Waiver Wire Analysis (10/2/22)

by
October 2, 2022

With just three days to go, I didn’t focus on any long-term values. It’s all who can help a team this week. My main focus was on ranking the projected starters who are rostered in under 40% of leagues. At some point Sunday afternoon, I will try to go back through and check projected rotations to see if I need to add or remove anyone.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Batters

Triston Casas: Available power-only bat who has 5 HR in 81 PA.

Bryan De La Cruz: Eleven straight starts while hitting .375/.409/.734 with 5 HR in September.

Dylan Moore: Four straight starts (2 vs LHP at 2B, 2 vs RHP in OF) might make him a stolen base play (21 SB in 243 PA) if the playing time continues.

CJ Abrams: Batting second with 6 SB on the season.

Seth Brown: Good when starting. He will likely sit Monday against a lefty.

Oswaldo Cabrera: Balanced bat (5 HR, 3 SB, .250 AVG) who plays every day.

Rodolfo Castro Some power (11 HR) and speed (5 HR) in 257 PA.

Nate Eaton: Stolen base machine (11 SB in 111 PA) but just three starts in the last five games.

Nick Gordon: He is turning into a well-rounded hitter.

Edward Olivares: He’s not showing off his speed (2 SB) but is hitting for average (.298 AVG) and some power (.142 ISO).

Gio Urshela: Volume play with multiple position eligibility.

Myles Straw: A stolen base only play with 20 swipes on the season.

Jarred Kelenic: He’s hitting .267/.333/.667 since being promoted … again.

Raimel Tapia: He’s playing (seven straight starts) and hitting OK (.670 OPS).

Ezequiel Tovar: He is not embarrassing himself so far (.564 OPS) but it’ll be three more games against the Dodgers.

Carlos Santana: He is sort of a first baseman and sort of hits for power.

Miguel Andújar: Four straight starts since joining the Pirates.

Brandon Marsh: On the strong side of a platoon with two righties on the schedule.

Tony Kemp: He plays and has 7 HR and 11 SB on the season.

Ji Hwan Bae: He has started six of seven games since being called up.

Will Brennan: On the strong side of a platoon with two righties scheduled over the three games.

Catchers

Nick Fortes: Playing over half the time while hitting .240/.314/.397 with 8 HR and 5 SB.

Danny Jansen: Power-only bat.

Reese McGuire: He’s playing and not a complete zero at the plate (.675 OPS)

Francisco Álvarez: While a great prospect, he just not playing enough to matter.

CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change%
Seth Brown 1B OAK 38% 40% 2%
Gio Urshela 3B MIN 36% 37% 1%
C.J. Abrams SS WAS 34% 35% 1%
Triston Casas 1B BOS 33% 35% 2%
Jarred Kelenic RF SEA 30% 33% 3%
Danny Jansen C TOR 30% 31% 1%
Francisco Alvarez C NYM 27% 31% 4%
Nick Gordon LF MIN 27% 30% 3%
Myles Straw CF CLE 27% 29% 2%
Brandon Marsh CF PHI 22% 23% 1%
Carlos Santana DH SEA 21% 22% 1%
Tony Kemp 2B OAK 20% 21% 1%
Rodolfo Castro 2B PIT 18% 19% 1%
Ezequiel Tovar SS COL 15% 17% 2%
Oswaldo Cabrera RF NYY 13% 29% 16%
Raimel Tapia LF TOR 10% 11% 1%
Edward Olivares RF KC 8% 9% 1%
Nathan Eaton RF KC 6% 11% 5%
Nick Fortes C MIA 5% 6% 1%
Bryan De La Cruz RF MIA 4% 16% 12%
Dylan Moore RF SEA 4% 6% 2%
Reese McGuire C BOS 2% 3% 1%
Miguel Andujar DH PIT 2% 3% 1%
Ji-Hwan Bae SS PIT 2% 3% 1%
Will Brennan LF CLE 2% 3% 1%

Starters

Bailey Ober (28%)

Bryce Elder (19%): Major 2H improvements

Braxton Garrett (34%)

Bailey Falter (32%)

Davis Martin (3%)

Jake Odorizzi (34%)

Hayden Wesneski (13%)

Michael Lorenzen (26%)

Dean Kremer (35%)

Mitch Keller (29%)

Graham Ashcraft (26%): Struggled since returning.

Zack Greinke (36%): Possibly Greinke’s last game, I could see him try for something special.

Mitch White (7%): Win play only. Could blow up a team’s ratios.

Wade Miley (22%): Some places don’t have him starting.

Daniel Lynch (10%): 3.31 xFIP in September. Fewer walks. More groundballs.

Ken Waldichuk (17%): Against Ohtani. Low chance for a Win.

Adrian Martinez (3%)

Luis Cessa (4%)

Johan Oviedo (4%): The Cardinals could be sitting most regulars during the season’s final game.

Rich Hill (10%)

Frankie Montas (UNK): Gamble for those needing upside.

Glenn Otto (10%): Gets Yankees last start. Could be a weak lineup.

The Line: I’d probably use a reliever than any of the following starters. 

Mike Baumann (1%)

Louie Varland (2%)

Javier Assad (5%)

Josh Winder (7%)

Jordan Lyles (37%)

Tyler Alexander (3%)

Garrett Hill (1%)

Bryse Wilson (2%)

Erick Fedde (5%)

Ryan Feltner (3%)

Cory Abbott (1%)

Tommy Henry (4%)

Chad Kuhl (18%)

José Ureña (3%)

Jonathan Heasley (4%)

Shelby Miller (0%): He has looked good since returning from the IL but this start might not happen. And he wouldn’t throw many innings.

Tommy Milone (UNK)

Spencer Howard (UNK)

Relievers

Check out today’s Bullpen Report.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Another Old Guymember
1 year ago

Thank you so much for your insights all season, Jeff. I want to take this space recommend serious or even semi-serious fantasy baseball players purchase Tanner and Jeff’s guide, The Process. It has altered so many of my strategies for the better. I also seem to learn something each time I pick it up to review a portion of it.

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