Trusting the Track Record

As we fire up the second half – albeit an inequitable one with teams averaging just 73 games left (three teams as high as 76) – we certainly feel like we know some new things. It certainly feels like the emergence of Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado is real. They’ve had the talent and pedigree while showing glimpses of this greatness at the big league level and this year they appear to have busted out. That said, it is still just some 80-odd games out of 377 for Machado and 329 for Arenado so they are hardly guaranteed to stay at this level.

We’re always looking for value and surplus in this game. During draft season, Arenado was being picked as a top 50 pick because many thought he could produce as a top 20 pick (he has). Machado was drafted as a top 120 pick with the idea that he could become a top 50 pick (how’s 7th overall?). We don’t have another draft season to shuffle the deck at the All-Star break which is why I’m more concerned with the other end today, the guys who are struggling relative to their established track record.

Even if you believe in Machado and Arenado, they are cost prohibitive at this point so we need to scour the waiver wire and trade market for our value. A good way to do that is to look for the opposite of Machado and Arenado, the guys who are playing terribly. Or at least well below their level. It may not seem like it when a player is at his worst, but guys with established track records are awfully good at finding their level, even when they are far from it – whether on the high or low end.

Here are a bunch of guys who have severely underperformed against expectations and compared to their established track records. Barring injury – reported or hidden – these guys should be markedly better the rest of the way:

It’s so easy to forget about anything that hasn’t happened in the 2015 season when it comes analyzing a player, but these first two-plus months are just a piece of the puzzle. The recency of the performance makes it seem like it should be the driving force, but even 300+ PA isn’t enough to overpower three times that or well over a 1000 in many cases accumulated prior to the season. It is of course a delicate balance.

Completely ignoring what we’ve seen will have you missing the boat on some real skill changes with guys, but overweighting it will have you looking foolish if you’ve given up on a proven performer or over-invested on someone playing over his head. How about our two future superstars?  

They are both still projected to be above average players, but well off of their first half pace. It feels foolish to consider trading either given how instrumental they have been to your season thus far, but if you can get the returns of a 145 wRC+ player by trading Machado, you have to consider it as it’s very unlikely he remains at that level. For either of these two, you could definitely get a solid piece (vague, I know, but I’m thinking like a Brandon Belt-type), plus someone from the list of strugglers above, and maybe two of those guys in the right deal.

The phrase “buy-low” is constantly thrown around the fantasy community, but it’s often tied to guys who can’t really be had for anything resembling a “low” price. No one is selling Carlos Carrasco for any kind of discount right now. Sure, he has a 4.07 ERA, but everything else is on point. Buying low is getting in when it really stinks, when it’s actually tough to pull the trigger on acquiring someone because there aren’t underlying signs of forthcoming greatness, just an established track record and a reasonable expectation of health.