Greinke things. He’s not walking anyone but not really striking anyone out. Use as a streamer.

Jhony Brito: With a 96-mph fastball (that doesn’t miss bats) and a changeup with a 22% SwStr%, he should be better but he’s not. Teams have been stacking lefties against him, but he doesn’t have a way to get out righties (vs 1.284 OPS).

Ryan Weathers: Even with a 95-mph fastball, he is not missing bats (4.5 K/9). His changeup is missing bats (15% SwStr%) but not his slider that did last season (21% SwStr%).

Nick Pivetta: As I write this, Pivetta has yet to throw on Saturday. On the season, he has a 0.90 ERA in 10 IP but a 5.07 FIP and 4.78 xFIP. He’s allowing a ton of home runs (1.8 HR/9) and walks (4.5 BB/9) but a 97.6% LOB% is saving him.

Tylor Megill: He’s not the same pitcher as last season with his fastball velocity down 1.7 mph and his walk rate up from 2.5 BB/9 to 3.9 BB/9. A 93% LOB% has kept his 2.25 ERA way under his ERA estimators (4.68 FIP, 4.91 xFIP).

Alex Wood: He is like a time bomb about to explode with a 5.9 BB/9 (1.57 WHIP) and just a 30% GB%. Once he starts to allow some home runs, his ERA could balloon closer to this 6.39 xFIP.

Wade Miley: Everything (0.8 HR/9, .257 BABIP, 87% LOB%) is going his way to keep his 2.45 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in check with his ERA estimators near 5.00 (4.55 FIP, 5.47 xFIP, 5.40 SIERA).

Marco Gonzales: Throwing 88-mph fastballs and walking everyone (4.2 BB/9). Just a streamer option.

Ryne Nelson: Both his ERA and K/9 are at 4.91 which is never a good sign. And his walk rate is up at 4.1 BB/9. Pass for now.

Chris Flexen 플렉센: Not a good sign when your WHIP and HR/9 are over 2.0. No strikeouts and too many walks. Ignore.

Hunter Gaddis: He has been bad (8.53 ERA) in many ways. The craziest stat showing his ineptitude is just a 4% SwStr% on his second most-thrown pitch, a slider.

Kyle Freeland: A two-start week with the first game at home against the Pirates and then on the road against the Phillies (Wheeler). Don’t expect the 100% LOB% to stick and stay away from these matchups.

Pitching Prospects

Matthew Liberatore has a 1.06 ERA, 12.7 K/9, and 1.00 in AAA.

Tanner Bibee has a 0.00 ERA, 12.3 K/9, and 0.73 WHIP in AAA

Relievers – Saves-based ranks

Reynaldo López: Decent reliever who is the closer.

Andrew Chafin: OK reliever who will get some Save changes, especially against lefties.

Jose Quijada: Good reliever who is getting some Save chances.

Pierce Johnson: Relow-average reliever who is the closer.

Carl Edwards Jr.: Below-average reliever who might be in the mix for Saves.

Aroldis Chapman: Possibly elite reliever who is the backup closer

Erik Swanson: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

José Alvarado: Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Jorge López Good reliever who is the backup closer.

Matt Brash: Decent reliever who is the backup closer for now.

Colin Holderman: Below-average reliever who is the backup closer.

Adbert Alzolay: Good reliever who is getting closer to a closing role.

Yimi Garcia: Average reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.

Nick Anderson: Good reliever who might be a few steps away from closing.

Steven Wilson: Good reliever who is not close to getting Saves.

Brent Honeywell Jr.: OK reliever who is not close to getting Saves.

Eli Morgan: OK reliever who is not close to getting Saves.

Jakob Junis: OK reliever who is not close to getting Saves.

Jesse Chavez: Below-average reliever who is not close to getting Saves.