Waiver Wire and FAAB Report (Week 23)
Rhona Wise-Imagn Images
In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Batters
Heriberto Hernandez: I have no idea why Hernandez’s roster rate stays under 40%. Over the last two weeks, he was the 27th-rated hitter. In fewer than 400 PA, he has 21 HR and 8 SB. It’s just weird to me.
Tristan Peters: He’s on fire in August, batting .343/.429/.701 with 6 HR. Started 11 straight games.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: A power add if he continues to start (six straight) with 7 HR and a .272 AVG in 123 PA.
Tim Tawa: Unheralded production with 9 HR and 7 SB with a .246 AVG in 257 PA while qualified at first, third, and outfield.
Pedro Ramírez: He has 13 straight starts at second base while providing balanced production (4 HR, 7 SB, and .285 AVG).
Henry Bolte: A nice source of speed (14 SB) while not a zero in power and batting average. Might move off centerfield when Denzel Clarke returns.
Kaelen Culpepper: Besides not attempting a steal, he’s been great so far with 3 HR and a .905 OPS in 60 PA. I’m surprised I will need to write him up next week with his roster rate on 40%.
Walker Jenkins: Jenkins was solid in AAA this season, batting .308/.407/.532 with 12 HR and 17 SB. His comps based on age, AAA playing time, Contact%, and power are solid for a 21-year-old.
Connor Norby: Started seven straight games with some power and speed, but a 30% K% has him with a .220 AVG. He does have six games in Colorado next week.
Javier Sanoja: Starting at third base while providing batting average help (.280 AVG) with 6 HR and 9 SB.
Matt McLain: Since coming off the IL in late July, he is batting .194/.276/.398 with 5 HR and 5 SB in 106 PA. If a team can absorb the batting average hit, he’s a nice accumulator.
Brett Bateman: Hits leadoff for the Blue Jays with a .329 AVG and 2 SB in 79 PA. One issue is that he doesn’t hit for power (0% Barrel%) and puts everything on the ground (64% GB%).
Andrew Vaughn: Started in six of the last ten games while helping with a .309 AVG and not much else (5 HR and 0 SB in 289 PA).
Coby Mayo: He hits dongs (18 HR) but not much else (33% K%, .216 AVG). Also, his playing time may take a hit with Blaze Alexander off the IL.
Hao-Yu Lee: Started in nine straight games and hits second against lefties. He has some power (7 HR) but not enough to make a difference. And no steals
Nick Sogard: he must have the emptiest 169 PA with 2 HR, 0 SB, and .257 AVG from the leadoff position.
Joey Ortiz: His playing time jumps around, and he might be on the short side of a platoon even though he hits righties better than lefties. I think he’d be a nice add if playing all the time.
Jordan Lawlar: I’m not sure the .273 AVG (.349 AVG) will last, but it’s nice to see the 80% Contact% and his strikeout rate down to 27% K%. One issue is that he has only started in four of the last seven games. That’s rough.
Dylan Beavers: He wasn’t starting against lefties, but has started against them twice in the last four games. Even if he gets going, he hasn’t done much this year with 6 HR, 5 SB, and .249 in 265 PA. Bad volume play.
Jeff McNeil: His playing time is starting to take a hit with just three starts in the last five games. All three of those starts came at different positions (2B, DH, 1B). He’s back to being a utility bat.
Andrés Chaparro: Only four starts in the last eight games. When he does play, he hits home runs with 9 HR in 163 PA this year.
Kyle Isbel: Strong-side platoon bat who has been substandard his whole career (career 78 wRC+). Even if he has all righties on the schedule, he’s not good enough to start.
Catchers
Keibert Ruiz: For the season, which he has only played part of, he’s the 12th-ranked catcher. If it weren’t for eliminated fantasy teams, I’d expect some manager could use an improvement at catcher.
Rafael Flores Jr.: Hitting for power (6 HR in 82), but struggling to make contact (31% K%, 68% Contact%, .233 AVG).
Mickey Gasper: While he’s been great (.838 OPS) in a limited time in the majors, he seems to be on the strong side of a DH platoon.
Injured Hitters
Trevor Story: He is still on a rehab assignment where he is struggling (.156/.176/.156 with a 29% K%).
Hitting Prospects
Ralphy Velazquez: Across two minor league levels (AA and AAA), the 21-year-old first baseman hit .292/.377/.559 with 28 HR and 2 SB in 486 PA.
Seaver King: Across two minor league levels (AA and AAA), the 23-year-old shortstop hit .318/.400/.545 with 18 HR and 14 SB in 423 PA.
Rainiel Rodriguez: Across two minor league levels (A+ and AA), the 19-year-old catcher hit .315/.403/.559 with 23 HR and 10 SB in 479 PA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Story | 37% | 40% | 3% |
| Henry Bolte | 36% | 41% | 5% |
| Walker Jenkins | 35% | 53% | 18% |
| Keibert Ruiz | 35% | 40% | 5% |
| Jordan Lawlar | 34% | 36% | 2% |
| Kaelen Culpepper | 32% | 38% | 6% |
| Andrew Vaughn | 32% | 34% | 2% |
| Matt McLain | 30% | 36% | 6% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 29% | 30% | 1% |
| Javier Sanoja | 22% | 33% | 11% |
| Tim Tawa | 21% | 30% | 9% |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 21% | 26% | 5% |
| Jeff McNeil | 18% | 25% | 7% |
| Coby Mayo | 18% | 22% | 4% |
| Rafael Flores | 17% | 23% | 6% |
| Tristan Peters | 16% | 38% | 22% |
| Ralphy Velazquez | 16% | 22% | 6% |
| Pedro Ramirez | 14% | 26% | 12% |
| Dylan Beavers | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Rainiel Rodriguez | 14% | 15% | 1% |
| Joseph Ortiz | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Seaver King | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Connor Norby | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Andres Chaparro | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Hao Yu Lee | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Brett Bateman | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Nick Sogard | 2% | 13% | 11% |
| Kyle Isbel | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Mickey Gasper | 1% | 11% | 10% |
Starting Pitchers
Andrew Painter: Besides a blowup against the Twins (5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 5 IP) three starts ago, he has been lights over his last five starts with just 9 ER (2.86 ERA) and 30 K in 28.1 IP. Any pitcher throwing this well should have already been scooped up. Must add in all leagues.
Jacob Lopez: Another must-add to end the season. He’s thrown great in the second half (2.27 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9). His projected schedule is ideal. He is at Seattle next week, then a two-step against Toronto and Seattle, and finally faces Cleveland.
Zebby Matthews: Since late July, Matthews has become more than a part-time streamer. His 8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 are fine, but he has upped his groundball rate to 55%, with it over 50% for each game. During that stretch, he has a 3.74 ERA (3.53 xFIP, 4.40 botERA) and 1.25 WHIP. He was at the White Sox this week and faces them again next week with the Guardians and Angels after that.
Grayson Rodriguez: Starting from his last July start, he got the walks under control (4.4 BB/9 to 3.3 BB/9), and has a 3.03 ERA (3.61 xFIP, 3.31 botERA), 1.19 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9. For now, he is lined up to face the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners in his next three starts.
Ryan Gusto: Gusto has been fine this season (3.98 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 3.71 botERA) and has a two-start week coming up against the Royals and Cubs. There are so many worse options.
Andrew Alvarez: He seemed to get the walks under control with two combined walks on his starts on the 8th and 14th, but the walks returned with 5 BB in his last two starts. The 3.72 ERA (3.80 xFIP, 4.50 botERA) is great, but the walks have led to a 1.35 WHIP. That WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.63 ERA. While he shouldn’t be started against the Dodgers next week, he is lined up to face the Angels and Cardinals after that.
Matthew Liberatore: Liberatore is in a two-start week with the first start being a disaster (8 ER in 4 IP) even though he had a 1.84 xFIP for the game. He’s been extremely unlucky. Of the 22 pitchers with at least a 20% K-BB% in the second half (min 30 IP), his 6.62 ERA is the highest, with the next being 4.43 and then 4.18. All of the rest are at 3.61 or under. The hope is that he finds a way to not get hit around. He intrigues me a ton, and maybe I’ll profile him this week.
Chris Bassitt: Since returning from the IL (fastball velocity up 1 mph), he has a 3.06 ERA (3.97 xFIP), 1.30 WHIP, and 7.1 K/9. This performance is in line with Bassitt’s career numbers.
Cal Quantrill: He’s been great over his last five starts (2.90 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, 4.61 botERA, 0.82 WHIP, 8.3 K/9) but two of those starts were against the Angels. He made a few changes by throwing his four-seamer and splitter more, cutter and curve fewer times, and introduced a slider (0% SwStr%). Right now, he’s lined up for a start against Tampa and then at Seattle. Ranked high based on a possible talent change.
Hayden Wesneski: His results are starting to stabilize, and he appears to be a low-4.00 ERA talent. That worked this week against the Yankees (1 ER and 6 K in 5 IP), but he’s scheduled to face the White Sox, Phillies, Rays, and Braves coming up. I’d try to find another option.
David Peterson: Better with the Cubs (6.09 ERA vs 3.90 ERA) with all his projections, ERA estimators, and STUPH models all over the place (3.75 ERA to 4.75 ERA). I might go with a 4.00 ERA talent but be careful of the 1.36 WHIP in Chicago. His 3.6 BB/9 and groundball nature keep runners on the base paths.
Randy Dobnak: Toronto finally got to the magician with 3 ER in 6 IP to raise his ERA from 1.58 to 1.92. His strikeouts are up with 15 K in the last 15 IP. His WHIP is at 1.47 over his last three starts with a normal BABIP to go along with the 4.0 BB/9.
Randy Vásquez: I’m sure he was added for his start against the Pirates (5 IP, 0 ER, 2 K, 2 BB). His season so far has been middling with a 4.02 ERA (4.87 xFIP), 1.28 WHIP, and 5.6 K/9. He might not have a spot in the rotation with Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta coming off the IL soon.
Dean Kremer: Going into Kremer’s last start, he was solid since joining the Twins with a 3.18 ERA (3.97 xFIP) and 0.88 WHIP. That changed when Kremer allowed 5 ER, 3 BB, and 3 K in 4 IP against the White Sox. He needs to ditch the sinker. It doesn’t do anything (3.7% SwStr%, 38% GB%), has its own lower release point (image), and gets crushed (1.074 vsOPS). He has three solid pitches and needs to focus on them.
George Klassen: He’s starting to get a little more control (3.4 BB/9 over his last three starts, 14.5 BB/9 before that) and could fall into the low-4.00 ERA streaming group. Right now, he’s lined up to face the Yankees next week and the Red Sox after that.
Anthony Kay: Consistently below-average pitcher (low 4.00 ERA talent) who is in a two-start week (vs TEX, at MIN).
José Urquidy: After trending in the right direction before his two-start week, he imploded in the first start ( 5 ER, 4 BB, and just 2 K in 3 IP). Right now, he might not make his Sunday start.
Walker Buehler: A consistent 4.50 ERA talent with no signs of improvement. He might not have a spot in the rotation with Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta coming off the IL soon.
Jeffrey Springs: Added for a two-start week, and the first start didn’t go as planned (4 ER in 4 IP). I’m not sure what his managers expected from a guy with a 6.08 ERA (5.07 xFIP) and 1.50 WHIP.
Elmer Rodríguez: With his production being subpar (4.70 ERA, 5.42 xFIP) and role unknown, I can’t buy into him with just a few weeks left. If the pitcher can’t be used this week or next, they’re irrelevant to me. I don’t have time for everyone to figure things out. I’m out.
Injured Starters
Corbin Burnes: Started his rehab assignment in AAA.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | 38% | 51% | 13% |
| Corbin Burnes | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Andrew Painter | 36% | 54% | 18% |
| Hayden Wesneski | 36% | 41% | 5% |
| Anthony Kay | 29% | 34% | 5% |
| Walker Buehler | 27% | 32% | 5% |
| David Peterson | 27% | 32% | 5% |
| Dean Kremer | 27% | 29% | 2% |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Zebby Matthews | 25% | 39% | 14% |
| Matthew Liberatore | 25% | 32% | 7% |
| Chris Bassitt | 20% | 29% | 9% |
| Randy Vasquez | 19% | 23% | 4% |
| Cal Quantrill | 17% | 34% | 17% |
| George Klassen | 15% | 27% | 12% |
| Jeffrey Springs | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Randy Dobnak | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| Andrew Alvarez | 12% | 23% | 11% |
| Elmer Rodriguez | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Ryan Gusto | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Jose Urquidy | 3% | 10% | 7% |
Relievers: Save-based ranks
Ben Joyce: Good reliever who is the closer.
Mason Montgomery: Good reliever who is the closer.
Jordan Romano: Poor reliever who is the closer.
Elvis Alvarado: Average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Calvin Faucher: Good reliever who could be the closer.
Justin Martinez: Good reliever who may be the closer.
Hogan Harris: Average reliever who is sharing the closer duties.
Rico Garcia: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.
Nate Pearson: Below-average reliever who seems to be sharing the closer duties.
Félix Bautista: Great reliever who is almost off the IL.
Erik Sabrowski: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Daniel Duarte: Average reliever who is the backup closer.
Paul Blackburn: Below-average reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Nate Lavender: Good reliever who is a step or two away from closing.
Drew Sommers: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Joyce | 35% | 39% | 4% |
| Mason Montgomery | 30% | 53% | 23% |
| Hogan Harris | 25% | 26% | 1% |
| Rico Garcia | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Jordan Romano | 18% | 19% | 1% |
| Justin Martinez | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Erik Sabrowski | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Felix Bautista | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Daniel Duarte | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Elvis Alvarado | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Paul Blackburn | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Calvin Faucher | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Nate Pearson | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Nathan Lavender | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Drew Sommers | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
On Ortiz I vaguely recall Pat Murphy saying he struggles against a certain type of righty. The Brewers tried sitting Durbin against RH w good sinkers for awhile last year, if they are doing that with Ortiz maybe that has skewed his splits
After looking under the hood, I am dubious that Painter is a must-add in shallow leagues. He has done well recently against mostly weaker-hitting teams, for sure. And he was a highly-regarded prospect. But his fastball is getting crushed, and guys who can’t throw their fastballs past hitters tend to be very volatile. In shallow leagues you only go looking for players who you think will play like All Stars, and I’m just not sure Painter is trending that way. Yet.
Painter’s problem is the first inning. In six starts since he was called up on July 31, he’s allowed 14 runs (12 in the first inning) and 13 BBs (7 in the first inning). After the first inning, he has a 0.66 ERA.
Note that Mickey Gasper (listed as a C add) was sent down today, and Trevor Story was activated.