Troy Tulowitzki Leaves Coors

Troy Tulowitzki managed to stay healthy enough to accumulate the most plate appearances he has since 2011. Surely that would have resulted in an excellent fantasy season, and perhaps some profit for those owners who were willing to take on such an injury risk. But that’s not what happened. Though he still finished third among shortstops in fantasy value, he earned just below $10 and posted the second worst wOBA of his career. If that wasn’t bad enough, he was then traded out of the cozy confines of Coors Field, making forecasting his near-term future difficult.

There have been a number of star hitters in Colorado that eventually moved onto less green pastures. The question was always how they would perform without the benefit of that thin air. In 2015, Coors Field was by far the best offensive environment in baseball. It sported a 117 overall park factor, while the next highest was just 106. We know that the park boosts home runs, but it also inflates all types of hits, resulting in serious BABIP inflation.

Unfortunately, Tulowitzki’s time in Colorado came to an end when he was traded as part of a blockbuster deadline deal. And although he hit better at home like players typically do, his home/road splits weren’t actually as stark as others who called Coors home for a significant period of time:

Troy Tulowitzki Home/Away Splits

Home / Away	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
Home	9.9%	15.6%	0.235	0.340	0.404	128
Away	9.6%	17.2%	0.188	0.301	0.350	116

Those are actually some fairly reasonable splits, which should give us confidence that Tulo won’t suffer too dramatic a decline in a full season with the Blue Jays. But decline he did upon his arrival in Toronto. It’s a tiny sample, of course, but all we have right now of the non-Rockie Tulowitzki:

Troy Tulowitzki With Toronto

BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	wOBA	wRC+
7.7%	23.0%	0.141	0.291	0.307	91

Compared to his career home marks, his power declined precipitously, while his BABIP plummeted. This could be due to the departure from Coors or simply a random 183 plate appearance sample in which Tulo was just not at his best. Coors Field boosts line drives, but his LD% spiked with Toronto, while his IFFB% dropped. Normally, those are good signs and go hand-in-hand with a jump in BABIP. So it’s a bit curious that his BABIP fell drastically from the .351 mark he posted while with Colorado (though not all of that came at Coors). Maybe a bit of poor luck was involved.

With regards to the power, his HR/FB rate actually increased with Toronto, but his ISO tumbled thanks to a decline in his fly ball rate. Essentially, he traded fly balls for line drives. It didn’t work this time, but this explanation suggests no one should panic about his future performance just yet. Or, at least based on his small sample results this year with the Jays.

It would be silly to ignore the fact that regardless of what park he called home this year, his skills eroded. His walk and strikeout rates were career worsts, while his ISO and wOBA marks second worst. Typically, we would chalk this up to the brittle Tulowitzki playing through injury. But he remained relatively healthy all season, with the exception of the rib injury he suffered in Toronto that ended his year early. So it didn’t appear like he was suffering through any sort of injuries throughout the season that would hamper his performance.

He’s now on the wrong side of 30 though, so perhaps a gradual decline should be expected. The good news is that he didn’t move to a pitcher’s haven, so at least he will continue to enjoy a hitting friendly home park. Furthermore, the Blue Jays lineup remains absolutely stacked, giving him plenty of opportunities to drive in runners.

The injury risk will always be there. But at least now he should come cheaper than he has in a while, possibly since after his 2008 season. It might make him a decent value for a change and a worthy target at a weak position.