Tyler Anderson is Cutting Up the Competition

Tyler Anderson came into focus on the fantasy landscape this week after a pair of gems in a 2-start week, including an 8-inning win on Sunday. His 2.45 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 14.7 innings absolutely helped him earn some more attention, but maybe he deserved the attention prior to last week given that he had a 3.38 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his first five starts. Let’s see what he is doing this year to net a 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 41.3 IP so far.

The 31-year-old lefty has had runs of viability throughout his career, but with four of his first five seasons spent in Colorado, it was tough to consistently rely on him. He moved to San Francisco last year and earned some sleeper buzz only to essentially be what he was in Colorado with a much lower strikeout rate:

He survived the massive strikeout dip by halving his home run rate from 1.5 (2016-19 rate, he was actually at an obscene 3.5 mark in ’19) to 0.75, which isn’t too surprising given the move from Coors Field to Oracle Park. Although it is notable that the HR dip came despite a surge in flyball rate as he went up 11 points from 2019 rate to 44%.

Anderson has held the HR rate improvements with Pittsburgh, posting a 0.65 mark so far with his flyball rate coming back down to 36% while his HR/FB rate has remained excellent. It was at just 6% last year and sits at 7% so far this year. He isn’t just leveraging PNC Park, either. He has allowed 2 homers in 67 home PA while allowing just 1 homer in 97 road PA.

He has a better ERA at home (2.70 compared to 3.28 on the road), but his skills have been markedly better on the road. He has a 0.89 WHIP in 24.7 road innings with a 26% K rate while his WHIP at home is 1.26 with an 18% K rate in 16.7 innings. His home/road schedule split has been pretty even. He has actually faced the Cubs and Padres in five of his seven starts with a couple trips to Chicago while getting them once in PNC Park and a home-and-home with San Diego. His other two starts are a trip to Detroit and home start against Kansas City.

The first two things I usually look at when assessing a pitcher breakout are velocity and arsenal changes, so it is time to get into those. He hasn’t really experienced any velo changes of note. His 90-mph fastball velo is down from his Colorado days (91.6 mph) but right in line with last year’s 90.2 mark. The cutter is down a tick to 84 mph, but I’m not sure that is having a major impact one way or the other. Speaking of the cutter, his key arsenal change has been a 10-point jump in usage to 28%.

This elevated usage makes a lot of sense when you realize that his cutter has been the best one in baseball by pitch value. It’s at 5.6, well above Aaron Civale sitting in second at 4.0 so far. A .236 wOBA in 53 PA with his cutter is far and away a career best and a massive improvement over last year’s .383 in 43 PA. It hasn’t been part of his recovered strikeout rate, though.

That has actually come to pass with a less-is-more fastball profile. Like many starters across the league, he is using his four-seamer less often but generating better results. The usage rate is down 6 points to a career low 35% but has seen his strikeout rate with it soar to 35%, up from 15% last year and well above his previous career high of 19% (2018).

Anderson has made some major location changes with his four-seamer: attacking more with a 7-point In-Zone jump, working it on the outer half quite a bit more with a 10-point jump to 53%, and in the upper half of the zone more often (also up 7 points). These changes have fostered a 6-point jump in swinging strike rate with the pitch, up to 14% (14th among pitchers with 200 four-seamers throw)), while his whiff rate (misses per swing) is up 11 points to 30% which slots him 12th.

We have some tangible changes from a pitcher who was actually pretty solid prior to this year (4.36 SIERA from 2016-20) and it seems like there is some sustainability here that we might be more familiar with if he hadn’t spent the bulk of his career in the pitcher hell that is Colorado.

I have Anderson has a team streamer – a guy you don’t start every time but put on your reserve instead of just cutting him like a standard streamer. There is enough swing-and-miss to sustain a 20%+ K rate and the move from Coors to one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league (well, two counting SF last year) gives credibility to his home run rate improvements. I tabbed him as a Watchlist guy for mid-sized leagues on April 30th, but he has moved beyond that and now should at least be on the Watchlist for shallower leagues (10 teams and fewer). He gets a revenge game this week against the Giants.